Author Archives: tonych

11:21 am NDX has made its reversal after the bounce fell short of the 61.8% retracement at 16056.00 and the 50-day Moving Average at 16087.68.  The opportunity to short the NDX is now.  SPX will follow.   10:05 am BKX … Continue reading →

8:05 am Good Morning! NDX futures hit an overnight high of 15908.80, just above the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 15886.35.  While I had thought that the 22-month trendline might be the stopper for this rally, and the retracement appeared … Continue reading →

7:30 am NDX futures continued to rise after closing but peaked at 15745.90 at 5:30 pm as options were settled.  The Max Pain zone for Wednesday is 15650.00 while gamma turns positive at 15700.00.  However, at its peak retracement, NDX … Continue reading →

4:00 pm Here’s a “what if” to consider.  What if Wave [3] of the VIX has the same dimensions as Wave [1]?  If so, we could use the same multiplier for the entire structure (5 Waves).  Currently Wave 1 of … Continue reading →

3:15 pm SPX is trading flat at or beneath 4700.00 despite efforts to boost equities.  It’s time to short this market.  I cannot see it recovering on Monday after such a negative options expiration.  Be prepared for increased volatility. The … Continue reading →

10:25 am NDX appears to have bounced off its 22-month trendline and may be heading higher.  The new target, should it run to the top again, is 16700.00 where Wave C equals Wave A.  However, it will have some serious … Continue reading →

2:50 pm TNX has broken above its straight line resistance at 16.93 and appears to be challenging Cycle Top resistance at 17.39.  It has been on a buy signal (UST sell signal) since it crossed above the 50-day Moving Average.  … Continue reading →

3:45 pm Today is day 258 of the Banking Index, our liquidity proxy.  Liquidity has the most impact on the NDX, since earnings are secondary, if nonexistent in most tech companies.  A reversal may soon be upon the banks and … Continue reading →

8:15 am Good Morning! SPX futures are approaching 4800.00 again after hitting 4808.93 on Thursday. During the Christmas Break I had a chance to refine the Model and ultimate outcome.  It appears that the SPX formed a Triangle that allowed … Continue reading →

4:00 pm   The Christmas rally may be over.  None of the indices made new all-time highs today, despite the all-out effort to do so.  Next week is likely to be profit-taking.  I regret to say I will be absent … Continue reading →