Author Archives: tonych

2:32 pm VIX has been challenging its trendline at 18.30 today.  While most investors won’t infer a buy signal in the VIX until it rallies over 25.00, crossing the lower trendline suggests the decline is over.  It may be a … Continue reading →

7:20 am Good Morning! NDX futures lagged in the overnight session until 6:00 am, when it began to surge to a new futures high, just in time for Index options expiration at the open.  Open interest in index calls at … Continue reading →

12:00 pm An interesting move in TNX on day 252 of the Master Cycle.  It may be declining to 14.97, the bottom of Wave [a] to create an Expanded Flat correction.  As usual, the trend-followers have tired of their UST … Continue reading →

3:04 pm Using the Cycle Top trendline as an Ending Diagonal, we may take a small (aggressive) short position here.  There’s a long way to go to get confirmation, so patience is still the key word. ZeroHedge observes, “Having surged … Continue reading →

9:55 am NDX just made a new all-time high, confirming the Ending Diagonal formation in it, also.  It appears that the Cycle Top resistance at 14058.60 may be the stopper.  A nearby trendline (not shown) is at 14100.00.  Standby for … Continue reading →

1:23 pm The tension may have eased with the TNX today after a mediocre auction.  At least no sparks were flying.  The current Master Cycle ends on options expiration.  We may see a test of the 50-day Moving Average at … Continue reading →

4:30 pm The panic bid in the last half hour set back the bearish view…at least until after options expiation.  The reason why is that Wave iii cannot be the smallest Wave.  By default, we may have just ended Wave … Continue reading →

3:30 pm Will 4098.19 be the top?  The last half hour of the market day may bring in the sellers.  The two hour Cycle top acts like an Ending Diagonal trendline and is at 4085.58.  Aggressive shorts may be considered … Continue reading →

7:15 am The Shanghai Composite appears to completed its Master Cycle on day 267.  The new Cycle has all the earmarks of a panic Cycle.  This is made even more probable should liquidity be curtailed. ZeroHedge remarks, “One month after … Continue reading →

8:20 am Good Morning! SPX futures have dipped to 4052.62 this morning, not enough to call a reversal, but showing some exhaustion.  By coincidence, the Cycle Top support at 4034.50 is precisely at the Fibonacci target for this secular rally.  … Continue reading →