The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX opened higher this morning, but may be struggling with the Cycle Top resistance at 7743.27.  The jobs report turned out poorly for the month of July, giving an impetus to a possible correction down to the 52-day Moving Average at 7494.82.  That measures out to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a normal retracement value, especially after the sharp, 3-day rally from the Cycle low.  A lesser 50% retracement may go to 7552.85.  Should it emerge above the Cycle Top resistance, a strong rally may follow.

ZeroHedge reported (earlier), “US futures grind higher in a European session devoid of newsflow ahead of nonfarm payrolls. As of 815am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, with some of yesterday’s beaten up tech names such as Sandisk and Western Digital getting some reprieve in the premarket.”

VIX dipped beneath its lower Triangle trendline at 16.40, then paused, suggesting the decline may have temporarily run its course.  Should a bounce develop, it may run as high as the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.65.  Note that the VIX may be caught within its downtrend chanel until mid-September.

The US 10-year Bond Yield ventured lower this morning, toward the next level of support at 45.66.  The Cycles Model suggests the correction may last to the end of August, giving the correction time to test the lower trendline.

USD may be in the process of putting in its Master Cycle low today.  The final numbers may be available at the close.  The mid-Cycle support lies at 99.13, which may provicwe a floor for this Master cycle.

Bitcoin may be gaining some upside momentum today.  The new Master Cycle may be a particularly lively one, lasting to the end of Spetember.  While the Cycle Top resistance at 80962.00 may be tested soon, the ultimate top may be closer to 100 by October.

Crude oil may be sorting through the mid-Cycle resistnce at  resistance at 77.50 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests another probe lower may finish the correction near 70.00.  A reversal from there may take crude oil considerably higher.  Earlier estimates that crude may extend to 130.00 may be conservative.

ZeroHedge observes, “Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is “what keeps her up at night.” She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period.”

Gold may have made its Master Cycle high at 4371.83 on the CME today, completing an unexpected tail on its Triangle formation.  Futures topped out at 4432.10.  A squeeze turned into a momentum chase.  Should this analysis be correct, gold may reverse to complete the next Master Cycle near the lower trendline of tis trading channel at 3500.00.

The ag index has pulled up from its low and is testing the Cycle Top resistance at 392.82.  Should it go higherr, the Neckline of the head & Shoulders fromation awaits.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible four more weeks of rally that may complement the H&S target.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:35

The BaThe Banking Index has just made a new all-time high.  The Cycles Model may allow the rally to continue to the end of the month.  However, there is a strong resistance at the upper trendline near 200.00.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated above the Cycle Top support/resistanceline at 7721.64.  SPX has exceeded its initial target and is now attempteing to go higher.   Although it may do so, it is in a corrective phase which allows it to decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 7482.90 in the next couple of days.  Options markets show investors have quit buying puts and are scrambling for calls.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported earnings.”

NDX futures have declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29388.13 this morning.  Should it break beneath it Intermediate support at 29150.00, it may decline further, possibly beneath 28000.00.  Shorts are still holding seay with the NDX, but it may not last.  The NDX has made an impressive recovery thus far, but Korea’s AI sector is still underwater.  Once a new support has been found, short covering may take the NDX to impressive new highs.

The premarket VIX is consolidating near its low.   It may stay in the current trading range for a couple of days, but the downside track is incomlete and a “tail” should develop soon beneath the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has bounced, but may be repelled by short-term resistance.  If so, TNX may decline further to it 52-day Moving Average at 45.30.  However, the Cycles Model suggests Trending Strength may return over the weekend.  It is possible that T”NX may emerge above its Head & shoulders neckline next week, activating its target mechanism by early September.

ZeroHedge comments, “For yet another quarter, the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding offered no surprises, which considering the state of the US bond market is probably not a bad thing.”

The US Dollar may have emerged from a retest of its uptrend line near 99.50 and may be ready to show strength in its move higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a particularly long-lived uptrend may have befun, fueled by the Dollar shorts.

Bitcoin is tentatively emerging from a Poaaible Master Cycle low at the 52-day Moving Average.  It may have made an aggressive buy signal, but confirmation comes above the mid-Cycle resistance at 69236.00.  Demand for bitxoin may be coming from Japan and Europe, both  of which are showing signs of crisis.  The new uptrend may last to the end of September.

ZeroHedge muses, “Looks like $100,000 bitcoin may be on deck, because Cramer is selling.”

Crude oil has bounced toward Intermediate resistance at 77.23 this morning.  However, the Fractal structure may be incomplete, leaving yet another probe lower.  A possible floor may be found at round number support at 70.00.  The Cycles Model suggests the eversal may arrive in the next week.

Gold may be finalizing a very stretched Master Cycle today, as the gold bulls emerge from hiding.  On Tuesday I mused that,  “A brief probe above the Triangle is possible…”  Well, there it is.  The Cycles Model calls for a decline to mid-September.  A sell signal may be offered beneath the 52-day Moving Average.  Thetarget for this decline may be near the lower trading channel trendline at 3500.00.  However, it may go deeper than some people project.

ZeroHedge opines, “On July 27th, 2026, I penned an article proclaiming, “Gold may have just bottomed.”

I missed the exact lows by a few days, but the charts are signaling that the lows are in. What I’m about to show you are some of the most bullish charts in the markets today.”

The Agriculture Index may have just completed its minimum retracement from its July 24th high.  Should that be so, it may probe back above the Head & shoulders neckline, activating that formation.  The alternate view may be another week of decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 372.28.  The Cycles Model reveals a possible burst of strength over the weekend that may favor the first option.

ZeroHedge observes, “UBS analysts identified five long-term forces likely to keep global food inflation “structurally higher” above its pre-pandemic average of about 2.5%, crushing consumer hopes that price pressures will simply fade.

“While food inflation globally has fallen from the COVID peak, a new debate is emerging: is the c2.5% LT average obsolete?” London-based managing director and equity-research analyst Sreedhar Mahamkali asked in a note penned on Monday.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7630.90, a new all-time high this morning.  The first resistance lies at he Cycle Top at 7699.05.  The fundamentals show that incresing profits from AI may be exceeding rising costs.  The Cycles Model infers that equities may continue to rise to mid-September.  Fractal analysis suggests an average target around 8600.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures are trading at all time high with the latest push higher triggered by comments from Scott Bessent on CNBC who echoed Trump in saying that “we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz” (or we may not).”

The premarket VIX is lingering near yesterday’s lows, but hasn’t broken lower.  The Cycles Model shows the VIX on a declining path with the next support near 15.00.  The Triangle “tail” may not develop until later in August.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has slipped beneath the Cycle Top support at 46.80.  The cycles Model allows a brief pullback as far as the 52-day Moving Average at 45.32, but expects a possible resumption of the uptrend by the weekend.  There may be a battle to keep the 10-year yield beneath the neckline at 47.00.

The USD reversed from its Master Cycle low at the trendline yesterday and is regrouping this morning.  The USD is due for a surge of strength imminently that may challenge the 52-day  Moving Average at 100.48.  A potential buy signal awaits a probe above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.48.  The new master Cycle may continue to mid-October.

The Yen surged last week due to government intervention to strengthen the currency.  The Cycles Model sugests that the intervention may have failed.  Should that be so, the Yen may plummet to new lows by the end of August.   A collapse to 35.00 may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin may have emerged from its Master Cycle low at 62223.59 on Monday and has risen above the 52-day Moving Average at 63362.63.  A possible buy signal may be at hand, should it close above the 52-day.

Crude oil has declined beneath the Intermediate support at 77.29 suggesting a further decline is possible.  The next probable target may be 70.00.  The decline may extend to the weekend or early next week.

ZeroHedge comments, “Another fake ceasefire in progress? Or are we to believe it’s for real this time? There’s nothing on the ground-level at all that currently suggests the warring sides are imminently about to agree to a new ceasefire, or are so much as back at the negotiating table.”

The Triangle formation remains persistent in gold, but the Cycles Model suggests a breakdown may be imminent.  A brief probe above the Triangle formation is possible today, but gravity may take over quickly from there.  The Cycles Model infers the decline may go to mid-September to the lower trading channel trendline at 3500.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:05 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7539.60 this morning, on its way to new highs.  It has risen above the 52-day Moving Average at 7467.93 on Friday, creating a buy signal.  Trending strength returns this week as confidence grows.  The next hurdle for the rally may be the Cycle Top resistance at 7690.73.  The fractal structure allows a long-lived rally.  8600.00 is possible.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher with both tech and small caps outperforming as Trump points to a deal/advanded discussions with Iran (which Iran is naturally denying), which is helping push energy prices and bond yields lower as the USD depreciates.”

The premarket VIX is hovering near Friday’s close.  The VIX ix on a sell signaland may be destined to create a very large tail beneath the Triangle formation.  VIX appears to be calming down, after the bloodletting in the leveraged ETF products.

The US 10-year bond yield has come down from Friday’s high above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  However, it is testing the support of the Cycle Top at 46.74.  Should it close above it, the rally may remain intact.  The Cycles Model infers a higher than usual volatility in the next day or so followed by an increasing trending strength that may last to early September.

The US Dollar may have hit its Master cycle low this morning as it bounces near it 200-day Moving Average at 99.16.  There may be room for a probe lower, but the fractal structure may be complete.  In the meantime, formation analysis shows the neckline of the Head & Shoulders needed to be moved to the June 24 high.  The uptrend remains intact along with a buy signal.  The Cycles Model indictes the return of trending strength later this week

Bitcoin has been busy this morning.  I may have made its Master Cycle low over the weekend and is now challenging the 52-day Moving average at 63370.00.  However, we must wait for the dust to settle before commiting to the upside.  A close  above the 52-day may offer an aggressive buy signal.

Crude oil declined this morning, remaining above Intermediate support at 77.03 and the 200-day Moving Average at 75.82.  The Cycles Model suggests another possible week of decline with a target near 70.00.

Gold futures have becoms increasingly compressed within the Triangle formation.  Gold may show an increasing strength as it breaks down over the next few days.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:40 am

Good Morning!  I am changing my schedule to post after the open.  I may only comment on those indexes that show a significant change or outlook.

SPX opened above the 52-day Moving Average at 7467.00 this morning.  This constitutes a buy signal.  The leveraged tech sell-off is exhausted.  The Cycles Model now allows approximately 6 weeks of rally.  A potential fractal target may be 8600.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “A broad rally in US tech stocks is extending for a second day, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising over 1%. Amazon is the standout in premarket trading, up by 12% after reporting a fifth quarter of cloud sales growth, while Apple is sinking 7% after its sales forecast was dented by industry-wide supply shortages.”

VIX has declined beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 17.44, creating a sell signal.  The decline may also stretch to mid-september.

ZeroHedge comments, ” Markets have a habit of explaining every move with the most obvious narrative available. This week, that narrative was earnings. Investors spent days dissecting cloud growth, AI capex, free cash flows, and also Fed messaging, while some of the most dramatic price action of this summer was being driven by something else entirely.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield has probed above the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation, reiterating the buy signal.  The fact that both stocks and bonds appear to be in sync is baffling to many domestic analysts.  The Cycles Model suggests bonds may rally to early September.  The H&S formation may now be in play.

USD may have put in its Master Cycle low yesterday.  A rise above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.46 may offer a buy signal.  Aascent above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation projects a target of 105.50.  The Cycles Model allows the new rally to continue to mid-October, leaving room for an even higher potential target (near 108.00).

Crude oil has risen above its 52-day Moving Average at 83.05, reiterating its buy signal.  WTI may go higher, targeting the Cycle Top resistance at 110.48.  A breakout above that level moves the potential target to 130.00.

Gold may have completed its Triangle formation, not producing a tail above it.  The outcome may be an imminent breakdown.  The Cycles Model offers a potential return of strength next week that may propel gold significantly lower.  The Cycles Model allows gold to decline to mid-September.   The lower trendline beneath3600.00 may be in play.

The Ag Index may be setting up for a violent reversal as it approaches Intermediate support at 375.92.  Should it do so, the recovery may last to early September.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have reversed from yesterday’s Master Cycle low.  The reversal was rather volatile, as SPX rose to its descending trendline (instead of the 52-day Moving Average), then revisited the bottom, making a new low.  This morning’s futures have recovered and we may consider an aggressive buy signal after the forced selling of leveraged bets has been exhausted.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures rebound (for now) following yesterday’s Fed-induced meltdown as the market is clearly questioning Warsh’s credibility and potential usage of non-standard tools to fight inflation, pushing the yield curve to twist steeper and sending 30Y yields to 2 decade highs (last at 5.22%).”

VIX has backed away from the upper trendline of its declining trading channel.  It is now set on a glidepath to the bottom of the channel beneath the Triangle formation.  Investors may hate the grinding down of the VIX despite rising market risk.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has risen above the Cycle Top at 46.60 and is currently testing it for possible support.  Should it rise abovbe the neckline at 47.00, a short squeeze may develop.  The Cycles Model suggests the squeeze may intensify by early next week.

Bitcoin bounced off the 52-day Moving Average at 63328.00, heading for the mid-Cycle resistance at 69969.00 as it wraps up the final days of its Master Cycle.

Crude oil is testing support at the 52-day Moving Average.  Should it decline beneath it, the mid-Cycle level at 76.90 may offer support.  The lack of nearby strength indicators imply that may happen, with a resumption of the uptrend by mid-August.

Gold is challenging the upper trendline of a minor Triangle formation.  Should it break out, it may rise to the 52-day Moving Average at 4221.04.  That action may extend the Master Cycle by 8 days, but a reversal may follow on its heels.  This may not count as an actionable move for the longs, but rather a trap.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:15 am

BKX has made a definitive decline beneath the Cycle Topat 189.54, putting it on an aggressive sell signal.  There is a trendline and Intermediate support at 184.80, beneath which lies a confirmed sell signal.

12:20 pm

SPX has completed its downdraft, or nearly so today as the market awaits the 2:00 pm FOMC press release followed by the press conference at 2:30 pm.   This morning I had mentioned the the SPX may break above the 52-day Moving Average at 7471 by the end of the day.  The volatility following the Fed announcement may be the catalyst for a reversal.

The NDX also probed lower  this morning, but may also partake in the reversal this afternoon.

9:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures pressed higher this morning, to 7465.20, before easing back.  The 52-day Moving Average lies at 7470.05, barring the SPX from going higher.  Yet the Cycles Model infers that the SPX may break above that by the end of the day.  Yesterday’s positive close yesterday belied the turmoil underneath as hedge funds had their worst day on record!

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, overlooking both tech-led declines in Asia which saw the Kospi crash as much as 13% and trigger a second consecutive 20 minute market-wide halt, and the 5% jump in oil prices which has pushed Brent over $88.”

NDX may have finally made its master Cycle low overnight as losses piled up for investors.  Overnight futures made a low at 27494.20, but managed a bounce to 28000.00 before the open as the NDX may have exhausted its selling.

The premarket VIX rose to 18.94, above the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.73.  Yet, the VIX is being contianed by the upper trendline of its descending trading channel at 20.00.  The overriding formation is a 2.5 year Triangle that insists on owning a tail.  The Cycles Model suggests a declining VIX into the month of September.

TNX attempted a bounce this morning, but found resistance at the Cycle Top at 46.54.  The next lower suport is the combinde 52-day and Intermediate supports at 45.26.  The pullback may last until the weekend.  Trending strength may return in early August.  A possible renewed rally may then take hold to early September.  The Head & Shoulders formation may be activated abooove the neckline at 47.00.

The US Dollar index is consolidating beneath its Cycle Top at 101.57.  A breakout above the Cycle Top may produce a sharp rally.  However, the Cycles Model does not indicate strength for another week, allowing the USD to fall back to its 52-day Moving Average currently at 100.43.

Bitcoin has bounced from its 52-day Moving Average at 63311.00 this morning.  The Cycles Model calls for a terminal Master Cycle in the next week and indications are that trending strength may reappear to send BTC toward the mis-Cycle resistance at 70101.00 by early next week.

Crude oil soared back above the 52-day Moving Average at 83.78, reinstating the buy signal after finding a floor at Intermediate support at 77.83. The Cycles Model infers the next resistance the rally may be the Cycle Top at 110.36.  Should it exceed that level, crude may rise to 130.00, or higher.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Summary

• Oil soars on reports of Iran targeting US Jordan base; Iraqi militants attack KSA for 2nd day.
• Hormuz indirect talks continue amid reports of a possible resurrected MoU deal.
• Shipping remains stalled with virtually no tanker traffic through Hormuz.
• Iran insists Hormuz stays closed unless its terms are accepted.
• Houthis escalate attacks, prompting more ships to avoid the Red Sea.”

Gold is challenging round number support at 4000.00 as it fell to 3996.13 this morning.  Today may show downside strength, breaking the month-long sideways consolidation.  Should it do so, the next support may be the Cycle Bottom at 3768.39.  Note that the new Master Cycle may be a long one, suggesting the lower trendline may be a more appropriate target.

The Agriculture index is consolidating around its Cycle Top at 390.75.  The Cycles Model indicate today as a day of strength.  Should it break above the neckline, the Ag index may proceed higher until early September, giving adequate time to meet or exceed the head & Shoulders formation target.

ZeroHedge observes, “Less than a week after we reported that an options whale placed a $20 million bet on corn futures, a new U.S. crop report revealed the sharpest weekly deterioration in conditions in three years.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures remain within yesterday’s trading range thus far.  The Master Cycle low remains at July 26 at 7376.00.  The possibility of a final probe beneath 7376.00 remains viable yet today.  However, the shorts may have  become exhausted as chip stocks tank.  Pressure may be building for a breakout.  The Cycles Model suggests a surge in trending strength may be imminent.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures extend Monday’s losses as the Tech tape continues to unravel; global Semis were hit yesterday and again overnight (despite the best attempts of Goldman and JPM to force retail to buy the falling knives) with Asian stocks and especially Korea (-10%) bearing the brunt with fears of Chinese competition accelerating the sell-off and then spilling back over into the US.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:05 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7489.40 thus far this morning, after bouncing off Thursday’s low at 7376.00.  It has crossed above the 52-day Moving Average at 7469.51, creating a buy signal.  The new master cycle may run upward to mid-September.  While investors and hedge funds bought downside protection, the way was cleared for a reversal.  Trending strength may reappear imminently as shorts cover above the 52-day Moving Average.

ZeroHedge reports, “A sharp drop in oil prices prompted by a quieter weekend for geopolitics and a pause in MidEast hostilities also sparked a drop in bond yields and the USD. A powerful relief rally in stocks and bonds emerged after a lull in hostilities in the Middle East, and started a week packed with earnings and a stack of interest-rate decisions on a positive note.”

The premarket VIX fell to a morning low at 17.53 thus far, aiming at the 52-day Moving Average at 17.40.00.  A period of strength may be upon the VIX, possibly driving the VIX beneath the 52-day and offering a sell signal.  Cross asset volatility is considered too low to offer a clear direction to the market.  Nevertheless, The Cycles Model explains that volatility is due to go lower as risk aversion is put aside in a rising equities market.

The US Dollar index is consolidating beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 101.51 after challenging it on Thursday.  Should it break out above the Cycle Top, the Head & Shoulders target comes into play.   In the meantime, the neckline and Intermediate support may provide a floor at 100.88.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has pulled back to test the Cycle Top support at 46.45.  Should it hold, TNX may continue its probe upward toward its Head & Shoulders target at 54.72 through the month of August.  The alternate view is a further pullback to the 52-day Moving Average at 45.22 before probing higher.

Bitcoin is consolidating above its 52-day Moving Average at 63086.00.  The Cycles Model allows another week or so of potential rally toward the mid-Cycle resistance at 70364.00.

Crude oil fell beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 84.56 this morning after breaking the downtrend line above 90.00.  Should it drift lower, the next support lies at the Intermediate level at 78.34 with a follow-up floor at the mid-Cycle support at 76.55.  However, The month of August brings possible upside strength that may propel WTI to 130.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Oil futures are being offered this morning after President Trump on Friday declined to continue strikes on Iran. The ‘pause’ was extended over the weekend and reciprocated by the Iranians, marking the first ‘cease’ of the ceasefire in almost a fortnight.”

Gold was rejeced again at Intermediate resistance at 4115.00 yhis morning.  The sideways consolidation may break down as early as Wednesday.  The Cycles Model has gold resuming its descent through the month of August with the minimum decline to the Cycle Bottom at 3766.80.  However, it may extend to mid-September with the lower trendline of the trading channel in mind.

The Ag Indes reversed down this morning from its Master Cycle high on Friday.  This action normally allows GKX to pull back for a period of 2-3 weeks.  However, a dose of strength on Thursday may push GKX higher.  Trending strength may also return in early August with a resumption of the trend above the neckline.  The Head & Shoulders target may be realized by early September.

BKX rose above the Cycle Top support/resistance line at 189.00, but fell back.  A further decline may create a possible aggressive sell signal.  A further decline beneath Intermediate support at 184.03 may confirm the sell signal.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:30 am

Good Morning!  SPX has declined to a morning low at 7408.24, extending the Mster Cycle.  .  The uptrend is still intact, although it has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7469.39.  The nearest support lies at 7400.00.  Bear country lies  beneath the June 26 low at 7294.18.  This is one of the most difficult formations I have dealt with recently as the SPX appears directionless.  However, the Master Cycle extension warns that a reversal may be imminent.

The DJIA may also be extending its Master Cycle.  There is a trendline in line with the 52-day Moving Average at 51337.00 that may provide support for the Dow, thereby preserving the uptrend.

The SPX VIX has bounced to the upper trendline of an Ending Diagonal formation.  Should the trendline repel, the VIX may then decline toward the lower trendline near 14.00, forming a tail to the Triangle formation through early September.  What is unusual is that crude oil is increasing, while VIX remains complacent.  Traditional technical analysis is not working.

The US 10-year Bond Yield gapped up above a Head & Shoulders necline, obliterating the Triangle formation and reinstating the bullish outlook on yields.  While the H&S formation may be activated through early September, an even larger bullish formation potentially targets 80.00 by the end of the year.

Crude oil surged above the 52-day Moving Average at 84.92, challenging the downtrend line of the Triangle.  This provides the recognition that the dwontrend may be broken, forcing the shorts to cover.  The Cycle Top resistance at 110.07, a potential consolidation level,  is in view.  Crude may go higher.  Note that the current Master Cycle may last to mid-August.  Potential panic days may develop in August.

Zerohedge observes, “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is “begging for a deal” and “they need to come to their senses,” adding that Tehran will “pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing.” ”

Gold was repelled at the trendlinelinked to Intermediate resistance at 4134.23, after extending its Master Cycle.  A new Master Cycle begins, suggesting a decline to mid-September.  While the Cycle Bottom at 3762.93 may provide a bounce, the trading channel trendline beneath 3600.00 may be the ultimate target.  Analysts suggest that central bank buying may provide a floor for gold.  However, central banks may also be concerned about the rising price of oil.

The Ag Index broke out above the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation near 398.00.  While the current Master Cycle may be nearing its end, it could extend for possibly another week.  Should it do so, there is a possibility of a panic rally into the end of the month.

ZeroHedge advises, “The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) climbed to a three-year high Wednesday as widening conflict across critical energy and grain trade corridors, from the Black Sea to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea, collided with scorching heat waves across Europe and the US and mounting El Niño risks in critical agri growing belts, reviving the threat of global food inflation.”

BKX fell beneath its Cycle Top support 188.31, reiterating its aggressive sell signal.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible panic episode early next week with increasing strength throughout the Month of August.