The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are hovering beneath the upper trendline of the proposed Triangle formation near 7522.00.  That may also be the terminus of theformer Master Cycle, allowing a reversal to take place.  As noted earlier, the June 15 high, although higher than yesterday’s, may have been too early, as bother the DJIA and NDX made their highs more than a week later.  The June 25 DJIA high marked the primary high.  The dispersion of the highs suggests that this may not be the all-time high.  The Cycles Model allows a 2-3 week decline that may shake out the weaker hands that expect a continuous rise in stocks.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have reversed all overnight losses which were driven by the latest crash in South Korean stocks, which plunged 8% and closed at LOD, driven by a plunge in memory stocks.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above yesterday’s low.  Although it may go nominally lower, the Master Cycle may be completed nearer the Cycle Top, delaying the termination of the 2.5 year Triangle.  This Triangle is on a Primary time scale (2-3 years) that is not recognized by most analysts, whose timeframe may be on a minor  scale of 2-3 months, such as the SPX Triangle.

The US Dollar is testing the Head & Shoulders neckline just beneath 101.00, giving temporary relief to the dollar shorts.  Should it remain above the neckline, however, the USD may resume its upward trend.    In doing so, it may reach the Head & Shoulders target as early as August, creating a possible panic among the dollar shorts.

The US 10-year Bond Yield made a nominal new high this morning at 45.05 and immediately reversed.  Should it decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.49 it may announce the  end of the current Master Cycle.  Should that be so, it may be evidence of a strong desire for a safe haven, both domestically (SPX) and internationally )USD).

Bitcoin surged higher this morning as it may be completing the correction to Intermediate resistance at 63503.00.  The trend is still down and may resume, with strength, over the weekend.

Crude oil declined to 67.04 this morning, stretching the Master Cycle still further.  Technically, crude may have met its downside limit in this decline.  What follows may be panic rally into mid-August.  The minimum target may be 130.00.  Further analysis may come after the reversal.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

SPX futures reversed in the overnight session, confirming the Triangle formation and completing the (heretofore early) Master Cycle.  This is in agreement with the NDX on June 22 and the DJIA Cycle Top on June 25.  Should the Triangle formation be accurate, the SPX may decline for 2-3 weeks back to or beneath the bottom Triangle trendline near 7300.00.  The dispersion of the Cycle highs inform us that the all-time high is yet to come.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures point to a softer start to the third quarter as investors await a fresh batch of economic data and the first major overseas appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.”

The premarket VIX rose to 17.19 this morning, ending the current Master Cycle.  Should the reversal hold, the VIX may rise to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.82, delaying the completion of the massive triangle formation at or beneath its lower trendline.    Triangle formations are delaying tactics, often frustrating both the bulls and the bears.

The US 10-year Bond Yield leaped above the 52-day Moving Average this morning, challenging Intermediate resistance at 44.91.  The Cycles Model suggests the TNX has another week of rally, putting the Cycle Top in play to complete the current Master Cycle.  Bond volatility is rising to a potential peak next week.

The US Dollar Index continues its bounce this morning, remaining above the Head & Shoulders neckline near 101.00.  While the Master Cycle may be complete as of June 24, there are circumstances that may impel the dollar to go higher in the immediate future, extending the Master Cycle another week or so.

Bitcoin is probing lower this morning, on its way to test the Cycle Bottom at 55345.00.  While the decline appears orderly, it may become more volatile over the next week.  The Cycles Model considers that the current state of affairs may continue to the end of July or early August.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Bitcoin’s latest collapse has broken more than just technical support. The dollar debasement narrative has stopped helping, the relationship with tech has fractured, and even falling volatility is no longer providing relief. Yet as Bitcoin approaches several major long-term support levels, the setup is becoming more interesting than the headlines suggest.”

Crude oil made a nominal new low this morning, potentially extending the Master Cycle another week.  The Model suggests rising volatility this week with a possible panic next week.    Given that the decline is beyond exhaustion, the panis may be on the upside.

Zerohedge comments, “Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.”

Gold futures are consolidating today, but still have further to decline, once the consolidation is finished.  The Cycle Bottom at 3773.73 may be the primary target for this decline.  However, it may go as low as the lower trading channel trendline, approaching 3600.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures probed the Intermediate resistance at 7453.27  after yesterday’s strong bounce off the 52-day Moving Average at 7358.36.  A rise above that level brings the SPX to the Cycle Top resistance at 7532.44.  Should it stop there, a Triangle formation may appear, followed by a long tail declining into mid-July, shaking out weak hands.  It may be a miserable experience for those seeking quick and easy returns in leveraged products.

ZeroHedge reports, “US index futures erased an earlier gain following some belligerent Iran headlines, but are still set to end a quarter that is set to be the S&P 500’s best in six years with markets behaving as though period-end dynamics have now completed.”

The premarket VIX continues its decline, but may stop short of the lower Triangle trendline, as the Master Cycle may be due to reverse this week.  The Traingle formation is already 2.5 years long.  It may become notoriously longer.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is probing higher and may challenge the 52-day Moving average at 44.41 in short order.  The Cycles Model allows a week or longer of bounce which may terminate near the Cycle Top resistance at 45.63.

USD is consolidating above the Cycle Top and Head & Shoulders neckline.  While the Master Cycle fulfilled its requirements for completion last Wednesday, it may still extend higher, despite its overbought condition.  USD shorts are in a precarious condition, due to the breakout, which may lead to more short covering.

Bitcoin is diving again, with the Cycle Bottom at 55538.00 in view.  Once the target is met, a bounce may follow.  However, this is not the end of the decline.  The Cycles Model infers a continued decline to early August.

Crude oil has stabilized above its Master Cycle low at 68.56.  Trending strength may appear imminently, guiding crude oil above the mid-Cycle resistance at 74.75 and confirming the reversal.  Once accomplished, the Cycles Model suggests a potential rally to mid-August.

OilPrice.com reports, “Crude oil prices are in freefall after the United States and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, set to last 60 days. Traders expect the ceasefire to unleash an avalanche of crude, and indeed, tankers are leaving the Persian Gulf in growing numbers. And yet Iran just struck a commercial ship in Hormuz.”

ZeroHedge observes, “Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tumbled since late last week, as ship owners and operators froze up amid the renewed hostilities between Iran and the US over the weekend.”

Gold made a new low this morning, confirming the decline may continue.  The cycles Model infers a continued deterioration, with corrective bounces, to mid-July with a possible target either the Cycle Bottom at 3771.34 or the lower trading channel trendline, approaching 3600.00.  Defenders of gold-as-currency have become silent.

BKX has declined beneath its Cycle Top support/resistance at 182.58.  This action suggests an aggressive sell signal may have been made.  Thus far, the decline may be interpreted as “profit taking” due to the fact that the underlying weaknesses have been camouflaged by a rising market and steady yields in the bond market.

The Ag Index continues its decline toward the Cycle Bottom at 338.79.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to the end of July, when the results of the wheat harvest comes in.  The Ag Index is entering a period of accumulation prices are due to dramatically increase once the bottom is in.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7407.30 this morning after making a higher low on Friday.  Two weeks ago it made a lesser high at 7577.92 in what may be an early Master Cycle high, unless a new high is made in the next week. Thus far, there is no agreement with the DJIA (See below).

The Industrials made a weekend high at 52130.07 thus far, beneath Thursday’s all-time high at 52655.66.  So there is disagreement between the DJIA and the SPX last week, which is causing some confusion.  It also suggests that, while the Industrials made a new all-time high last week it may not be the last.  Equities may make a comeback, led by the NDX, while blue chips lag.  The Cycles Model calls for a 2-3 week correction, not a bear market, prior to a possible recovery to new all-time highs.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher and points to a reversal of last week’s profit-taking, as traders position for the end of the first half.”

The premarket VIX continues to consolidate, with a potential week of decline ahead.  The target may be the trendline near 15.00.  However, it may  extend to a deeper level, as we have seen in gold.  The Triangle formation is not complete,, as it tends to be drawn out.

The US Dollar may be testing its Cycle Top/neckline at 100.92 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests that, the Head & Shoulders formation may follow through to its target by early August.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may  be consolidating, but still has a week or more to complete the current Master Cycle.  A brief retest of the 52-day Moving Average t 44.39 may be in order, but the Model also allows for a retest of the Cycle Top at 45.62, due to the oversold condition.

Bitcoin is consolidating, on its way to test the Cycle Bottom at 55734.00.  That may not be the end of the decline, however, as the Cycles Model projects the current downward shift to continue to early August.  I had earlier suggested that a minimum decline may target 50000.00.  However, a downward revision to 45000.00 may be in order.

Crude oil has risen from its proposed Master Cycle low on Friday.  The ultra-long Triangle tail may be complete, leaving the longs bruised and shaken.  Confirmation lies above the mid-Cycle support/resistance level at 74.69.  The Model projects the rally may last to mid-August.

Gold may be consolidating this morning, with an oversold inclination to bounce.  Should that be the case, its may test Intermediate resistance at 43.78.49 before resuming its decline.  The Cycles Model infers that the decline may terminate by mid-July.  The decline may target either the Cycle Bottom at 3768.08 ot the Ending Diagonal trendline approaching 3600.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Please note:  I may be absent from the blog over the next week for personal reasons.  Comments, if any, may be brief.

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7451.40 this morning, anticipating the market will be closed today (Juneteenth).  Intermediate support at 7436.88 held, allowing SPX to challenge the Cycle Top at 7484.65 after monthly options expiration day.  The Space-X IPO and Kevin Warsh’s influence in the Fed have taken some of the wind out of the market’s sail. Despite waning liquidity, equities appear to be the only game in town at this time.  The Cycles Model suggests next week’s probe may be higher with a possible target near 7750.00.   Should it go higher, a blow-of top may be indicated.  High market strength may be expressed over the next week.   Alternatively, a decline beneath 7400.00 may be a bearish warning that all is not well.

June monthly options expiration may be held on Monday.  While on balance bullish, a large number of call options may be dropping off, leaving the SPX in a more delicate state.

ZeroHedge reports, “Update: the Yo-Yo insanity that is the on again, off again Iran war. Moments after we reported that futures and global risk assets had sold off overnight on a delay to today’s start of peace talks in Switzerland due to Iran’s protest of ongoing violence in Lebanon, moments ago Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have ​agreed to a ‌ceasefire set to begin at 4 ​p.m. local time ​on Friday, citing a senior US official​.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating, remaining neutral going into the weekend.  The Cycles Model indicates calm ahead, suggesting there is no desire to hedge at this time.  The tranquil outlook may allow the VIX to decline beneath the lower Triangle trendline, possibly matching or exceeding the December low over the next two weeks.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures rose to 44.88 this morning.  However, the market is closed today, so I am showing the weekly chart showing the 2.5 year Triangle formation.  The Cycles Model indicates that TNX may decline to the lower Triangle trendline near 40.00 by mid-July.  It may begin its slope downward as early as this weekend.  That infers both stocks and bonds may rise together in the immediate future.

USD futures rose this morning (not affected by the market closure).  It has broken above the neckline of the proposed Head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycles Model indicates the current Master Cycle has not yet finished, and may do so in strength.  The dollar shorts may be covering, with a possible panic ensuing.to ensue.

Bitcoin has becalmed somewhat after yesterday’s rout.  However, there may be little comfort for the longs, as the decline may resume, with force, this weekend.  The minimum target for this formation may be near 50000.00.  However, the larger picture shows a possible bearish Cup-With-Handle formation with a much deeper possible outcome.

Crude oil futures retested yesterday’s low, which held at 73.58.  It has since gone higher, confirming the Master Cycle low.  Despite the long tail and negative appearance, the Triangle formation is a bullish formation.  A possible minimum target may be near 130.00.  Further analysis may produce a higher outcome.

ZeroHedge observes, “Oil prices are on track to close lower for the week, with WTI futures down more than 9% versus last Friday’s close after the US and Iran secured an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold futures fell lower this morning, as it may resume its decline.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible decrease in price targeting the Cycle Bottom at 3732.42 by mid-July.  While gold is a store of value in normal times , oil has a greater immediate need by many countries across the globe.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7500.80 in the overnight session, rising through  the Cycle Top resistance at 7485.00.  Should it open above that level, SPX may continue its rally to new heights.   If calm persists in the next week, there is a possibility of a blow-off top into the end of the month.  A point of caution, however.  While the current Master Cycle, on average, allows more time for the rally, it is now in a variance zone where a reversal may come early.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain near 7475.00.  Long gamma may begin above 7500.00 while short gamma resided beneath 7400.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures rebounded from the post-FOMC selloff, and oil prices fell as Trump signed the Iran MOU two days early to end the war in the Middle East (in the symbolic Palace of Versailles of all place) and some energy shipments began to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating within yesterday’s trading range and beneath the mid-Cycle resistance.  The  Cycles Model allows a possible “tail” beneath the Triangle formation.  The tail anticipates calm in the markets, possibly through the end of the month.

The June 24 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00.  Short gamma dwells between 14.50 and 16.00.  Long gamma begins at 18.00, but tapers off at 32.00.  Not much risk expected here.

The 10-year US Bond Yield continues to consolidate above the 52-day Moving Average at 44.24.  Should it decline beneath support, we may see a three week decline toward the mid-Cycle support at 42.25.  Note the Triangle formation suggesting a decline to the bottom trendline near 40.00.  While we have seen elongated tails on multiple Triangle formations recently, that feature is not a constant part of the design.

ZeroHedge comments, “With all the suspense of a magician revealing a card you watched him palm, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously — gasp — to leave rates exactly where they were, parked at 3.5%–3.75% like a car nobody intends to move.”

USD tapped the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation this morning at 100.81, setting off alarms among the dollar bears.  While this may be called a technical breakout, there is also a strong likelihood of a pullback lasting a week or two prior to an all-out  push above the line.  WE may consider this a warning, even if it doesn’t break through.

Bitcoin is showing new strength in its decline.  Should it continue to decline, a possible panic session may develop early next week.  The Cycles Model infesr a possible decline through the end of July, giving it plenty of time to hit or exceed its possible (initial) target at 50.000.

Crude oil may have made its final push to the 200-day Moving Average at 73.58.  The  reversal may be imminent.  The Cycles Model suggests the ensuing rally may last to mid-August.  A possible minimum target for the rally may be 132.00 as central banks pile into oil.

ZeroHedge observes, “Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.”

ZeroHedge raises the alarm, “The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.”

Gold futures may be resuming its decline toward the Cycle Bottom at 3732.93.  While retail investors  are starting to show, expecting gold to maintain its low near 4000.00, central banks must sell their gold to obtain oil, which is in dire scarcity.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last to mid-July.  Meanwhile, the World Gold Council released a study showing 45% of its respondents “expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.”    Impeccable timing.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated beneath yesterday’s breakout high above the Cycle Top resistance at  7477.48.  Critical support lies there while resistance awaits at 7648.00.  There could be fireworks as a breakout to a new ATH may be possible as Kevin Warsh makes his first public appearance as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  The Cycles Model shows possible increasing strength through the end of the month.  Prior calculations of a possible ATH target gave an estimated range of 7800.00 to 8100.00.  The high end is now revised to 8145.00 as retail investors jump back into stocks.  There is no assurance of any of these targets.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain near 7530.00.  Long gamma gains ascendancy above 7550.00 while short gamma rules beneath 7475.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are attempting to bounce back from yesterday’s losses on Wall Street led by Tech.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above yesterday’s low.  A minor bounce toward the 52-day Moving Average at 18.32 may be contemplated.  However, the final downside fractal may not be complete until it reaches 15.00.  This may give the appearance of calm before the volatility spike.

Today is options expiration in the VIX.  Today’s Max Pain lies near 19.00.   The June 24 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00.  Short gamma rules from 14.50 to 16.00 while long gamma may begin above 20.00 and extends to 32.00, without a lot of conviction.

The 10-year US Bond Yield bounced from the 52-day Moving Average at 44.20 yesterday, waiting for the FOMC statement.     Today may be a crossroad for the TNX, as this is the last day that the Master Cycle, currently at May 29, may extend.  That outcome contemplates a bounce that may break above the 2,5-year Triangle.  The alternate view suggests a powerful decline to the lower Triangle trendline near 40.00, should peace break out in the Middle East.  Resolution may come by the weekend.

Yesterday ZeroHedge observed, “In a quiet day for stocks, which are now trading near session lows, which in turn is prompting a bid for safety, the Treasury complex was already trading at the best levels of the day ahead of today’s Treasury auction. Then just after 1pm, the stellar results from today’s 20Y auction (technically a 19 Year 11-month reopening of cusip UV8), confirmed the solid demand for US paper.”

USD consolidates as it awaits the first FOMC release unter Warsh’s new administration.  The Cycles Model contemplates a possible decline to the Cycle Bottom at 97.02, should the FOMC eases or remains neutral.

Bitcoin retreated from its Master Cycle high on Monday at 67256.00.  The Cycles Model points out that trending strength may be on the rise while the downtrend develops.  Key support lies at 48300.00 to 49200.00.

Crude oil may have made its Master Cycle low this morning at 74.59, just above the mid-Cycle support at 74.37.  It has made a very long tail to its Triangle formation and may take some time to recover.  However, the uptrend may be well established by the end of June when trending strength reappears.  The reversal from the mid-Cycle support may be considered an aggressive buy signal.  Strategists are contemplating a new supply-demand framework, but entire countries must refill their empty tanks.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Oil prices have tumbled in recent days as optimism grew there would be a lasting Middle East peace agreement, which would mean supplies would be back on track – but investors are taking a breather today with prices marginally higher this morning, rising off three month lows (and the 200DMA) after Trump threatened to ‘start bombing again’ if he doesn’t like the deal (or how Iran is behaving). Solid US macro data also helped lift oil prices (demand).”

ZeroHedge exclaims, “Trump Admits

President Trump’s comment at the tail end of the G7 press conference about rapidly depleting crude reserves may have been the clearest admission yet of what is really driving the urgent push for an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold has stalled in a zig-zag reversal, suggesting more downside to come, as it remains well beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at 4503.15.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible month of decline with the Cycle Bottom at 3724.51 as the intended target.   Central banks, who bid up the price of gold in January, may now be selling as the demand for oil may far exceed the availability.  The artificially lower price only makes oil more attractive.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Citi says gold’s break below its 200-day moving average is a major warning sign, with prices potentially falling toward $4,000 before the next sustainable rally begins, even as the bank maintains a longer-term bullish outlook.”

ZeroHedge brings up what may be a red herring, “Today, the World Gold Council released their 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey. Amongst the insights, here is the punchline: a record 45% of respondents expect their own gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months.”

The Agriculture Index may be near its retracement peak as it challenges mid-Cycle resistance at 360.37.  Crossing back beneath it may trigger a new sell signal.  Resolution of the cmpleted fractal may occur by the end of the month. .

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated in a 22-point range around yesterday’s close.  Domestic sentiment is bearish across the board, so who is doing the buying?  A look at the drawdowns in various currencies show some possibilities.  While the June drawdown in USD was -5.15%, the drawdown in Swiss Francs was only -4.3%.  The Swiss are bankers for many Middle Eastern countries.  The drawdown in Japanese Yen was -4.8%.  That tells us that investors tn those currencies had less to lose and possibly more to gain investing in the US.  The fact that the majority of yesterday’s gain was made overnight lends credence to that observation, as their markets precede ours.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7560.00.  Long gamma is close by at 7570.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7535.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are flat, pausing after a three-day rally with investors shifting their focus to this week’s FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first, which begins today.”

The premarket VIX is in consolidation after yesterday’s decline.  The Cycles Model infers a further decline beneath the lower Triangle boundary.  It may catch many investors wrong-sided when the reversal occurs.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma resided from 15.00 to 19.00.  Long gamma may begin above 20.00 and is well populated to 140.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield c may be pausing above the 52-day moving Average at 44.20.  Thus far, TNX has made a 2.5-year Triangle consolidation that remains unfinished.  The final probe lower may target the lower Triangle trendline near 40.00 in early July.

Bitcoin reversed from its corrective bounce at 66907.94 yesterday.  Confirmation of the decline may arrive in just a few days.  If so, the downtrend may last to early August.   Initial analysis suggests a decline to 50000.00 may  be forthcoming.

Crude oil may be in its final stage of decline.  The fractal appears complete, but may still extend to the mid-Cycle support at 74.30.  Triangle tails are often brutal, since they go further and longer than expected.  This is a shakeout par excellence.  Prepare for an imminent reversal.

OilPrice.com reports, ”

• The Americas are replacing the Middle East as the key source of global oil supply, with crude exports from the Western Hemisphere hitting a record 14.5 million bpd while Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed.
• Trump’s broader energy strategy aims to weaken OPEC’s influence and cement U.S. dominance over global energy markets.
• Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil are emerging as the biggest growth engines, with Venezuela rebuilding output, Argentina rapidly expanding Vaca Muerta shale production, and Brazil reaching record production levels.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7532.90 thus far this morning as Trump’s proposed peace deal lends more support to the bullish outlook.  The Cycles Model agrees, indicating strength in the uptrend until the end of June.  There is a high likelihood of the SPX exceeding 8000.00 in that period.   Liquidity is dismal while hedge funds cover their shorts and retail investors come rushing back.  Demand for leverage is climbing as investors try to take back their losses.

Today’s otions chain shows Max Pain at 7435.00.  Long gamma resides above 7500.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7400.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war.”

NDX futures have vaulted to 30300.00 this morning after two weeks of volatile correction.  It may see 33000.00 by the end of the month.  However, volatility may also be increasing over the next two weeks.

The premarket VIX  plunged to 16.60 this morning on the news of a possible peace agreement.  The Cycles Model anticipates a suppression of the VIX as short covering overtakes the market.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma rules beneath 19.00 while long gamma strengthens above 22.00.

The 10-year US bond yield has fallen beneath Intermediate support at 44.79.  The 51-day Moving Average lies at 44.17.  A break beneath these levels may bring on a further decline through early July.  A possible target for the proposed declie may be the mid-Cycle support at 42.20.

The USD is extending its decline, with a possible support at the 52-day Moving Average at 98.92.  The Cycles Model allows a possible 2-week correction before resuming the uptrend.

Bitcoin may be wrapping up its Master cycle this morning as  the correction nears completion.  Should this be the case, a reversal may take bitcoin lower through the end of July.

Crude oil may be making its final plunge beneath the Triangle formation as the Master Cycle may be closing down, causing oil longs to liquidate.  This may cause a further extension to the decline, making it difficult to know when the bleeding has stopped.  The mid-Cycle support at 74.21 may still be in play.

ZeroHedge observes, “Summary:

• GasBuddy’s U.S. Gas National Avg. Falls Below $4 per gallon 
• AAA’s U.S. Gas National Avg. still slightly Above $4 per gallon (expected to fall) 
• US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Brent and WTI Tumbling”

Gold has made a terrific bounce from Thursday’s low.  Unfortunately, the decline may not be over.  The Model allows for a retest of Thursday’s low in a  steep extended decline, possibly to the Cycle Bottom at 3702.07.  It doesn’t look good for the longs.

Friday’s breakout in the BKX extends the current Master Cycle to the end of June.  The fractal structure is an ending diagonal, signaling an end to the uptrend  soon.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX rose above Intermediate resistance at  7394.06, enabling a possible buy signal.  It remains beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 7454.71, where confirmation of the buy signal exists.  The Cycles Model suggests that volatility may rise early next week.  The current Master Cycle may last to the end of June.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7375.00.  Long gamma lies above 7400.00 while short gamma dwells beneath 7650.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures and global markets are higher, extending their rally while oil hit the lowest level in months following fresh reports that the US and Iran are nearing a provisional agreement to end their war, even if top leadership has yet to sign off.”

VIX declined to 48.51 thus far this morning.  While the Triangle formation appears complete, a tail beneath the trendline is a common occurrence.  We may see VIX retreat back beneath the trendline by the end of the month.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma rules beneath 19.00 while long gamma exists above 20.00, with large pockets of institutional holdings to 140.00.  The longs may be a month early.

The US 10-year Bond Yield declined to Intermediate support at 44.75 this morning.  It may be at a decision point where yields may go higher, should support hold.  Should support hold at the end of day, it may advance to the neckline in due course.  Thus far, TNX has maintained it rising trend.

USD may be taking a break from its rally.  The Cycles Model allows a possible two weeks of consolidation/correction before resuming its uptrend.

Bitcoin may be in the final stage of its consolidation.  A reversal from this point may bring a possible panic decline until its target, 50000.00 or lower, is reached.

Crude oil may have met its Master Cycle low, producing the “tail” on the Triangle.  A rally above the lower trendline near 87.00 may produce a buy signal.  The Cycles Model suggests a rally that may last to mid-August.  Don’t expect lower gasoline prices to last…

TheEpochTimes observes, “In California, Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington, gasoline prices exceed $5 per gallon.

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping from $4.56 per gallon on May 21 to $4.12 per gallon on Thursday.”

Gold may have made its Master Cycle low yesterday.  While the timing of the low matches the profile, there may be a final probe lower early next week.  Which ever occurs, the next trend may be considerably higher.