The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

10:42 am

SPX may attempt a higher retacement…to Intermediate resistance at 6643.16.

10:19 am

The Ag index may have bounced from Intermediate support at 360.07 yesterday.  If so, it may be completing its consolidation and preparing for a breakout above its Head & Shoulders neckline at 377.00.  The Cycles Model supports this view as it proposes a burst of trending energy this weekend.  The war in the Middle East is having a knock-on effect on our farmers that has been unnoticed until recently.

TheEpochTimes comments, “Sometimes it is just a mood. Sometimes it’s the store or the product. Regardless, I can hardly go to the grocery store these days without a sense of shock at how much I’m spending even while buying as little as possible.

Money-saving tactics—choosing cheaper venues, substituting products, just eating less—don’t seem to work anymore.”

8:15 am

SPX futures declined to a morning low at 6469.40 thus far.  The next phase of the decline may have begun, as all the stock indices have stopped cold at key resistance.  As mentioned before, the potential target may be the Cycle Bottom at 6264.31 or the 1987 trendline near 6200.00.  That is based on my primary fractal design.  The alternate design may offer a much lower target, possibly the April 2025 low.  The reason for this observation is that the new Master Cycle (decline) may extend to the end of April.

401(k) plans are under stress.  ZeroHedge remarks, “Another light on America’s economic dashboard is blinking red, as money-pinched workers are cutting their 401k contribution rates. The news follows our earlier report on hardship withdrawals from the cornerstone retirement savings accounts hitting a record high. Critically, these numbers don’t reflect what workers are doing right now — amid war-driven gas price-hikes and worries about the economy.”

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain a t6580.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6590.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 6540.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global risk assets, including US equity futures and global markets, as well as Treasuries and precious metals, tumbled as oil soared with Brent hitting $110 this morning after Trump’s late Wednesday speech refused to pivot and dashed hopes that the Hormuz Strait would reopen soon and the war in the Middle East is nearing a swift resolution.”

The premarket VIX rose to 27.859 this morning, above the Cycle To support/resistance at 25.37.  The VIX remains on a long-term buy signal despite the wide swings.  The current Master Cycle runs until mid-April.

The April 8 VIX options chain shows short gamma running between 20.00 and 23.00.  Long gamma begins at 24.00 and shows  institutional participation starting at 25.00 and running every 5 points to 55.00.

TNX continued its bounce from support at 43.00.  Resistance lies at the Cycle Top at 44.16 which may bring TNX back down over the next several days, as the Cycles Model allows some consolidation during that time.  However, the trend is higher and may be strengthened by a breakout above the neckline of the proposed Head & Shoulders formation.

USD is bouncing back toward the Cycle Top resistance at 100.38.  Should it break through the Cycle Top and the neckline at 100.60, it may complete its fractal near 102.00 by mid-April.  That action may offer a stronger Head & Shoulders platform from which the USD may rally.

Bitcoin resumed its decline after testing the 52-day Moving Average at 68619.00 yesterday.  Support may be found near 62000.00 which may offer another bounce over the weekend.  However, the secular trend is down, as any bounce may be met with more selling.

Crude oil ramped to 113.93 in the overnight market, adding pressure to major economies that are dependent on oil.  The irony is that crude may decline from here, causing more confusion about the trend.

ZeroHedge summarizes,

• Oil prices surge after no mention of ceasefire while vowing to keep hitting Iran ‘extremely hard’ in Wed. night Trump speech. Surge in tit-for-tat overnight strikes.
• US intelligence assessments say Iran is not ready to negotiate given it believes it has the strategic upper-hand, and doesn’t believe Trump is ‘serious’ about talks: NYT

Gold rose to 4825.00 overnight, then may have run out of energy as it approached the 52-day Moving Average at 4927.32.  It then declined to 4581.12 this morning.  Central banks may be forced to sell gold to buy oil.  Should that be so, gold may quickly decline beneath 4000.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

1:22 pm

The NDX reached the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation and the 52-day Moving Average, its retracement of the decline that started two weeks ago.  It had a rare miss of its Head & Shoulders formation.  Prepare for a reversal, as short covering may be finished.  There doesn’t appear to be any inclination to go long here.

11:00 am

BKX has risen above Intermediate resistance at 156.73 and may approach the 52-day Moving Average at 161.17 in the next day or so.  BKX is due for a day of strength tomorrow as well as a major reversal following on its heels.

8:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6589.80 this  morning, approaching the next resistance near 6600.00.  Should that hold, the retracement may be over this morning.  While futures have a different set of supports and resistances, the cash target of 6550.00 may still be appropriate, with an outside deviance to 6588.00.  While yesterday’s bounce may be measured as “Best day since…“,  it is an overdue reaction to the end of a Master Cycle.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6500.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6525.00 while short gamma may rule beneath 6575.00.  Short gamma has been severely decimated, which is the objective of a retracement as strong as yesterday’s.  However, there is no indication of increased longs.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures and bonds jump and oil fell, sending Brent briefly below $100 a barrel, as the de-escalation/technical/macro led relief rally continues on hopes of the Middle East conflict reaching an end soon  after Donald Trump said he expects the war in Iran to end in two to three weeks, and indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that timeframe.”

The premarket VIX made an overnight low of 24.07 and may have begun a bounce.  Should the VIX go lower, the 52-day Moving Average at 21.34 may act as a backstop.  Normally the VIX offers early notice of changes in trend in the SPX.  However the month-long sideways moves in the SPX put a drag on the VIX.  Today’s possible reversal may bring the VIX back into sync with the moves in the SPX.  The Cycles model suggests a very strong rally over the next three weeks.

The April 8 VIX options chain shows Max Pain at 25.00.  Short gamma still resided between 20.00 and 22.00.  Long gamma may begin above 30.00and remains strong to 55.00.  Note the target of the Head & Shoulders formation.

TNX is consolidating above 43.00 this morning.  There may be a bounce to the Cycle Top at 44.16 in the next day or two.  However, a second test of the retracement low may take place near the trendline at 42.00 by next week.

Reuters reports, ” The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan jumped last week to the highest since August, as rising oil prices from the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran fueled inflation fears and drove up yields on the Treasury bonds that lenders widely use as benchmarks for setting mortgage rates.”

USD made a morning low at 99.32 where a bounce may have begun.    USD may test the Cycle Top at 100.35 this week.  Should it fail, USD may again test support, most likely the 52-day Moving Average at 98.32.

Bitcoin tested intermediate resistance at 69275.00 this morning and is pulling back.  Should it retest resistance,  bitcoin may rise to 72000.00.  However, the longer view shows bitcoin in a possible race to new lows.

Crude oil slipped back beneath 100.00 after making a retracement high at 106.86 yesterday.  Crude is in line for a retracement low, possibly near the 52-day Moving Average at 75.08 by mid-April.  Wholesale prices of gasoline are also falling, bringing some relief to the consumer.

Gold continued to rise to 4791.00 this morning.  The attraction to the 52-day Moving Average at 4936.39 is growing as gold comes into its reversal zone.  The next week may be critical for the price of gold.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

1:43 pm

SPX had an explosion of short covering today with no catalyst, other than the shorts were due to be covered.  Intermediate Wave (3) was a monster 529 point decline in just 20 days.  It was also the end of an overdue Master Cycle.  The rebound may not last.  An estimated target may be in the range of 6550.00, where short covering may run out of steam.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6425.60 this morning, beneath short-term resistance at 6438.00.  The Model remains bearish.  Hedge funds and commercials are bearish.  The expected bounce did not materialize.  The Cycle Bottom at 6251.18 may now be an attractor along with the 1987 trendline near 6200.00.  While the market may be near exhaustion, there is no clear catalyst to instigate a short squeeze.   Instead, further capitulation may be at hand.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6405.00.  Long gamma may start above 6425.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6400.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher on a WSJ report that Trump is considering exiting the middle east conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened; but the market is deciding whether this is a genuine intent to leave or another feint given the previous US attacks during negotiations and that Trump has yet to adjust his Apr 6 deadline.”

The premarket VIX declined to 28.28, remaining above the Cycle Top at 25.15.  The Cycles Model offers a burst of trending strength today which may elevate the VIX above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  If so, the VIX may pause before going higher.  Should that be the case, the VIX may assume leadership role in a further bear market.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 24.00 and long gamma above 25.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is hesitating at 43.00.  A bounce is possible, but the Cycle Top at 44.18 is offering resistance.  The Cycles Model suggests that TNX may be in a corrective mode for another week or so, as the market absorbs the reality of higher yields.

The USD rally is being blocked by the neckline of the Head & shoulders formation at 100.60.  It may consolidate for another week as TNX is also in short0term retreat.  Intermediate support at 98.79 may offer a floor from which a stronger reversal may be instigated.

Bitcoin made a second attempt at overcoming the 52-day moving Average at 68713.00, but retreated.  The next move may be to test the low at 65000.00.  Should it go lower, a panic decline may emerge by the weekend.

Crude oil climbed even higher, to 106.82 overnight, then eased down to 100.88 this morning.  The market remains uneasy above $100.00 oil.  Unfortunately a break beneath 100.00 may not last, as tensions may heat up in the second half of April.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The overnight Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted (and appeared to confirm this narrative in a social media post this morning) comes just as the national average gasoline price hit the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, underscoring the delicate balancing act the administration is facing in managing battlefield objectives and domestic fuel costs.”

Gold rose to 4649.28 in the overnight session, but pulled back to 4600.00 this morning.  Oil priced above 100.00 is causing liquidity issues for many countries.  The major sellers of gold are central banks needing to purchase oil at elevated prices.  There may be another downdraft in gold that may go beneath 4000.00 before the price of gold recovers.

Silver rose to 73.73 this morning and may be heading lower.  The cycles Model infers the correction may not have finished yet, which may nip the budding bounce.  The downside target may be in the range of 45.00 to 55.00.  That may be a good range to start accumulating silver again.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined over the weekend to 6319.10, then bounced to 6434.40 this morning.  Overhead resistance begins at 6475.00 as shorts are covered and the dealers try to regain control.  However, the next few days are both high strength and high volatility days.  The options market is becoming contentious.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6470.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6475.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6450.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher despite continued Iran war escalation which pushed Brent higher by around 2%…”

The premarket VIX is consolidating in the upper range of Friday’s rally.  Trending strength is due for a comeback with the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation in view.

The April 1 options chain shows short gamma moving up to 20.00-27.00.  Long gamma begins at 28.00 and runs heavy to 40.00-50.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has pulled back from the neckline of the new Head & Shoulders formation, completing a Master Cycle.  The correction may take up to 2 weeks, with the upper trendline of the multi-year Triangle formation as a probable target.

The USD is testing its Cycle Top at 100.32 this morning as it approaches the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation.  Today happens to be a day of strength, which may power the USD through the neckline.   The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last another three weeks, causing the dollar shorts significant pain as the dollar breaks above the neckline.

Bitcoin found support at 65000.00 after its rout on Friday and may be testing  its 52-day Moving Average at 68786.00 today.  The retracement may take less than a week, as bitcoin may be due for a further decline by the weekend.  The decline may resume to the end of April before support may be found.

Crude oil rose to a weekend high at 103.37 before pulling away.  This week may be due for either a sideways consolidation or a decline toward the 52-day Moving Average at 73.55.  Volatility may pick up during the week of April 6.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

11:15 am

The minimum target for the SPX Head & Shoulders formation has been met, but there may be more downside to go.  A bounce is not out of the question, but this weekend is fraught with peril in the Middle East and private credit.

3:45 pm

We may see a bounce near 6350.00, but the decline may not be over today.

7:40 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated near 6500.00 in the overnight market, then began to decline to 6444.00, short of the Head & Shoulders minimum target.  Beneath it lies the Cycle Bottom at 6246.17.  The gradual erosion is starting to accelerate.   It appears likely that the decline may terminate close to the 1987 trendline, near 6200.00.  From that point, we may see a consolidation lasting several weeks, as shorts are being covered.  The bear market is not over, but may have a short rest.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6550.00.   Long gamma begins above 6575.00 while short gamma becomes strong beneath 6525.00.  there are substantial put walls at 6400.00 and 6300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are sharply lower, erasing modest overnight gains and trading near session lows as Brent crude futures are back above $110 a barrel after erasing an earlier fall and knocking broader risk sentiment off course in the process.”

The premarket VIX rose to 29.84 this morning as patience wears thin on the war in the Middle East drags on.    Losses are starting to alarm investors looking for a way to alleviate the pain.  However, Wall Street advisors are cautioning against hedging, as the envision a bottom nearby.

The April 1 options chain shoes Max Pain near 25.00.  Short gamma is building beneath 24.00 while long gamma becomes very strong above 28.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield gapped up to 44.66 this morning, above the “Cycle Top  resistance at 44.20.  45.00 is in sight today, but a pullback may be in order.  With that there is a potential of adjusting the neckline of the head & Shoulders higher.  We may allow the subsequent correction to allow guidance, as there may be 1-2 weeks of back-filling.

USD is moving cautiously higher, as it prepares a potential breakout over the weekend.  It may reach 101.50-102.00 by early next week before a consolidation lasting about two weeks.

Bitcoin fell substantially this morning and may end lower by the end of the day.  Today the Cycles model shows a double dose of (down)trending strength.  The February low may afford some support for a bounce.  Soaring oil costs must be met to keep economies afloat, causing liquidation of bitcoin.

Silver declined to 67.50 this morning, in a possible resumption of the decline.  There may be 1-2 more weeks in the decline with 45.00-50.00 as a possible support.

Gold is consolidating in place this morning, with up to 2 weeks of decline left.  A possible target may be 3800.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen”

9:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 6600.00 before bouncing at round number support as optimism about progress in the Middle East fades.  It has been 100 days since the tech peak, 57 days since the broader SPX peaked.  The turmoil under the surface has been awful, yet the SPX has only declined (at yesterday’s close)  less than 6%.  Volatility has been suppressed, keeping the fear factor relatively low.  Single stock liquidity has all but disappeared, inducing hedge funds to use broader-based ETFs to make their moves.  Investors may be having doubts about being long into the weekend.    Are things about to change?

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6610.00.  Long gamma dominates above 6625.00 while short gamma gains a clear advantage beneath 6580.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “It’s Day 27 of the war: stocks and bonds fell globally as ceasefire optimism fades given mixed messages on progress toward ending the war in Iran and growing uncertainty over Iran’s willingness to engage in talks about a ceasefire in the Middle East sent oil prices higher.”

The premarket VIX  rose to 27.84 this morning as VIX resumes its rally with the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation in view.  The Cycles Model shows the VIX rising in strength over the next two weeks.

The April 1 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma has a wall of puts at 20.00 while the call walls are at 25.00, 28.00 and 40.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield bounced from the neckline to 43.94 this morning as it consolidates the gains leading to last week’s breakout.  It is likely to test the neckline today before resuming its rally.  The Cycles Model suggests a burst of volatility tomorrow that either drives the TBX beneath the neckline or above the Cycle Top.  The sword of Damocles hangs above this sector.

ZeroHedge reports, “Another day, another very ugly auction.

After yesterday’s appallingly bad 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5Y paper in what was another terrible auction.

Just after 1pm, the auction stopped at a high yield of 3.966%, up from 3.608% in February and the highest since May 2025. It also tailed the When Issued 3.966% by 1.4bps, the biggest tail since Oct 2024.”

2:00 pm

ZeroHedge reports, “After two “terrible” coupon auctions earlier this week, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s final auction when it sold $44 billion in 7 Year paper. It may not have been quite as terrible as the previous two, but it wasn’t much stronger either.”

The US Dollar may be resuming its upward trend this morning as trending strength may take over this weekend and early next week.  The Cycles Model allows another three weeks of rally before a pullback.  Dollar shorts may be taken behind the woodshed.

Bitcoin is testing the 52-day Moving Average at 69097.00 this morning.  A  breakdown from there may catch the hopeful bulls off guard.  The Cycles Model calls for a potential panic decline as Bitcoin slips away from support.  In addition, the Cycles Model suggests the month of April may not be kind to Bitcoin.

Crude oil rose to 94.83 this morning as its consolidates beneath the retracement high.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to mid-April, but it could be short-circuited in another week.  The 52-day Moving Average at 72.07 may offer a support for the decline.

Silver rose to 72.38 this morning before easing back down to 67.10.    There may be a week or more of decline until it hits bottom.  A likely spot may be near 45.00.

Gold is consolidating with a likely turn to a further decline.  Should the decline continue, it may reach 3600.00-3800.00.

ZeroHedge explains, “There has been much speculation about the mystery seller(s) that sent gold sliding into a bear market from its January high: was it a sovereign seeking to plug holes in their budget from the recent surge in oil, a “market maker” trying to spark stop loss liquidations, or just retail investors taking profit after one of the best years in history for the precious metal?”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:15 am

The Agricultural Index is winding up for a massive breakout this weekend as inputs (fuel, fertilizer) costs soar.  Should the Age Index rise above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, the H&S target may be in reach in the next 4 weeks.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions.”

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures  rose to 6633.90 this morning, partially completing its retracement of last weeks decline.  While yesterday stocks experienced a record degrossing with shorts outnumbering longs 2.5 to 1, the decline may not be over.  Sentiment is the lowest since last April, but these measures have a recency bias, assuming that “normalcy” may quickly return.  The experienced investors are still on the sidelines.  The Cycles model infers a continued decline for possibly another week before a sizable bounce.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6590.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6600.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6575.00.  The surge in this morning’s futures may have been an attempt by the dealers to achieve Max Pain (smallest options payout).

ZeroHedge remarks, “US futures are sharply higher and oil tumbles as the US reportedly offered a15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close triggering a global rally…”

The premarket VIX eased down to 24.85 as dealers attempt to move the SPX to Max Pain.  However, it remains above the Cycle Top support at 24.13, giving a green light to moving much higher.  Trending strength is coming back, according to the Cycles Model.  a breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may be imminent.

The April 1 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma shows a put wall at 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 22.00 and has a growing presence to 60.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back to 43.07, just above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation before bouncing, while the cash market shows a low at 43.30.  The test of the neckline may continue for several days, with a possible lower bottom of this correction.  The Cycles Model shows this rally to be strikingly resilient and long-lasting, possibly to early June, with the target of the head & Shoulders formation in mind.

2:45 pm

ZeroHedge reports, “Another day, another very ugly auction.

After yesterday’s appallingly bad 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5Y paper in what was another terrible auction.

Just after 1pm, the auction stopped at a high yield of 3.966%, up from 3.608% in February and the highest since May 2025. It also tailed the When Issued 3.966% by 1.4bps, the biggest tail since Oct 2024.”

The USD is consolidating above its correction low at 98.88.  The Cycles Model shows growing strength with a possible breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation by early next week.

Bitcoin may have put on the final touches to its retracement today at 72021.00.  The 50% retracement level is at 71700.00, so the retracement is legitimate.  Values may be different in the futures.  The decline may resume, with acceleration by Friday.

Gold continued to rise to 4633.17 in a vicious squeeze before easing back down, erasing Monday’s bloodbath.  However, the decline may resume shortly.  The panic episode and bounce-back has been spent.  However, gold may decline to a new low in the next few weeks.

Crude oil consolidates within yesterday’s range, bt may resume its decline shortly.  Current estimates put the possible low near Intermediate support at 76.74.  However, there may be a strong attraction to the 52-day Moving Average at 71.36 for the cycle low over the next three weeks.

Silver may have completed its bounce at 74.80 this morning.  From here, the decline may resume, with strong attraction to 45.00-50.00.  However, under certain circumstances it may go lower.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:34 am

BKX may be having a strong up day today.  If so, a bounce may extend to Intermediate resistance and the trendline at 160.46.  The Middle East news seems to be dominant, so investors are looking for what may be trending positively, or at least not declining.  Should BKX rise above the mid-Cycle resistance at 154.40, then the trendline may come into view as the next resistance.  Apollo and Ares are two private credit funds that have gated investor liquidations.  There will be more liquidations as rising interest rates are eroding returns on private credit.  Somehow, this doesn’t reflect on bank loan quality, yet.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX closed right at short-term support/resistance at 6581.00 yesterday.  The overnight session futures rose to 6605.00, then dropped to 6531.90 this morning.  It remains hovering beneath that resistance this morning.  This activity supports a resumption of the decline, or possibly a sideways consolidation.  Commentators insist that SPX remains rangebound.  However, the bottom of the 4-month “range” is the neckline at 6710.00.   Poor analysis is causing confusion as there seems to be no consensus in terms.   They may wish to dust off the venerable “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” for reference.  In the meantime, the Cycles Mode may offer another week of serious decline before a significant bounce.  Calling the bottom this week may be an exercise in futility.

Today’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 6600.00, a warning sign that the bears may still be in control of the options market.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower but well off session lows, as overnight headlines induced another bout of aggressive choppiness: those headlines include strikes on Iranian gas facilities, Saudi and UAE considering entering the war, Iranian lawmaker ruling out US negotiations, and then reports of Iran / Egypt discussions on the region pointing toward mediation.”

The premarket VIX remains above the 52-Day Moving Average at 23.93 this morning after completing its correction.  It is also above its Cycle Top at 23.93, offering a buy signal for those who trade the VIX.  Should the VIX rise above the neckline at 25.30, it may follow through to its intended target by the end of the current Master Cycle.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is pushing higher after testing the Cycle Top resistance at 44.12.  The downtrend line is broken.  A breakout above the Cycle Top may rise to 44.50-45.00 in the next week before a pullback.  TNX is on a long Master Cycle that may challenge the October 2023 high at 49.97 by June.

1:30 pm

ZeroHedge reports, “With both foreign and domestic investors dumping gold (and anything else not nailed down) to fund oil, at its brand sparkling new price of $170 (in Asia), we were wondering how long before the lack of disposable cash hits US debt. We got the answer today at just after 1pm when we got the results of today’s $69 billion 2Year bond auction. In a nutshell, it was terrible.”

The USD bounced near its 200-day Moving Average at 98.45 and may continue higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible resumption of the rally until mid-April.

Bitcoin may have completed a near 50% retracement of last week’s decline yesterday and may be poised for a more serious decline.  The Cycles Model reveals a possible panic developing toward the end of the week.  A decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 69075 may confirm that outlook.

Crude oil is consolidating in the mid-range of yesterday’s 17% move in one day.  The consolidation may continue for the next week, perhaps a triangle formation, before declining further.  Activity on this decline may pick up in early April (boots on the ground?), as the decline may test the Intermediate support at 76.02, then the 52-day Moving Average at 70.76, or possibly lower.  However, pressure is building for a blowout to follow.

Gold’s panic decline may be over, with a bounce forming.  It bounced to 4482.74 in the overnight session and may consolidate for the next week after Monday’s record decline.  The outlook for April is murky, but negative.  Supports may be found at 4000.00, 3800.00 and 3600.00.  Possibly lower.  Once the correction is complete, gold may resume its rally for another two years.

Silver remains somewhat range-bound after Thursday’s panic.  There may be another 2 weeks of decline left in the current Master Cycle with the mid-Cycle offering support for a possible bounce at 58.50.  Beyond that, support for a bottom may be found near 45.00 by mid-April.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

3:20 pm

The Agricultural Index stands poised for a breakout, both above the Cycle Top at 369.88, but also the neckline at the Head & Shoulders formation at 376.00.  Should that happen, the H&S target may be reached in the next month.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former advisor at the Bank of Russia, warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a “slower, more consequential story”: fertilizers.”

2:49 pm

SPX may have completed its bounce, as the futures rose to 6698.00 this morning and the fractal appears complete.  Today’s rip higher caught many by surprise, yet those reading Friday’s report were warned in advance. The next phase may take another week or more to complete.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures made a massive round trip over the weekend from a low of 6433.10 to a morning high at 6698.00.  The decline is complex, but the bounce was expected.  Since the futures trading is thin, this bounce was likely the work of the dealers, trying to claw back out of short gamma.  An attempt to make the neckline at 6710.00 may be in order.  Once reset, the decline may resume in just a few hours.  SPX may open beneath 6600.00.  The decline isn’t over yet.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6575.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6700.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6550.00.

The premarket VIX rose to 31.04 on Sunday, then retreated to 20.28 this morning.  The correction may be over.  VIX appears to be dominated by the news in the Middle East.  However, there are domestic issued that , while not getting top headlines, may keep the markets chaotic.  The VIX is prone to wider price actions as the markets become more fragile.

Wednesday’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 23.00 while long gamma dominated above 24.00 and may extend to 50.00.

The US 10 year bond yield rose to 44.46 over the weekend before pulling back beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 44.11.  The Cycles Model shows relative calm, suggesting consolidation beneath the Cycle Top for the next few days.  The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may act as a support.

USD maintained its consolidation, not breaking out on neither the bad news nor the positive news.  While the sideways action may continue temporarily, pressure may be building  for a breakout.

Bitcoin rose toward the 50% retracement level of last week’s decline at 71700.00 this morning.  The correction may be over in a relatively short period, as it may continue the bounce to the 61.8% retracement at 72728.00.

Crude oil prices fell to 84.59 this morning, after reaching 101.66 over he weekend.  The retracement may decline as far as the 52-day Moving Average at 70.14 by mid-April.  This may give temporary relief to our domestic markets, as the US produces most of its own oil.  However, the international markets re in turmoil as, under the best of circumstances, the flow of oil may take weeks to recover.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Update (0745ET): It did not take long for the denials to emerge. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency (which is the propaganda arm of the IRGC so take it with lots of salt)said that anonymous Iranian source, Iran is not in contact with Trump adding that “there is no direct or indirect communication with Trump.”

Silver declined to 61.24 over the weekend session, then bounced to 69.96 this morning.  Silver has been a difficult market to trade due to the high volatility.  The capacity for the decline has not been fully resolved.

ZeroHedge observes, “Silver continues to unravel. We flagged the breakdown below the 50-day not long ago (here), and since then the move has accelerated lower, now taking out the 100-day. Price is approaching the longer-term trendline, with the 200-day just below, a level many thought was “impossible” only weeks ago.

The move is being driven by a mix of positioning unwind and broader macro pressure.”

Gold declined to 4128.70 over the weekend session before starting a bounce to 4569.70.  It may consolidate above the mid-Cycle support at 4124.31 for the next week or so before moving lower.  The intermediate Cycles suggests that, once gold declines beneath 4000.00, it may plummet as low as 3150.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “If you are new to gold, or if you are a speculator in gold (or even worse, a levered speculator in gold), you are likely asking yourselves what in the “H. E. double tooth-picks” just happened to gold?

It lost over 9% in the futures market in a single session and saw its worst week of price declines since February 1983.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

7:45 am  Spring officially begins at 10:46 am today.

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 6549.90 in the overnight session, then bounced, with dealers attempting to push back up above 6600.00.  However, the decline is due to continue to 6500.00-6525.00, and may go lower before the next bounce, which may subsequently be resisted beneath 6600.00.    Yesterday the market experienced a near record of SPX futures liquidations by institutions.  That may continue today.  Speculators are starting to buy SPX calls for next week, signifying a larger potential bounce, but they are still early in the decline.  Meanwhile, retail investors have stayed away, quelling the urge to “buy the dip.”  The liquidation of longs may continue to be orderly, but a panic may develop when the next tranche of short covering/call buying fails. It is more likely that the current Master Cycle in the SPX may terminate near 6200.00.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6650.00.  Long gamma begins above 6665.00, while SPX futures are deep in short gamma beneath 6600.00.  There are several substantial walls of puts down to 6500.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are weaker heading into the weekend after US equities finished lower yesterday despite Netanyahu headlines leading to a late day bounceback into EOD.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the Cycle Top at 23.55 this morning.  In the past, the VIX has been ahead of the SPX moves.  This time, the VIX seems hesitant.  That hesitation may stop when the VIX powers above the neckline of the head &  Shoulders formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has risen above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation this morning near 43.00.  It may indicate a resumption of the rally to the Cycle Top at 44.06 by the end of the month.

11:00 Update

The US 10-year Bond Yield has ramped up to 43.93, already this morning, showing the beginning signs of panic.  The oil market getting tighter, especially in Asia and Europe.  This is driving inflation much higher than expected.

USD bounced, but may be headed lower today.  The fuel for a larger bounce may be at the mid-Cycle support at 98.43.  It simply needs to power to rise through the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.54.

The Japanese Yen bounced today, but it may have already run out of gas.  While it appears strong, it may be too early in the Master Cycle for a firm take-off.  A confirmation of a true reversal may be implied by overtaking resistance at 63.92.  Otherwise it may reverse down to the Cycle Bottom at 61.92 in another week or so.

Bitcoin bounced at Intermediate support at 68867.00 yesterday and may test the 52-day Moving Average at 70500.00 today in a consolidation.  Should the 52-day  resist, bitcoin may resume its decline.  A slip beneath Intermediate support offers a sell signal that may be the onset of a serious decline as early as this weekend.

Silver declined to 70.87 in the overnight session before bouncing to 74.60.  The intraday swings are becoming more powerful, indicating the decline may not be over.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible panic decline over the weekend, then another bounce.  The next support may be the mid-Cycle level at 58.16.  Beneath that, supports may be found at 50.00, 45.00, and 40.00

ZeroHedge comments, “Silver has gone from chaos to “boredom”, and that’s exactly where traders get hurt the most. The panic is gone, but the pain isn’t, as both bulls and bears keep getting chopped up inside a range that refuses to break.”

Gold found support at 4500.00 yesterday and is due for a bounce.  Today it rose to 4736.10 before settling down a bit.  There is a potential for a higher bounce as   Resistance lies at the 52-day Moving Average at 4944.00.  The chop is wearing investors down.

Crude oil may have begun its descent with a new low at 92.48 this morning.  The cycles Model infers a breakdown in oil lasting to mid-April.  There are multiple supports below that may offer a bounce or possibly a reversal.