The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:30 pm

SPX has traversed beneath yesterday’s low at 7669.66, confirming the sell signal.  The Bear market welcomes you!

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7764.60, near its 61.8% retracement level at 7763.60.  The retracement may be complete.  The Cycles Model suggests a downturn this morning, potentially leaving Monday’s high as the terminus of the Master Cycle.  However, should it exceed Monday’s high, the Master /Cycle may be extended to today.  Regardless of today’s events, it would not be advisable to be long on Monday.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, and small caps are leading, as the crowded-trade unwind that hammered chips, momentum and AI baskets all week takes a breather: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said nothing about rates at the IMF gathering in Bangkok overnight (traders took the silence as a dovish gift, cutting October hike odds to 14% from 26%)…”

NDX futures fell to a morning low at 29760.50 before a bounce.  It is currently back beneath its 52-day Moving Aaverage at 29861.67 and on a sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests the declin e may continue to mid-December.  The 103-day Moving Average is at 29022.00.  Action may become ugly beneath that level.

The premarket VIX declined to 115.94 this morning, remaining above the 52-day Moving Average at 15.52 and on a buy signal.  The VIX remains “sleepy” for most investors, waiting for a breakout above the September high at 18.94.  The VIX hasn’t hit the mid-20’s since June and no one is expecting it to go any higher.  However, this 17-month Triangle formation may have matured and with it, a whole new trend may emerge.  Triangles generally make a complete retracement when finished.

The US 10-year Bond Yield gapped higher this morning after making a reversal near the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  The uptrend may be about to resume, slowly at first, then turning violent toward the end of the month.  What’s coming may be a major bond liquidation led by China, the largest foreign holder of US bonds.

The US Dollar declined to challenge the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80 this morning.    This condition may not last, as volatility may be about to explode.

The Euro rose to challenge its Cycle Bottom this morning at 112.34.  Should it close beneath it, the Euro may resume its decline.  A surge in volatility may arrive this weekend.

Crude oil continues its advance after yesterday’s surge.  While the possibility of a partial retracement  remains, the general trend is higher. with the 52-day Moving Average at 90.16 providing the ultimate support.

Gold may be failing to thrive at a critical point in its Cycle.  This is a concern if it fails to thrive, since volatility may be about to explode in gold.

The Agriculture Index continues its decline to finish possibly at 400.00, a round number support.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible reversal either Monday or Tuesday.  This is an excellent place to add shares or futures of Ag-related companies or commodities.

Bitcoin remains near its trendline with no clear direction in October.  Yesterday’s low is suspect, but bitcoin may have another week in its master Cycle.  Should its remain above the trendline at 82200.00, it may probe the Cycle Top at 89083.00 in the next week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7681.50 this morning, beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7705.53.  Should it follow through beneath the 52-day, the SPX may issue a sell signal, even if it bounces back.  The Master Cycle may have ended on Monday with a possible truncation of the last fractal probe,   Truncations are rare, but the timing for the reversal was spot-on with the Cycles Model.  Should the SPX rise back above the 52-day Moving Average, a bounce may ensue, possibly lasting to Monday.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower as the AI unwind goes global – Korea’s Kospi crashed into a bear market and tripped circuit breakers…”

NDX futures declined to 29530.00 this morning, beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29839.00.  Should it bounce back above the 50-day, the bounce may last only a couple of days.  The NDX Master Cycle high landed on Thursday, October 8.  If correct, the ensuing decline may last to mid-December.

INDU futures rose to 51874.40 this morning, remaining beneath Intermediate resistance at 52027.26.  The Industrials peaked on Tuesday near the 52-day Moving Average at 52583.35.  It has been on a sell signal since September 8 when it declined beneah the 52-day Moving Average.  An aggressive sell signal was made in early August.

ZeroHedge temarks, “For the past few years, the market has been obsessed with the next big thing. AI, semiconductors, momentum, whatever happens to have the hottest chart and the most ridiculous valuation.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has been doing what Warren Buffett always does: buying quality, ignoring the noise, and letting everyone else have their fun.”

The premarket VIX rose to 17.64 this morning, challenging the trading channel trendline near 17.50 and approaching the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.27.  Note that the VIX also had a truncated Cycle Bottom last Friday, warning us of this week’s event in equities.

The US 10-year Bond Yield dropped to 50.79 this morning.  The next support is Intermediate support at 50.55 followed by the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00.  The Cycles Model may allow anotheer day or two of decline with the neckline as the potential low.  Note that the H&S may already be activates, so TNX must find a support from which to resume its uptrend.  The week of October 26 looks par\ticularly volatile.

The US Dollar pulled back from its extended Master Cycle high this morning, bouncing from the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  The pullback may last another day or two, but the trendline has a high probability of remaining intact.  Trennding strength may make a comeback over the wekend.

The Euro rose to 112.41 this morningas it may complete a retracement to the Cycle Bottom resistance at 112.45.  The bounce may not last as the downtrend may regain its strength over the weekend.

ZeroHedge observes, “Social unrest in France, Belgium, and now Albania raises the risk of riot contagion across Europe. Young rioters’ involvement gives far-left groups opportunities to exploit grievances and channel them into broader anti-government mobilization.”

Crude oil is consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range,, finding a possible floor at Intermeidate support at 93.65.  The uptrend may gain in intensity as the end of October approaches.  It is possible that a breakout may occur by early November.

Gold may have made an early Master Cycle low on October 7.  Yesterday’s low did not break down beneath that level.  While there is still time for a lower low, the stronger likelihood may be higher.  There is no signal in either direction for the time being.

Bitcoin declined beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 81108.00, leaving a sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests at least another week of possible decline.  A lot may happen in a week, so longs are at risk.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7418.40 this morning as it approaches its target near 7950.00.  While there is no assurance that it may reach that target, the likelihood becomes stronger if the current probe higher reaches or exceed 7876.00.  In that instance, the fractal may be expanding.  Should it not reach that level, the fractal may be shrinking, leaving a lower final target.  The dominant factors are the massive issuance of new equjties with the lockups expiring this year, coupled with a buyback blackout, wavering confidence and diminshed liquidity.

NDX futures rose to 30676.00 this morning before easing back.  Asset managers are still long, trailed by retail investors who are coming back after the summer rout.  For the time being, the trend is still higher.  While the Cycle Top is at 34422.50, it may not be likely that the NDX reaches that level.  The rest of the week may tell the full story.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, with small caps leading and tech lagging, as traders brace for what is expected to be the hottest monthly CPI print since the spring…”

The premarket VIX rose to 15.72 this morning, challenging the 52-day Moving Average.  Should it close above it, a buy signal may be issued.  Investors are complacent, as more calls than puts are being purchased.  The Master Cycle may have terminated on Friday, October 9, allowing the VIX the ability to start a new uptrend.

The US 10-year Bond Yield bounced above its Cycle Top support at 51.53.  I had mentioned earlier that the Cycle Top would provide a formidable support, despite the normal practice of pulling back to the neckline.  The CPI report affirms that the trend is much stronger than anticipated.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Expectations were for a hot headline and cool core heading into this morning’s most-watched macro signal from CPI with the October FOMC decision on the line. FedSpeak has clearly pushed the market to back away from a hawkish view, today’s data may force a change.”

The US Dollar rose to 102.72, breaking out above the previous high.  Should the USD continue rising, this may be labeled a running correction.  That is, the normal retracement may be cut short.  Dollar shorts have left the pan and are in the fire, giving impetus to the rally.  The Cycles Model warned that today would show trending strength.

The Euro cut short ita retracement and made a new low this morning at 111.16.  Should the decline continue, we may label this move a “running correction” where bounces/retracements are cut short and the trend extends.

Crude oil rose to 95.99 this morning as it continues a steady advance higher.  There is a slight possibility of a pullback to the Intermediate support at 63.30 before resuming its rally.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:20 am

The Banking Indes may have performed a possible Key Reversal at the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.20.  This is not the end of  a Master Cycle.  Instead it may be viewed as a mid-Cycle reversal.  It may be about to test the neckline of its head & Shoulders formation at 165.50.  Should it break through, the downside target may be the Cycle Bottom currently at 149.01.

ZeroHedge remarks, “And Q3 earnings season is off with a mixed report from JPMorgan, which moments ago reported results that showed a surprising drop in FICC trading revenue which sent the stock sliding in the premarket trading, but then promptly erased the entire loss after the company revealed Net Interest Income guidance that came about $1 billion higher than expected.”

Further, ZeroHedge compares, “In a carbon copy of JPMorgan, which kicked off Q3 earnings season this morning, Goldman’s equities traders blew past expectations in the third quarter, while its fixed-income and rates-trading counterparts fell far below Wall Street’s estimates.”

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated this morning inside yesterday’s trading range.  It is in the final days of its current Master Cycle.There may be a new all-time high, but the market has lost momentum.  Without that momentum, earlier targets are getting a haircut.  In fact, the fractal structure may put a limit on the upside at 7950.00.  Whether it reaches that price under current circomstances or not is open to debate.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are mixed with the Nasdaq lagging as the AI rout that started on Wall Street on Monday ricocheted through Asia, where the Kospi crashed as much as 7% after Broadcom’s Hock Tan likened AI investing to a casino…”

The Dow Jones Industrials futures is the only index that is posibie this morning, reaching 52311.10.    The positive is that it has exceeded its Intermediate resistance at 51138.00  The next resistance is the 52-day Moving Average at 52610.30.  A leap above that level may give the Dow a second wind, as investorsa take flight to quality in a deteriorating market.

The premarket VIX rose to 15.61 this morning, testimg tjhe 52-day Moving Average at 15.53.  A close above the 52-day offers a confirmed buy signal.   The VIX may have reached the downside terminus of its Master Cycle on Friday.  This particular Triangle formation did not have an elongated tail, as several recent formations have shown.  This shortened version may be viewed as a truncation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures tumbled to 51.70 whils the cash market bottomed at 51.85.  The Cycles Model demonstrates a potential weakness for another week or so, allowing the TNX to decline.  The normal retracement would be a pullback to the necklne of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00.  However, the Cycle Top at 51.37 provides a very strong support structure that may not allow a full retracement.  While many analysts are expecting a deeper pullback fueled by a potential short squeeze, the bond market may ofer a nasty surprise.

The US Dollar may be proving a point made for the bond index.  It has stopped its decline at the Cycle Top at 102.21.  In addition, the Cycles Model sugests that a resumption of trending strength may be imminent.  Shoulld the USD bounce above the Cycle Top, the oucome may be a possible panic rally engaging the Head & Shoulders formation.

The Euro made a modst bounce this morningas out of its Master Cycle low made yesterday.  It shows the inverse of the picture for the TNX and USD.  To reiterate, the normal retracement beneath a Head & Shoulders formation would be the neckline at 113.25.  While that is possible, a possibly higher probability may be that the Cycle Bottom at 112.61 may provide enough resistance to turn the Euro back down.  Should that event occur, a potential free-fall event may take place in the next week.

Crude oil has eased down this morning, testing the Intermediate support at 92.67.  Should support hold, crude may advance higher, with the neckline of the Head  Shoulders formation at 106.75 in mnd.

ZeroHedge observes, “The diesel agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not solve the diesel shortage, considering the magnitude of the problem created by years of misguided, wrongly called “environmental policies.”

Gold may be forming its final push in the current Master Cycle, due to terminate this week.  Overhead resistance lies at 4297.85.   The lower support ,ay be the trendline at 3942.00.  Resolution may be imminent.

The Agriculture Index is rising beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 418.51.  However, the resitance there may send GKX back down to a marginal new low.  It is approaching its Master Cycle terminus this week.  Critical support may lie at 400.00,, round number support.

Bitcoin is slowly lifting itself out of the doldrums, as strength gradually returns.  It may come quickly by the weekend.  The neckline of the head & Shoulders formation is still being tested at 82200.00.  Hwever, it may have found additional support at the 52-day Moving Average at 51018.00.  The  Cycles Model allows another 1-2 weeks of uptrend for the current master Cycle.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:37 am

The Banking Index is on a bounce to test the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.19 this week.  The Cycles Model points to Thursdy as a high volatility day where the BKX may resume its decline through the Head & Shoulders formation.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7838.90 thism orning, approaching it all-time high.  There is no conviction here, as fewer companies participate in the rally.  The Friday Hi-Lo Index closed at minus 81.00, revealing that 81 more companies on the NYSE made new lows rather than new highs.  The Hi-Lo Index has not closed positive since August 28.  In addition, only 182 companies out of 2800 on the NYSE closed above the 50-day Moving Average on Friday.  The big attraction is still AI, but a rift may be developing between Korea’s memory chips and Taiwan’s semiconductor components.  The Cycles Model suggests the end may be near.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are flat, with S&P contracts clinging to small gains and the Nasdaq slipping into the red as memory stocks slide, after a weekend of contradictory geopolitical headlines whipsawed oil…”

The premarket VIX climbed to 15.56 this morning as it rises above the Triangle trendline and approaches the 52-day Moving Average at 15.63.  A buy signal above the 52-day may be imminent.  Should that be so, the ensuing rally may last to the end of November.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures declined to 52.25 this morning, suggesting a resumption of the corrective decline.  While the normal retracement would backtrack to the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00, the fractal structure suggests the Cycle Top may provide support for the pullback.  Stay on alert, since the Cycles Model may be offering the support level, but the timing may not be clear.

The US Dollar is consolidating above the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation.  It may test the neckline at 101.80 before rising higher.  However, time is running out on this Cycle and new Trending Strength may return in just a few days.

The Euro may have reached its Master Cycle low on Wednesday, October 7.  A bounce is in the works that may test the neckline at 113.25.  The Cycle Bottom resistance at 112.70 may cut the bounce short.

Crude oil has risen above Intermediate support/resistance at 92.57, giving a buy signal.  There may be a show of strength in the next few days as WTI rises above resistance levels.  The Cycles Model suggests the uptrend may resume through the end of November.

Gold may be in the final stage of its decline toward the trendline.  It may be identified as a Head & Shoulders neckline.  A plunge through it may offer more information  to quantify the formation.

The Agriculture Index may be on its final path to a Master Cycle low this week.  The highest probability day for a reversal may be Thursday.

Bitcoin rose above its proposed Head & Shoulders neckline at 82200.00 today.  Should it find support at the neckline, it may contiue higher to complete the current Master Cycle.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last to the week of October 19, with a possible extension to the week of October 26.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to a morning high at 7803.20 thus far.  The final push higher may be about to begin.  The Cycles Model suggests the SPX may peak during the week of October 12.  While the average target may be the Cycle Top currently at 8044.00, the Fractal structure may be limited to 7950.00.  The Cycles Model does not call for a rise in animal spirits this week, so the Fractal rules may dominate.

The NDX futures have risen this morning to 31034.30 and may have begun its final Fractal as well.  The Cycle Top resistance lies at 32315.83.  However the Fractal structure may limit the rally to 31900.00.

Zerohedge reports, “US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI relief, easing geopolitical tensions and fading energy prices has lifted sentiment into the final trading day of the week:”

The premarket VIX declined to a morning low at 15.10, at the Triangle trendline.  Protection is being dumped rather than bought.  However, the current Master Cycle may have run out of time.  On this occasion, it is possible that the potential “tail” may not be pinned to the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 52.65 this morning after making a key reversal yesterday.  In this case, the key reversal may be temporarily bearish for yields.  The possible decline may last to the week of October 19 with the Head & Shoulders neckline as its possible target.

The US Dollar remains in a consolidationfor a few more days.  The corrective fractal suggests a retest of the Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80, then a possible double reversal aiming higher.  At that point the H&S formaton takes over with xonsequences.

The Euro may be resuming its decline that may last into next week.  The next support level may be 110.00, but no assurance that the decline may stop there.  However, the current Master Cycle may be winding up its lower probe before a retest of the neckline.  .

Crude oil may be rising to retest Intermediate resistance at 92.31 this morning.  Should its close above that level, a buy signal may be given. Volatility may rise oveer the weekend, giving crude a possible jolt higher.   Should it not rise above resistance, a deeper decline may be ahead next week.

Gold has bounced from it low, but the Master Cycle may not be complete.  The Cycles Model allows another possible week of decline.  The issue here is that there may be rising volatility next week whicch may spill over into the week of October 19.  The trendline at 3900.00 or the Cycle Bottom at 3820.10 may be tested.

The Agriculture Index is testing the 52-day Moving Average at 417.58 today, in preparation of a relaunch of its uptrend.  The Cycles Model suggests that the uptrend may last into late November.  In addition, trending strength may be coming back next week.

Agrolatam.com reports, “The 2026 U.S. corn harvest is running behind its historical pace in 11 states, according to the USDA Crop Progress report released October 5, covering the week ending October 4. Nationally, farmers had harvested 23% of their corn acreage, four percentage points below the five-year average of 27%. Iowa and Michigan recorded the largest shortfalls, while persistent rainfall and wet field conditions restricted harvesting across parts of the Corn Belt. The delays matter for growers, grain handlers, and agricultural markets as the industry enters a critical period for field operations and grain movement.”

Bitcoin has risen back above its necklineat 82600.00 this morning after a brief test.  Teh Cycles Model suggests the current Master Cycle may stretch another 2 weeks or more as it labors at a possible Head & Shoulders formation.

The Banking Index is consolidating between the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation at 165.86 and the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.17.  A decline through the neckline may activate the H&S formation.  The Cycles Model indicates the decline may continue to the week of October 26, with possible extensions.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7750.90 this morning as oil prices remained high, the Korean Kospi fell back and European banks plunged.  This rally is climbing a wall of worry as it struggles higher.  The potential target for this rally may be the Cycle Top currently at 8038.00, rising at ~8 points per day.  Should investors shrug off their worries and animal spirits take hold, the SPX may exceed 8000.00.

The Premarket VIX bounced off the TReiangle trendline again, rising to 16.02.  This action is unnerving and many speculators in the VIX have been shaken out of the market, both long and short.

The US Dollar remains above both the Cycle Top and  the Head & Shoulders neckline as it consolidates.  While it has the capability of making a new high, the correction may reverse down to find support at the neckline before resuming its uptrend.

The Euro hass declined to 111.72 this morning, testing its low.  While the USD has support, the Euro has none.  The chances are high of going into free-fall next week.  The deeper it goes, the more lquidity moves to the US Dollar, supporting multiple assets.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures declined to 53.02 this morning, while the cash market opened at 53.24.    The fractal structure infers a possible decline to the Head & Shoulders neckline.  The Cycles model suggests a sideways correction until the week of October 26, when volatility picks up.

ZeroHedge observes, “After yesterday’s ugly, it stopping through, auction, bond markets were on edge ahead of today’s $39 billion reopening of benchmark 10 Year paper: an ugly auction could well send yields to new multi-decade highs (if not vice versa).

Well, at 1pm we got the results of today’s 10Y auction (technically 9 Year, 10 Month reopening) and… they were surprisingly strong.”

Crude oil may have made an early Master Cycle low on October 6.  It is challenging its Intermediate resistance at 92.19 this morning and may leave a buy signal should it close above it.  Since the indicated low was early, an alternate view may be entertained by declining to the mid-Cycle support currently at 84.95.  The discrepancy may be cleared up within the next week

Gold bounced, but may not have made its Master Cycle low.  The fractal confirms that another probe lower may complete the Master Cycle in another week.

The Agriculture Index is testing the 53-day Moving Average at 417.11 this morning.  This may set the stage for a very strong rally through the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation at 450.39.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a $180 million investment to launch the Seed Sovereignty Initiative for strengthening domestic agricultural security by protecting plant genetic resources.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:57 am

BKX declined to a low of 167.48 this morning.  It may be testing the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 165.86.  The problem is that Trending Strength may appear this weekend in the form of a panic decline.  The jolt in yields may have damaged the outlook for banks, especially during their earnings reporting season.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7732.10 this mornng in a consolidation to work off an overbought condition.  The fractal structure calls for at least one probe higher, but it may extend beyond that.  The Cycle To resistance resides at 8030.39 this morning, climbing 8-10 points per day.  A high of 8100.00 may be within reach for this Master Cycle.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are sliding from Tuesday’s record close as oil climbs back above $100, global bond yields resume their ascent and the AI bubble debate makes an unwelcome comeback.”

The premarket VIX bounced at the Triangle trendline to a morning high at 16.01.  Despite the oil blockafe and threats of war, the VIX remains relatively calm.  VIX itself has become volatile as it shakes out positions that have no conviction.  The fractal structure allows a further decline to the lower trading channel trendline near 13.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures stretched to 53.56 while the cash market opened this morning at 53.54.  These highs have not been seen since April 2002.  The Master Cycle may be extending.  The primary view is that yields may be in an extended correction that may yet decline to the neckline at 50.00.

Zerohedge observes, “With bond traders still bruised from the catastrophic, “mega-tailing” 5Y auction two weeks ago, some were looking toward this week’s restart of Treasury coupon auctions with trepidation, although after the brutal selloff in recent weeks, there probably was enough concession to avoid another disaster.”

The US Dollar is threatening to extend the Master Cycle today beyond the current high at 102.53.  Trending strength may be appearing today.  If so, it may extend the current Master Cycle to mid-October.  The fractal structure may allow the USD to rise further before a correction takes place.

The Euro has extended its decline this morning.  The Cycles Model sugests the current Master Cycle may last to mid-October with a possible extension to the week of October 19.  Calls for a reversal are still too keen.  Sentiment may give up on the reversal before it can take place.

Crude oil has risen modestly, but may have another test of mid-Cycle support at 84.80 before resuming its uptrend.  The Current Msster Cycle may terminate during the week of October 12.

Gold declined through round number support at 4100.00 this morning.  This indicates that the decline is not over.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to mid-October.  Should that be so, the trtendline near 3900.00 may be challenged.

The Agriculture Index may be testing the 52-day Moving Average at 416.61 today as it consolidates the rally from the reversal beneath it.  Trending strength may be building with a possible panic rally by the weekend.  The soybean harvest is behind schedule and may be plagued by rain.

AgWeb.com reports, “Soybeans were the price leader with November up 22 1/4 and settling at $13.03.

The rally was fueled by talk that China was pricing soybeans off the U.S. Gulf and could resume buying after their Golden Week holiday.”

Bitccoin is testing the neckline at 82600.00 this morning.  Should it hold, the rally may resume to test (or exceed) the Cycle Top at 87971.00.  The current master Cycle allows the uptrend to possibly resume to the week of October 26.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7812.60 thus far this morning, very nearly reaching a new all-time high.  The Cycle Top resistance lies at 8023.32 this morning rising 8-10 points per day.  8100.00 may be in reach in the next week or so.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher for a fourth day, putting the S&P on course for its longest winning streak in two months, and on pace for a record open.”

The Dow jones Industrials have risen to 51638.00 thus far this morning in an abrupt bounce off the mid-Cycle support at 50431.00.  The nearest target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 52397.01, and rising.    The Cycle Top is currently at 54756.36 this morning, and rising.

The premarket VIX slid to 15.28 this morning, testing the Triangle trendline.  The Cycles Model sugests a possible surge of downside strength may be imminent.  This may aid in the development of a fractal tail beneath the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back from its Master Cycle high at 53.49.  A correction that testing The Head & Shoulders neckline may be anticipated.  The Cycles Model suggests weakness may prevail until the week of October 26.

Crude oil declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 88.41 this morning.  This may be the final shake-out prior to a resumption of the uptrend.  A high velocity rally may ensue through the middle of October.

ZeroHedge observes, “The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was in mid-September, and so far, the season has been very quiet as El Niño wind shear breaks apart tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin.

On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave the tropical disturbance a 70% chance of development over the next seven days, up from 50%.”

Gold has bounced from round number support at 4100.00 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible rally that may test the mid-Cycle resistance at 4539.93 by mid-October.

The Agriculture Index has risen above its 52-day Moving Average at 415.62, giving a buy signal.  What may follow is a very long rally as harvest season is underway.  Trending strength may begin later this week.   The Head & Shoulders formation may be engaged before the current Master Cycle ends.

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation mode beneath its Cycle Top resistance at 87835.00.  There may be a final test of the trendline near 82700.00 before a breakout may ensue.  The Head & Shoulders formation is loaded.  It simply needs a propellant to spark the rally.

The US Dollar has pulled back to its Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80 this morning.  Monday’s high may mark the end of the existing Master Cycle, allowing the decline.  However, the neckline appears to be strong and the Cycles Model injects a bit of possible volatility today.  We await the outcome.  Dollar shorts are on high alert as a further rally may be quite painful.

The bounce in the Euro stopped short of the Neckline of its Head && Shoulders, having been repelled by its Cycle Bottom at 112.93.  So, while there was some profit taking by the Euro shorts, sellers may have stepped back in.  The Cycles Model gives the Euro another week before buyers may be back en masse.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating within Friday’s trading range this morning.  While the trend of the Cycle is “higher”, investors appear listless.  The SPX is only 1.2% beneath its peak and above critical support at 7677.71.  The Cycle Top is at 8015.00.  Earnings season begins this week.

The Dow Jones Industrials have slipped beneath the September 16 low which was the turning point for the SPX and NDX (which is making new all-time highs).   The market maladjustment among the major indices has to be resolved.  The Cycles Model suggests the Dow must go higher.  Richard Russell once noted that a major bull market does not end on this note.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower to start the week and global markets struggle for direction, as political upheaval and mounting concern over Europe’s public finances dampened risk sentiment and sent the euro to a 17-month low against the dollar while the US yield curve twists steeper and USD appreciates.”

The premarket VIX rose to 16.38 this morning, back above the 52-day Moving Average at 15.92, due to a singular burst of strength.  The Cycles Model shows no folow-through higher.  The fractal formation suggests a decline beneath the Triangle trendline near 15.25.

The US Dollar rose to 102.53 this morning, above the Head & Shoulders neckline support at 101.80.  The Cycles Model shows the USD rising in the current master Cycle.  Dollar shorts are being squeezed with panic about to erupt during the next two weeks.  The Head & Shoulders target may be in view.

The Euro futures are making new lows this morning while the US Dollar breaks higher.  This is a classic example of how money flows in times of crisis.  While the Euro is falling apart liquidity is escaping to a safer harbor.  The Cycles Model shows an outright panic may be brewing.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is higher this morning, but beneath the September 28 high which may have ended the Master Cycle.  The Cycles Model suggets a possible pullback to Cycle top support at 50.53 or the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00.

Crude Oil is testing the 52-day Moving average at 88.49, remaining above it.  A trading Cycle low may have been put in this weekend, freeing crude to find a new elevation.  Trending strength may return as early as tomorrow and continue influencing price to the middle of October.

ZeroHedge observes, “”The East-West pipeline was attacked again yesterday,” a source working in the kingdom’s energy sector told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Monday. “A pumping station east of Riyadh in Khurais. It wasn’t targeted before. There was big damage and the pipeline stopped again.””

Gold is treading at the lower end of its consolidation.  The Fractal structure may be incomplete.  Should it find support at 4000.00, gold may bounce to the 52-day Moving Average at 4311.00.

The Agriculture Index rose above its 52-day Moving Average at 415.68, confirming a buy signal.  The Ag Index may gain momentum over the next week with a possible burst of trending energy by the weekend.  The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation is in view.

Bitcoin rose to 86969.00 this morning, remaining beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 87621.00.  A confirmed buy signal ressides above the Cycle Top.    Trending strength may reappear above the Cycle Top.  The current Master Cycle may continue as lfar as the week of October 26.

BKX may reamin on a bounce for a few more days.  The first resistance is at