The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
10:00 am
The Banking Index surged above the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.38, reaching for the 52-day Moving Average at 177.86. The Master Cycle is a week overdue, but price appears to be dictating the time on its own terms. Today we see a burst of energy that may exhaust the Cycle.
ZeroHedge remarks, “I‘ve been harping on the problems in commercial real estate for years now, and one of the more interesting developments over the last several months has been how little anybody seems to be talking it them anymore.
For a while, commercial real estate was supposedly going to bring down the banking system. Then the regional bank failures came and went, the Federal Reserve helped stabilize the financial system, and the market collectively decided that the problem had been contained.”
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 7706.50, remaining aboe the 52-day Moving Average at 7698.84. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 7702.00, so it may retrace to the minimum standard retracement. There may be a possible surge of trending strength starting today and extending into next week as the election progresses. It may not assure victory for either side, but it shows market confidence may be on the upswing.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower, with Nasdaq contracts sliding as Alphabet’s ugly search miss revived the “is AI capex paying off” debate…”
The premarket VIX may be consolidating on the mixed news. The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may remain “sleepy” over the next two weeks.
The US 10-year Bond Yield declined down to 50.11, above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00 while the 52-day Moving Average rises to 49.96. The TNX may xontinue to consolidate along the neckline for another week before a new burst of Trending Strength arrives. It hovers on a buy signal at the 52-day at this time. It may test the low at 49.39 before moving above its consolidation renge at 50.50.
The US Dollar may have successfully tested the head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80, bu remains beneath the Cycle Top. The Cycles Model suggests a possible breakout this weekend.
The Euro declined to its Head & Shulders neckline this morning and remains poised above it. The Cycles Model suggests that some disturbance this weekend may jolt the Euro beneath the neckline, activating the Head & Shoulders formation. The decline may last to the end of November.
ZeroHedge observes, “Hot on the heels of ECB President Lagarde’s statement about early retirement, The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as was fully expected.
The deposit rate was left at 2.5%, as predicted by almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg.”
Crude oil continues to consolidate as it may be building energy for the next probe higher. There may be an imminent burst of Trending Strength that may propel WTI to its Cycle Top at 111.75, above the neckline at 110.75. It remains on a buy signal that may last for the next 3-4 weeks.
Spot Gold is consolidating above the trendline at 3950.00. While the Master Cycle may be complete at the October 23 low, there is room for yet another probe lower. A burst of volatility may be imminent, allowing gold to reach its target at 3950.00.
Bitcoin remains in consolidation above its October 24 Master Cycle low and beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 81803.00. Bitcoin is due for a burst of volatility/energy that may propel it above resistance. A buy signal awaits a rise above the 52-day MOving Average at 81800.00 with confirmation above the necklne at 82200.00.
The Agriculture Index has met the mid-Cycle support at 384.12 this morning in what may turn out to be a high volatility day. Both time and price have met at an ideal Cycle setting. The Cycles Model calls for a 3-4 week rally that may test the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.