The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:56 am

The Ag Index is pulling back from the 50-day Moving Average, offering investors more opportunity to “buy the dip.”  The current Master Cycle may extend through mid-June.  Once it returns above the 50-day the next visible resistance may be the Cycle Top at 408.76.

ZeroHedge observes, “America’s declining cattle herd is nothing short of alarming, and some ranchers call it a “national security threat” to the nation’s food supply chain. This continues to be a major theme fueling record-high cattle prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and beef prices at the local supermarket. Elevated interest rates and soaring input costs under the Biden-Harris regime years have made it increasingly difficult to maintain or rebuild herds—challenges that are expected to persist early in President Trump’s second term.”

10:27 am

BKX has resumed its decline toward the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 99.68.  Liquidity is vanishing fast from the markets (see below).  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last to mid-May.

The Japanese Yen continues its upward probe above the Cycle Top resistance at 70.70, possibly testing the September 16 high at 71.55.  Today may be the last day of the current Master Cycle, suggesting a pullback may be due shortly.  However, there is another reversal due at the end of April that may propel the Yen to new highs later in May.  The Yen carry is endangering the low interest loans made at .1%.  The twist is that the payback may have risen as much as 13%, leaving the yen carry debtors in a possible default.

7:35 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures have declined to 17968.60 this morning, declining beneath the Cycle Bottom support at 18018.68 and confirming the sell signal.  The next probable support level is the April low at 16542.20.   The current Master Cycle may decline to mid-June, per the Cycles Model.  Last week’s rally which ended on Monday stopped short of its usual parameters involving a retest of the trendline and 50-day Moving Average at 20082.00.  This truncation does not bode well for the the health of the NDX going forward.  The race to build a new AI model is burning a hole in the Mega cap corporate cash flow which may disappoint investors.  Critical support lies at the 1987 trendline at 15200.00.

SPX futures have declined to a morning low at 5209.80, beneath the Cycle Bottom support at 5264.96.  This confirms the sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests 6 weeks of decline may be ahead.    SPX turned down last week without challenging the 1987 trendline, a sign of investor exhaustion.  Critical support lies at the current April 7 low at 4835.00.  Should SPX find support there, there may be an outside opportunity for the SPX to rally to new highs.  We may see the SPX struggle to maintain that support this week.  However, there are factors that  may dictate a continued decline

Tooday’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5300.00.  Long gamma may begin above 5350.00 while short gamma strengthened beneath 5250.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “With most global markets still closed for Easter holiday, US equity futures start the week sharply lower while the dollar and Treasuries plunge (10s and 30s are 8bp and 10bps higher as the yield curve twists steeper) as traders reacted to the possibility that Trump will try to remove Powell. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.3% and Nasdaq futures slide 1.5% with Mag7 names under pressure with INTC/NFLX among the bright spots in TMT. European stock markets were largely still shut for a public holiday. The dollar is set up to have its worst day in 2 weeks, plunging to a 15 month low, and sending precious metals soaring: gold was above $3400 at last check. Energy is weaker, Ags/base metals are higher. There is also trouble in trade deal  land with Japan pushing back on US demands for its trade deal, while China warns trading partners against mistreatment in any deal made with the US. It’s a quiet day with just the Leading index on today’s calendar (10am); Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at 8:30am.”

VIX futures rose to a morning high at 32.89 above the Cycle Top at 31.24.  That action reconfirms the buy signal.  That leaves the August 5 high at 665.73 as the next resistance to the rally.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible new high in about two weeks.

The April 23 options chain shows Max Pain at 26.00.  Short gamma may begin beneath 25.00 while long gamma strengthens above 30.00.

TNX futures rose to 44.10 over the weekend, while the newly-opened cash market shows a high of 44.01.  It has risen from a low on April 16 at 42.75, surpassing the 50-day Moving Average at 43.28 and creating a buy signal for yields.  The Cycles Model calls for a 6-week rally that may exceed the Cycle Top resistance at 47.99.

USD futures declined to a morning low at 97.68 and may have reached the Master Cycle low on day 259 within target parameters of 96.00-98.00.  Should today be the low, we may see a very sharp move beginning as early as Wednesday to the upside.  The USD demise may be postponed.  The Cycles Model infers a rally may dominate the USD actions until mid-June.

Bitcoin rose to 87772.39 this morning, extending its Master Cycle to day 266.00.  While the Cycles may often be precise within a few days, occasionally extraneous events may speed up or postpone them within certain parameters.  Today’s extension has as much to do with the fractal structure being completed as it has to do with the USD making a new low today.

Gold futures rose to 3435.90 this morning and may be approaching a new Master Cycle high at a possible round number resistance of 3500.00.   Why is gold going higher in the absence of inflation?  The reason may be political instability.  Europe appears to be preparing for war.  With that realization, banks and other institutions are buying gold, not for the appreciation, but for an asset that will survive a war since most currencies will default.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:05 pm

SPX has been unable to complete its retracement, leaving a truncated fractal.  The retracement barely made the 50% level, which is unusual this close to an all-time high. A close beneath the daily Cycle Bottom support at 5265.00 confirms a sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline may follow until mid-June.

The DJIA was able to make a higher retracement by 13 points on April 15, qualifying it for a Master Cycle high.  Prepare for a possible decline lasting to mid-June.

10:19 am

BKX was unable to make its final surge to a new retracement high.  The Cycles Model infers a decline in the making by next week.  It may decline beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation by the end of next week.  The evidence produced by the Cycles Model suggests a series of panic down days in early May.

9:59 am

The Ag Index is on its way higher after surpassing the 50-day Moving Average at 388.59.  For the past month the Ag index has been in an “accumulation phase.”  Today the buy signal is twice confirmed.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue through mid-June.  The potential taret may be the Head & Shoulders neckline at 421.00.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

This morning’s SPX futures rose to 5341.86, above the Cycle Bottom where it had closed yesterday.  Futures are easing lower.  Should the SPX open beneath the Cycle Bottom at 5270.00, the decline which started yesterday may continue.  Corporate insiders are buying shares ahead of the buyback blackout ending.  However, they may be assuming the resumption of the uptrend.  As you can see, the SPX is well beneath the long-term uptrend, the 1987 trendline.  The Cycles Model suggests that, once the decline takes hold, it may continue for the next two months.  The green Master Cycle may have ended on Monday in a truncated fashion, suggesting the turn may have occurred prematurely.  There may be a slight risk of the SPX running up to the trendline by Monday.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5350.00.  Long gamma may begin at a highly contested 5400.00 while short gamma strengthened beneath 5300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have bounced back from yesterday’s rout, following positive signals from initial US-Japan trade talks after President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” to strike a deal fueling optimism over trade negotiations. Still, as of 8:00am they are well off their highs after DJIA heavyweight member UnitedHealthcare plunged 20% after slashing outlook on care costs and after President Donald Trump berated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to cut interest rates; S&P 500 futures rising 0.4% having earlier risen as much as 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.8% with Mag7 names mostly higher as US-listed shares of TSMC rose 3.8% in premarket after forecasting sales for the second quarter that topped estimates. European stock fell and Asian markets rose. Volatility is becoming less extreme as the VIX retreated to around 30, down from last week’s peak of about 52. The dollar edged higher while the yen drops, lagging G-10 currencies. Gold dipped from record highs but was still trading above $3300 while oil rose for a second day after the US vowed to reduce Iran’s energy exports to zero.”

VIX futures declined to 30.22, but recovered back above the Cycle Top support at 31.08.   The VIX remains on a buy signal.  The Cycles Model anticipates a series of panic-up days over the next three weeks that may break records.  Today over $2.6 trillion of notional options exposure will expire, including $1.2 trillion of SPX options and $480 billion notional of single stock options.

The April 23 options chain shows Max Pain at 25.00.  Short gamma resides between 13.50 and 21.00.  Long gamma may begin at 30.00 and extends to 60.00.

TNX is declining further this morning and may be hours away from a Master Cycle low.  The potential target may be the Intermediate and mid-Cycle support at 42.19.  The Cycles Model suggests a very strong reversal on Monday, followed by rising rates through mid-May.  Should TNMX exceed the 50-day Moving Average at 43.20, the reversal may have been accomplished with a new buy signal.

ZeroHedge remarks, “As US equity markets continue to fall – and recession calls mount from establishment elites, despite strong ‘hard’ data’ – President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Powell via TruthSocial this morning exclaiming that Powell’s termination from his position can’t come quickly enough, arguing that the US central bank should have lowered interest rates already this year, and in any case should do so now.

ZeroHedge reports, “After last week’s basis trade collapse (which we now know has already claimed several relative value multistrat hedge funds), many were dreading the outcome of today’s 20Y auction, a reopening of 19-Year, 10-Month cusip UJ5. It turned out they have nothing to fear.

The $13BN auction priced at 1:01pm ET at a high yield of 4.810%, up sharply from last month’s 4.632% and the highest since February; more importantly it stopped through the When Issued 4.814% by 0.4bps, the second consecutive stop through (if fractionally weaker than last month) and 3rd in the past 4 months.

USD futures may be consolidating near the Cycle Bottom at 99.23 in order to make the final probe beneath it.  A potential target may reside between 96.00 and 98.00.  The Cycles Model suggest a strong turning point on Monday, followed by a panic rally by mid-week.

Gold futures rose to 3371.89 during the overnight session, but have come back down in the red in a likely extension of the Master Cycle to day 274.  The Cycles Model calls for a three-week decline from the top.  There may be at least two panic down days in the interim.  Keep in mind that the uptrend has lasted for 9 years and is due for a major correction.   On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold has finally caught up to the 1980 high.   

Crude oil futures rose to 63.67, rising above the Cycle Bottom resistance at 63.22.  Crude is on a confirmed buy signal.   The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last to the end of May.  The narrow trading channel suggests the rally may rise above the Cycle Top at 79.58.  A longer-term target may be the March 2022 high at 126.42.

Bitcoin is struggling to keep above the 50-day Moving  average at 84205.00 and Intermediate support at 836156.00.  Once beneath these levels, Bitcoin is on a sell signal until mid-June.  The Cycles Model calls for an immediate surging decline followed by two possible panic down days next week.  This doesn’t appear healthy, at all.  China may have instigated a form of capital controls with a twist.

ZeroHedge comments, ” Local governments in China are reportedly seeking ways to offload seized crypto while facing challenges due to the country’s ban on crypto trading and exchanges.

The absence of clear rules on how authorities should manage seized cryptocurrency has led to “inconsistent and opaque approaches,” which some lawyers fear could open the door to corruption, according to an April 16 report by Reuters.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:13 pm

SPX did not complete a final thrust higher today.  While there may be a belated attempt at pushing it higher in the next day or so, it has crossed beneath the Cycle Bottom at 5280.50 creating a sell signal.  Take appropriate action.

ZeroHedge notes, “Update (1330ET): Key highlights from Powell’s prepared remarks:

Powell said: “tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.”

“The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Powell again stressed the central bank’s focus on preventing potential tariff-driven price hikes from triggering a more persistent rise in inflation.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said.”

8:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 5307.10 this morning, as it prepares for a final thrust to the trendline just above 5500.00.  The 50% retracement value is 5491.00.  Should there be a surge in the next few days. it may reach as high as the mid-cycle resistance at 5768.00.  This market may be full of surprises in the next few days.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5400.00.  Long gamma may strengthen above 5425.00 while short gamma appears beneath 5350.00.  Today appears to be a quiet day in the options market.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower after NVDA unveiled the US government restricted export of its H2) chips to China, sending the stock -6% lower pre-market and dragging the broader market lower; Europe chip giant ASML Holding NV reported disappointing results further denting the semi space. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures slide 1.5%, with the balance of Mag7 and Semis, all weaker (AMD -6.2%, AVGO -3.3%). Futures had been even lower overnight but bounced shortly after 4am ET after China said to be open to trade talks with some preconditions, including (i) consistency of message and respectful approach; (ii) one person to negotiate that is not Trump but has his authority; with the goal of having a signable agreement before the leaders meet in person. Bond yields are mixed as the curve twists steeper while USD weakness continues, sending the Bloomberg dollar index to a 6 month low. Commodities are rallying today with all 3 complexes higher; WTI crude oil futures are up about 1%, gold futures more than 2%, extending their recent advance. Precious is standing out to the upside, with gold hitting a new record high above $3300. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales.”

VIX futures probed to 33.63 in the overnight session, rested above the Cycle Top support/resistance at 30.63.  That action may be a buy signal for the VIX.

Today’s options expiration shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma lies between 15.00 and 20.00.  Long gamma may begin at 22.00 and strengthens above e350..0.

TNX slipped beneath the trendline and the 50-day Moving Average at 43.36, but appears to be strengthening on day 254 of the Master Cycle.  This may be a bit too soon for a reversal, as there may be a strong likelihood of completing the decline to the mid-Cycle support at 42.19.  Figures from the basis trade blow-up last week are beginning to emerge.  Total assets in the multi-strategy trades are near $1.5 trillion.  A lot is at stake her in attempting to mitigate losses in the Treasury market.

Bitcoin is slipping beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 84182.00.  This may produce a sell signal with legs, as today may bring strength to the new trend.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last until mid-June with the August low as a possible target.

Gold futures edged up against the April 11 high, but did not exceed it.  Investor enthusiasm is at a fever pitch, so what could go wrong?  Commentators are gleefully predicting an imminent collapse in the USD and continued rally in gold.

USD is hovering just above the April 11 low on day 254 of the Master Cycle.  The decline may extend over the weekend, as mentioned last week, the probable target may be in the range of 96.00-98.00.  Momentum traders are shorting the USD, putting on more downside pressure.

The Japanese Yen continues its climb this morning to a new high at 70.39.  This action is wreaking havoc with the Yen carry trade as the year-to-date appreciation exceeds 11%.  Those that borrowed in Yen at .10% now have to contend with capital losses far exceeding any possible savings from the lower interest rate.  This action is draining liquidity further from the markets.  The Cycles Model suggests a final surge to the neckline at 71.55 may be in order over the next few days.  The Cycles Model signals a wild double reversal in the next 2-3 weeks that may propel the Yen above the Head & Shoulders neckline.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:50 am

BKX has just a few more days left in the Master Cycle to make a  new high.  The normal retracement would allow BKX to rise to the mid-Cycle resistance at 123.25.  The 50-day Moving Average lies at 125.83.  However, time is running out.  Should TNX run lower, it may propel BKX to its targets.  A lot his riding on the bond market at this time.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures are consolidating near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.  The bounce stil has further to go.  The minimum retracement would be near the 50% retracement value or to the Intermediate resistance at 19505.99.  The Cycles Model points toward the multiple resistance including the 30-month trendline, mid-Cycle resistance, the 50-day Moving average and the 61.8% retracement level at 20000.00-20362.23.  Analysts are asking, “Does the price action continue to turn away from US assets?”

SPX futures are also consolidating during this shortened week.  The minimum target for this retracement may be at 5500.00, where the 50% Fib retracement may be met.  Intermediate resistance is declining at a rate of 18 to 20 points per day and currently at 5601.00.   The 50-day Moving Average and mid-Cycle resistance are at 5769.36, right on top of the 61.8% Fibonacci level.  However, that may entail running above the 1987 trendline near 5575.00.  Having reviewed the price levels, the time element may not run out until early next week.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5380.00.  Long gamma may begin at 5400.00 whil short gamma resided beneath 5300.00.  Options may not be playing a big role in price action today.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures swung between gains and losses after a two-day advance as traders focused on signs that the Trump administration may add more tariff exemptions to ease the economic turmoil of the trade war. As of 8:00am S&P 500 were down -0.3% and Nasdaq futures dipped -0.2%, although both indexes were in the green just minutes earlier with moves now happening so fast and jittery, it has become meaningless to keep tabs. Boeing sank 4% in premarket trading after China ordered airlines not to take any further deliveries of the company’s jets; elsewhere, Mag7 and Semis are leading TMT higher with Fins higher into earnings. Other Cyclicals like Energy/Industrials are mixed with Materials higher led by gold miners. In Europe, stocks pushed higher after Trump floated a pause in auto tariffs.  Bond yields are +/- 1bp as the curve twists flatter; USD is flat as it looks to ease 5 consecutive days of losses. The commodity complex is weaker with crude and base weaker, gold up, and Ags mixed. The macro data focus is on import/export prices and Empire Mfg plus earnings from GSIB Banks, transports, and a HC (and Defensives factor) bellwether, JNJ.”

The Shanghai Composite is consolidating near its high of the week  above the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation.  The next probable turn date may be on Friday, while our markets are closed.  Thus far the PBOC has been buying stocks to maintain the optics of stability, but that may give way to economic and technical reality as it declines back beneath the lip.  Any advantage that Chinese stocks may reveal may disappear as the index declines to or beneath the Cycle Bottom.

ZeroHedge comments, “Last week we explained how the escalating trade war between the US and China has gradually transformed into a theatrical war of who has the upper hand on any given day. And since it takes a long time for trade obstructions to hit the underlying economy, investors are keenly eyeing the stock, and especially FX, markets for any and every (early) indications of who has the upper hand (even if they are, as we show below, completely false).”

VIX futures have made a marginal new low at 29.59 which may mark the end of the retracement, or nearly so.  The 61.8% retracement level is near 33.50.  The 75% retracement lies near 27.75.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 20.50.  Sjprt ga,,a resided betweem 15.00 and 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 21.00 and runs as high as 75.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Post peak fear

Volatility has cooled from its April highs, but the market’s nerves are still frayed. While the VIX term structure flattens and SPX range compresses, deeper cracks—like MOVE’s stubborn grip and skew distortions—remind us that healing takes time.

We have seen volatility

April VIX future (UX1 Index) is now at 29 vs being 39 last Tuesday… Aside from February 2018 (‘volmageddon’) … highest 10d realized volatility in last 10+ years … yes, above COVID (GS derivatives).”

TNX bounced off the trendline and 50-day Moving Average at 43.42 this morning.  However, this decline only made a 38.2% retracement thus far.  Today  is day 253 of the Master Cycle, either suggesting the retracement may be over, or a very sharp move may be made in the next week that could bring the 10-year yield lower.  While the basis trade appears contained and foreign selling does not appear in the fore, there may be pressure to keep yields down.  The fact that bot stocks and bonds took a hit last week has shaken investor confidence.

USD bounced off Friday’s low, signaling a potential early end to the Master Cycle.  However, there may be room to decline another 3 points by early next week.  Should that occur, we may see a powerful rally out of the low.

Bitcoin is consolidating beneath Friday’s high.  Time may be running out for another probe higher.  By next week the opportunity to raise price levels may have run out.  In fact, the Cycles Model suggests a very strong downdraft may be revealed by mid-week.

Gold futures may be consolidating above its upper trendline near 3220.00.  An aggressive sell signal may be obtained upon the decline beneath 3200.00. While gold may only have a 3-4 week window for a decline, it may have the potential to turn into a collapse.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:59 am

BKX may have made its Master Cycle high on Wednesday, on day  253.  Should it not make a new high, the Cycles Model infers a decline that may last to mid-May.  A decline beneath the neckline at 101.00 may induce a decline to 60.00.  Be careful.  Things may get nasty in the next week.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures rose to a weekend high of 19086.00.  The weekly chart shows that the NDX has not yet challenged the long-term uptrend line near 15200.00.  This has sparked a debate whether the NDX is in a bear market or not.  Considering the steepness of the rally since October 2022, gains have been forfeited, but the long-term uptrend is still intact.  That may soon change, as another Cyclical reversal may be due next week.  The challenge for the NDX is whether it may rally above a triple resistance directly overhead.  The 30-month trendline (not shown) lies at 20000.00.  The 10-week (50-day) resistance lies at 20113.36 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies at 20036.00.  The challenge is to overcome these resistances to overcome a possible bear market reversal.  Investors are fatigued after last week’s panic-induced moves in both directions.  This week promises to be calmer, but there is work to do in order to re-establish the long-term uptrend.

SPX futures are higher, having attained a weekend high of 5447.10.  It is nearing the long-term (1987) trendline near 5500.00.  The 50% Fibonacci retracement value is at 4985.00, while the Intermediate resistance is at 5617.62 and falling fast.  Finally, the Cycles Model suggests the SPX may rise to the mid-Cycle resistance at 5770..00.     This may portend a choppy week ahead for the SPX.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5250.00.  Long gamma may begin above 5300.00 whils short gamma lies beneath 5200.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, part of a global risk-on rally, after President Trump paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics over the weekend (even as he clarified on several occasions the pause is only temporary). As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are up 1.5% while Nasdaq 100 contracts climb 1.9% with Mag7 names are all higher led by AAPL (+4.9%); Semis and Cyclicals outperforming, too; Goldman Sachs was 2.7% higher after its first-quarter earnings. The global risk on rally has meant a broadly positive European and Asian session as well. That said, volatility remains front and center among asset classes, with the VIX holding around 33 and similar gauges for bond and currency swings also staying elevated. The dollar fell for a fifth day as Trump warned that a specific levy for electronics will be announced later; DXY remains at the 100 level, aiding international indices in outperforming the S&P.  US bonds retraced some of last week’s losses, pushing 10-year yields down to 4.43% in a bull-steepening move. Commodities are mixed with Energy/Base Metals higher, precious lower, and Ags mixed. Trump is set to give more color on tariffs later today but markets like the delayed implementation at a time when positioning is cleaner. Macro data this week is focused on Retail Sales and Housing data, plus today’s NY Fed Inflation Expectations.”

VIX futures made a new low at 32.22 this morning as it drifts lower.  A possible target for this decline may be the Cycle Top support near 30.45.  While the VIX did not exceed the August 5, 2024 high, it remains more elevated after Monday’s episode.  As of Friday’s close, it hovered about 18 points above its mid-Cycle support at 18.96.  This suggests investors’ expectations may have changed favoring a willingness to hedge against future downdrafts.

The April 16 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma resides between 15.00 and 20.00.  Long gamma may begin at 22.00 and extend to 75.00.

TNX has turned down this morning, with futures reaching 44.20 thus far.  There are two possible retracement values to consider.  The first is the trendline and 50-day Moving Average at 43.46.  The more likely retracement may be the mid-Cycle support and 50% retracement value near 42.18.  This may have a temporary calming effect on equities.  While the PBOC is doing everything in its power to prop up the Chinese equities markets, the Fed refuses to consider doing the same for the US markets.

USD futures have bounced out of Friday’s low and have risen above the Cycle Bottom support/resistance at 99.47.  This may have triggered an aggressive buy signal.  While the sudden decline since April 2 may be attributed to the announced Trump tariffs, the reaction of our trading partners may produce a more realistic view of the effects of the tariffs on the US economy and an end in the 30-month downdraft in the US Dollar.  .

Bitcoin may have made its Master Cycle high on Sunday and is hovering above the 50-day Moving Average at 84455.00 where a sell signal may be made.  Further confirmation of the sell lies beneath the Intermediate support at 83531.15.  Should Bitcoin fall beneath these levels, a decline may ensue through the middle of June.

Gold futures have pulled back to 3209.00 this morning after making a potential Master Cycle high on Friday.  The top trendline of its 1 year trading channel lies at 3200.00.  A decline beneath it may offer an aggressive sell signal.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline to follow until the week of May 5.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:01 am

The Ag Index has given a buy signal, rising above Intermediate support/resistance at 381.89.  A rally above the 50-day Moving Average at 389.74 may bring in more investors  as prices of agricultural commodities remain resilient.   DBA is an ETF that has had a long history in ag commodities.

9:47 am

BKX is at a crossroad today.  Should the Fed inject liquidity into the financial system, BKX may rally to its mid-Cycle resistance at 123.28 in the next week, buying more time above support near 100.00.  The alternative may be a break beneath a potential Head & Shoulders neckline triggering a waterfall event.

ZeroHedge reminds us that banks are not what they pretend to be.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures are consolidating this morning as it digests the prior moves.  Over the next week we may see the NDX moving toward the 61.8% retracement value near 20000.00, which corresponds with the trendline that underscored the rally since October 2022.  The bear market may resume toward the end of April, resulting in a possible panic decline in May.

SPX futures are also consolidating inside yesterday’s wide trading range.  SPX may continue the consolidation for the next week, as overhead resistance appears near 5500.00.   It has already made a 50% retracement near 5500.00.  The next Fibonacci level is the 61.8% retracement at 5654.00.  In addition, the mid-Cycle resistance lies at 5771.00, while the 100-day Moving Average provides a higher possible resistance at 5879.56.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5385.00.  Long gamma may begin above 5400.00 while short gamma may start beneath 5350.00.

VIX futures are also consolidating within yesterday’s trading range.  Should the consolidation continue, VIX may complete its unfinished fractal to a new high in  early May.

The April 16  (monthly) options chain shows Max Pain at 20.50.  Short gamma resides between 15.00 and 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 21.00 and is well populated to 75.00.

TNX futures dipped to an overnight low at 43.82, but surged to the present level at 44.44 this morning.  It is on a buy signal and may surge to the Cycle Top resistance in the next week.  Basis trades are disintegrating, causing massive selling of Treasuries to fill the holes.   Yields are challenging Bessent’s “red line” at 4.45%, sucking liquidity out of the market.  Should the Fed unleash its liquidity, we may see a temporary decline in yields and a sigh of relief in the markets.  Investors are facing “market fatigue” as both stocks and bonds have become unsteady.

ZeroHedge reminds, “Henry Ford once astutely observed that a revolution would occur overnight if people truly understood the banking and monetary system.

That’s because modern banking is an elaborate illusion—one that lulls people into a false sense of security… until it’s too late.

Large banks can fail within hours, and life savings can vanish overnight.

The US banking system is particularly vulnerable.”

Gold has extended its trend to 3255.00 as International politics turn belligerent.  The extension may last to the first week of May.

Crude oil may have made its Master Cycle low a week earlier than anticipated in the Model.  The Model has turned neutral as we await further developments.  The 61.8% retracement of the rally out of the 2020 low is at 53.87.  Should crude extend its decline, it may reach round number support at 50.00.

USD futures reached a morning low of 98.80, putting it in reach of its Master Cycle target.  This extension may be setting up as a false move, so be aware that a move above the Cycle Bottom resistance at 99.53 may produce a very strong rally.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

NDX futures declined to 18558.00 this morning, then a bounce after making nearly a 50% retracement of the decline in two days after a 47-day decline.  Yesterday morning the Cycles Model labeled the day as a high velocity turn date.  So it was.  The NDX rallies 12.02% after the prior day decline of -9% in a rogue Wave B.  Records like this have not been seen since October 2008.  The Cycles Model suggests a rally to the week of April 21.  Overhead resistance lies at 20000.00, a very round number with a 61.8% Fibonacci resistance nearby.  This suggests a choppy finish of the retracement over the next 1-2 weeks.

SPX futures eased back to 5323.00 this morning after a 9.52% rally yesterday.   The short squeeze rallied SPX up to the 1987 trendline (resistance), which provided support on the way down.   The 1987 trendline also happens to be very near the 50% retracement level, which may cause a lot of choppiness over the next 1-2 weeks.  The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trendline at 5863.70, which casts doubt on how much further the SPX may rise.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5450.00.  Long gamma may begin above 5500.00 while short gmma has been cleared to non-existence by yesterday’s short squeeze.

ZeroHedge reports, “The record (notional) bounce-back in global equity markets, which pushed the S&P higher by nearly $5 trilllion in market cap after Trump delayed plans to implement higher reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trade partners, has started to fizzle a bit. S&P 500 futures are down 1.6% after Wall Street logged its best day since 2008 on Wednesday, while Nasdaq 100 contracts drop 1.9% as the market takes some profits and moves to assess Trump’s updates, following a global relief rally. Premarket Mag7 names are under pressure with much of the group down ~2%. Financials, Healthcare and Semis other notable sectors moving lower. Global markets soared in sympathy with the US rally yesterday: Asian equities posted their biggest jump in more than two years and European stocks staging their strongest rally since March 2020, however while the Stoxx 600 surged over 7% at the open it has since pared its advance to less than 5%, as banks and financial services, this session’s outperformers, trim gains. Treasuries reversed an earlier gain, with US 10-year yields first falling 5 bps to 4.28% before reversing and trading unchanged at 4.33%; there is a 30-year bond auction later today which will be closely watched. The mood shift is also evident in currency markets where haven demand has returned, pushing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to the top of the G-10 leader board. Spot gold climbs $25 to $3,108/oz. The Bloomberg Dollar Index falls 0.6%. Oil prices decline, with WTI falling nearly 3% to $60.70 a barrel. Bitcoin gains fade as it trades lower around $81,000. The main event on today’s calendar is the March CPI which may or may not move markets.”

VIX futures bounced to 39.01 this morning as traders took upside profits in equities.  Monday’s high in the VIX appears to be the master Cycle high on day 260.  The decline may continue to the end of the month to complete the new Master Cycle.

TNX futures declined to 42.63 as it continues to retrace its rally with a possible target of the mid-Cycle support at 42.16.  The Cycles Model suggests the retracement may be over in the next 24-36 hours.  Next week may begin with another surge higher as highly leveraged trades unwind/implode.

ZeroHedge remarks, “While the media focuses on surface-level distractions, a deeper financial crisis is accelerating: the collapse of a $1 trillion+ leveraged trade in the U.S. Treasury market.

ITM Trading’s Taylor Kenney breaks down how hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium—leveraged up to 10:1—are being forced to unwind risky trades that once seemed safe. But as volatility spikes and liquidity vanishes, Treasuries are being dumped en masse, sending yields soaring and swap spreads collapsing.”

ZeroHedge (yesterday) reports, “Well, the 10Y auction is in the bag, and after yesterday’s very ugly 3Y, today’s sale was very solid, at least until one looks a bit deeper.

First, looking at the headline numbers,  we find that the high yield jumped from 4.310% in March to 4.435% today, which is remarkable in itself considering the 10Y was 3.87% on Friday! Still, while the yield was clearly high (and could have been even higher had swap spreads not tightened ever so slightly), it stopped through the 4.465% When Issued by a whopping 3bps. This was tied for the 2nd biggest stop through on record, and the one previous time when we saw a 3bps stop through was in Feb 2023, just as the US banking crisis was raging.”

Bitcoin is consolidating beneath Intermediate resistance at 83331.00 this morning after yesterday’s 12% panic surge.    A potential rally he mid-Cycle resistance  may be forthcoming.

Gold futures rallied to a high of 3154.54 this morning.  It has the hallmarks of a retracement rally which should be ending today.  Standby for a decline beneath the Cycle Top at 3068.00 for  a possible sell signal.

Crude oil may have completed a near-61.8% retracement of the rally out of the 2020 low.  If so, be ready for a surge in oil prices going forward.  If so, the Cycle Top at 78.89 may be a near-term target.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures have declined to a morning low at 16607.30.  There is a risk of making a further low this morning, with a potential target near 15000.00.  An emerging crisis in the basis trade, primarily in the Treasury markets, has drained liquidity across the spectrum of equities, especially among the Mag 7, which are highly leveraged.  The Cycles Model suggests today may be a high volatility reversal day with a hair trigger in either direction.  Yesterday 53% of the NASDAQ stocks made a new 52-week low, nearly matching the January 2022 low in the NASDAQ, but not at the level of the March 2020 low.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Like orbiting space debris, every loan that has been collateralized by an illiquid asset is a high-speed projectile with the potential to disable any other part of the system it impacts.

Complex systems can undergo what’s known as phase shifts, where the state of the system changes abruptly. The classic example of this is liquid water turning to ice. Since the mechanisms at work–temperature, saline levels, etc.–is known and measurable, then this phase transition is predictable.

Complex systems with emergent properties are unpredictable, and so their phase transitions catch us off guard. The system looks stable, as the risk of sudden instability resolving in a phase shift is not visible.”

SPX futures made a morning low at 4842.00 thus far.  It also has the possibility of a final wash-out that may not have occurred yesterday.  Two possible supports lie at 4744.00 and 4660.00.  Today is day 267 in the current Master Cycle, a turn date with a potential for high velocity.  The Cycles Model calls for a two week bounce out of the low.  Approximately 33% of the NYSE stocks made new 52-week lows on Monday.

10:00 am  The NYSE Hi-Lo Index gave a preliminary buy signal this morning.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5175.00.  Short gamma offers some support above 5275.00 while short gamma becomes strong beneath 5000.00 with a put wall at 4740.00, 4600.00 and 4500.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “The rollercoaster goes on as stock futures continue to swing wildly, and now we have the extra kicker of the $2 trillion basis trade blowing up and sending bond yields soaring in the US and across most developed economies just as stocks tumble, leading to a complete wipe out of all 60/40 “balanced” portfolios. US futures had slumped as much as 3% overnight amid the ongoing collapse of the basis trade, which we first profiled here, only to reverse and turn briefly green just after 3am ET after China released a White Paper on US trade in which it hinted that it was “willing to communicate with the US” but that initial bounce quickly faded after China also warned it would retaliate… and then it did just that after 7am ET, when Beijing announced it would match Trump’s latest and raise tariffs on US goods to 84%; this quickly sent futures back near sesion lows and down 2%. Pre-market, Mag 7 names were mixed (Tesla +0.39%, Nvidia +0.22%, Apple +1.1%, Meta +1%, Amazon +1%, Alphabet -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%), while healthcare stocks were lower as pharma tariffs are earmarked to be released soon. Meanwhile, as we described first late last night, forced sales resulting from the unwind of the basis trade have slammed the Treasury market, where yields surged over the last few sessions and 2Y to 30Y yields are higher again today. At one point the 10Y was as high as 4.50%; this morning JPM asks a question: “If trade imbalances are zeroed out, do foreign countries need to hold Treasuries?” USD is weaker and commodities are mixed with Base Metals/ Energy lower, goal soaring higher, and Ags mixed. Fed Minutes are released this afternoon with CP| tomorrow.”

VIX futures ran up to 57.95 in this morning’s session.  Should the SPX decline further,  VIX may rise to the August 5 high at 65.73.  A new high may complete the fractal structure that signals completion of the current iteration.

The April 16 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00.  Short gamma rests between 15.00 and 19.00.  Long gamma begins at 2.00 and remains strong to 5.00.

TNX leaped above the 50-day Moving Average at 43.52, taking advantage  today’s trending strength day.  This is another blow to the basis trade,  which may be leveraged between 20X and  56X.  That means at 56X leverage, a 1.8% increase in the price of a 3-year Treasury would wipe out the business.  At 20X leverage, a 5% increase in the price of a 3-year T-note would completely wipe out that business as well.  This is reminiscent of the LTCM blow-up in 1998, where the entire financial system was at risk and had to be bailed out by the Fed and a consortium of banks.  In the meantime, bonds are moving with the velocity of small-caps.  Bond volatility is through the roof.  The Cycles Model infers that the crisis may not be over until April 21.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The “Liberation Day” Tariffs announced at the Rose Garden last week went into effect as of 12:01 am. The tariffs on China have been increased since then, as China already retaliated by increasing their tariffs. I, like many refer to them as the “Liberation Day” tariffs, as that is a talking point that seems to appeal to the President and avoids calling them “reciprocal” which they are not.

There have been some interesting “surprises” overnight.

The 30-year bond briefly breached 5%. The always important 10-year yield rose above 4.5% as yields marched incessantly higher from around 10 pm until just after midnight. They are currently back to 4.37%, about 7 bps higher than where they closed.”

Bitcoin made a test of the low, but did not exceed it.  This leaves open the possibility that Bitcoin may have made its master Cycle low on Tuesday at 74426.00 on day 253 of the Master Cycle.  It may be too early to tell, so the Model remains neutral.

Gold futures made a morning high at 3095.00, challenging the Cycle Top at 3061.95, and making s 67% retracement.  It may be a 1-day surge in strength that appears in the Cycles Model.  The Model calls for a continued decline until early May.

Crude oil continues its decline to a new low at 55.13 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests the panic decline may continue for up to 2 weeks.  The Head & Shoulders formation target appears to be consistent with the model.

ZeroHedge notes, “Oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows early on Wednesday on expectations economies will slump as China, Canada and the European Union push back against tariffs imposed by Trump, but are off the lows ahead of the official inventory and supply data.

“Crude prices slumped to a four-year low with focus squarely on the escalating global trade war and its potential negative impact on growth and demand for energy,” Saxo Bank noted.”

The Shanghai Composite is bumping up against the underside of the neckline of the first Head & Shoulders formation.  The tariff battle rages on with China holding up somewhat better than the US.  Chinese economists are watching this carefully, since that would affect the outcome of the tariff  battle.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline in Chinese equities may last through the month of May, leaving greater losses.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Update: 

After Beijing’s overnight inaction in response to President Trump’s new 104% effective-rate tariff on Chinese goods—and the release of a white paper on trade between the two superpowers—there now appears to be a response from the Chinese side.

Bloomberg reports that China plans to counter Trump’s tariffs with an effective tariff rate of around 84%, escalating the trade war. These countermeasures go into effect on Thursday. ”

The Nikkei Index declined further to a low of 31247.50 today, having fallen through the second Head & Shoulders neckline near 32000.00.  The Nikkei has another 1-2 weeks of decline, leaving a possible support at 25700.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

1:33 pm

SPX may be making its final test of the lows.  Odds are better than even that it will decline beneath 4835.00, possibly to 4744.00.  This is where you may exit shorts and venture to go long.  Good luck and good trading!

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have bounced to 52008.00 thus far this morning, leaving it 15% off the February 19 high.  Yesterday the SPX plummeted to 4835.00, a 21.34% total decline, more severe than a median bear market.  In order to break that (short term) trend, it must rise above yesterday’s high at 5246.67.  However, the Cycles Model infers a deeper low to come, possibly at 4744.00 to 4660.00.  That may complete the Master Cycle low inferred in Path 1.  Despite the strong bounce, there is some (capitulation) selling left to do, especially by retail investors.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5000.00.  Long gamma begins above 5050.00 while short gamma resides beneath 4950.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “After three days of big losses and record-breaking volatility, equity futures are rebounding sharply following somewhat soothing comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent (although how long the relative calm lasts is anyone’s guess, given there’s little clarity about what Trump wants in exchange for cutting tariffs). As of 8:10am, S&P futures are 2.9% higher, a bounce which started around the time we informed readers that Goldman’s head of risk of risk had turned bullish yesterday afternoon; Nasdaq futures are up 2.7%, with all Mag7 names higher with Semis and Cyclicals also outperforming. European and Asian markets are also broadly higher. The VIX is down 10 vols below 40, while Chinese ADRs are mixed. Bond yields have reversed earlier losses and are up 1bp to 4.22% with the USD dropping. Todays’ macro data focus is the Small Business Optimism report which saw sentiment tumble to 97.4 from 100.7 the lowest since the Trump election (Hiring Plans also slumped; these tend to have a lagged but positive correlation to NFP).”

VIX futures have pulled back to a morning low at 39.71 thus far.  Today is day 263 of the current Master Cycle.  The fractal pattern, however, is not complete.  A potential target may be the August 5 high at 65.73.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 22.00.  Short gamma resides between 16.00 to 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 23.00 and now extends to 55.00.  Protection has been bought in volume in the last few days.

TNX continued to rise above the mid-Cycle resistance at 42.13.  This may set the stage for a panic rally in the 10-year yield.  It is now on a buy signal.  A potential target for this rally may be the Cycle Top at 47.88.

Bitcoin has bounced, yesterday, but the fractal construct may not be complete.  The Cycles Model also agrees, suggesting another possible week of decline.  Today is day 253 of the Master Cycle, suggesting the decline may be nearing the end.  A reversal in the SPX may spark a reversal in BTC.

US Dollar futures are in consolidation after a sharp rally out of its Master Cycle low.  While not on a confirmed buy signal, the current action supports buying on the pullback.  The new Master Cycle may continue higher until mid-May.

Gold futures have formed a bounce at yesterday’s low with a possible retest of the Cycle Top at 3058.71 before resuming its decline.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last another month before a meaningful reversal.  A possible target may be the lower trendline near 2800.00.  Should it decline through the trendline, the next support may be near 2500.00.

Crude oil futures have declined precipitously until yesterday’s bounce, which may end today.  The Cycles Model suggests that crude may have another two weeks of decline ahead of it.   While the Head & Shoulders formation may not be in an ideal part of the structure, it has proven its reliability thus far.  The removal of tariffs may be the spark for this price decline.

OikPrice.com reports, “Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s retaliation triggered a sharp drop in oil prices.

• The oilfield services sector is particularly vulnerable, facing reduced demand and profit margins due to falling oil prices, higher import costs, and tighter client budgets.
• With WTI hovering near breakeven levels and OPEC+ unexpectedly ramping up output, analysts foresee consolidation among oilfield service companies as a survival strategy.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:35 am

Volatility is spiking as SPX reached a low of 4835.04, then spiked up 8.5% within a half hour on rumors of a 90-day pause in the tariffs.  It is now back beneath 5000.00 and sinking fast.  It appears that we may see a 10% down day from here.  Capitulation may rule the day.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures traded down to 16332.50 this weekend before a bounce this morning.  Friday’s close was beneath the mid-Cycle support at 17428.00, leaving it vulnerable to a further decline.  An important support to point out is the 1987 trendline near 15000.00.  Should today be another 10% down day, we may see a bounce at that trendline.  However, a failure to hold at 15000.00 today assures the decline may extend to the next support level at   10440.00.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible high velocity reversal by Wednesday.  Commentators are now discussing past bear markets.  There is no sign of capitulation, yet.

SPX futures plummeted to a critical support at 4802.70 this morning, then bounced to 5000.00.   The selling isn’t over yet.  Should SPX find today’s support at 4800.00, this crash may have the same magnitude as the 2008 decline.  Failure to hold today at 4800.00 suggests a much larger magnitude decline may ensue.  This may bring on capitulation, where everyone is headed for the exits.  Further supports today include 4744.00, 4660.00 and 4500.00.  The Cycles Model suggests a high volatility reversal no later than Wednesday.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5300.00.  SPX options are deep in to short gamma.  There are put walls of 5000 contracts or greater starting at 4950.00 and every 50 points down to 4500.00.  The reason for the morning bounce was to enable dealers to short SPX futures as payouts may explode.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are pointing to another day of staggering losses – even as they rise from session lows – as Trump doubled down on sweeping tariffs and as the world continues its flight to safety. S&P futures had plunged as much as 5.5% around the time Europe opened but the stock selling stampede abated as traders boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts amid economic fears just days ahead of Trump’s deadline for reciprocal tariffs to take effect. The rout accelerated late on Sunday after President Trump struck a defiant tone and repeatedly defended the tariff barrage unveiled last week. His remarks underscored those of his top economic officials, who on Sunday doubled down on Trump’s plan, dampening risk sentiment further. Some comments this morning by Jamie Dimon urging a quick resolution to the trade war, helped calm sentiment. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down -2.6% with Nasdaq futures dropping around 3.0% but there is zero liquidity so it’s pretty much impossible to ascribe a snapshot to what is happening. The yield curve is bull steepening, with 5x rate cuts now fully priced in by YE25. USD is flat and commodities are being sold with Energy complex the biggest laggard, though oil is also well off session lows. The VIX is rising again, and is around 50, while oil falls below $60/barrel for the first time since April 2021 on fears that demand will collapse. Ten- and two-year Treasury yields are falling with traders pricing in five Fed cuts this year and a possible emergency move. This is a light macro data week with CPI on Thurs the highlight as earnings kick off later this week, although nobody will care about anything besides tariffs and trade war.”

The VIX index rallied to 60.13 this morning at the European open before calming down somewhat beneath 50.00.  Investors are paying top price for protection that may be needed in the next couple of days.  The next resistance is the August 5 high at 65.73.  Further resistances may include 75.95 and 85.78.  The VIX term structure is showing extreme stress.

The April 9 options chain shows Max Pain at 22.00.  Short gamma remains between 16.00 and 21.00.  Long gamma begins at 24.00 and peaks at 30.00.  This op-ex is catching VIX traders by surprise.

TNX reversed out of its Master Cycle low on Friday and continues its climb toward the mid-Cycle resistance at 42.12.  TNX only has two weeks in the new Master Cycle.  However, it may prove to be a powerful rally, despite the short duration.

Bitcoin extended its decline beneath the March low.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may extend for another week.  Should the strength of the decline continue, bitcoin may test the August 5 low near 48200.00.