Author Archives: tonych

9:34 am The Ag Index appears to have finally made a reversal yesterday, at day 287 of the Master Cycle, matching the 10-year Treasury at 285 days.  I don’t know what the relationship is, other than the rising cost of … Continue reading →

2:45 pm There’ may still be a bounce, but not from this level.  SPX is in serious short gamma, which may only be controlled in the overnight market.  It’s going lower for now, but we may see a bounce in … Continue reading →

3:21 pm It appears that the VIX may close above the 50-day Moving Average at 23.61.  Another reason for selling the SPX. ZeroHedge comments, “The pendulum is about to swing the other way… As we detailed early last week, since the … Continue reading →

2:19 pm SPX is consolidating at short-term resistance at 4066.66 this afternoon and may pull back to the 50-day Moving Average at 4027.60.  There may be one final surge higher on Monday to the mid-Cycle resistance at 4101.77 or the … Continue reading →

11:06 am This morning I had given a “worst case” scenario for the SPX to retrace 61.8% of its decline from mid-August.  The Wave structure may be developing for a much quicker resolution.  Wave C may be complete at the … Continue reading →

12:16 pm VIX has been remarkably calm, but that may be about to change.  The Cycles Model suggests a spike in volatility beginning tomorrow and extending through (and possibly beyond) monthly options expiration, possibly peaking the week after.  Keep an … Continue reading →

3:22 pm The SPX has clearly violated the neckline of its most recent Head & Shoulders formation at 3903.65 by declining to 3886.75.  It is currently struggling to get back above 3925.00 where short gamma begins.  Even if it succeeds, … Continue reading →

12:42 pm SPX topped out at 4018.43, just above the 50-day Moving Average at 4011.78.  I have been considering the alternate count and have put it on the chart.  This calls for another week of decline to an area near … Continue reading →

10:31 am SPX has made a new low beneath the support level at 3910.74.  Should the SPX go significantly lower, it may be set up for a limit down day.  For the moment, it must emerge above the confines of … Continue reading →

12:10 pm SPX continues to linger near the 50-day Moving Average.  However, the decline is no longer impulsive, which suggests a short squeeze may be at hand.  A suggested target may be between 4100.00 and 4150.00 with the mid-Cycle resistance … Continue reading →