Author Archives: tonych

12:15 pm VIX has stretched its Master Cycle to 273 days, an unusually long stretch.  However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as Wave (c) reaches equality with (a) at 18.51.  The stretch may be over, … Continue reading →

2:12 pm I reported last week that the March 17 low in GKX may have been ins Master Cycle low on day 251.  Today is day 262 and no new lows have been made.  It appears that the mid-Cycle support … Continue reading →

7:45 am Good Morning! I am off to an early start as I am going steelhead fishing with my son and grandson on the Pere Marquette river.  The fish are running in high water and we expect snow over the … Continue reading →

8:30 am Good Morning! SPX futures are challenging the mid-Cycle support at 4492.00 this morning, giving the first hint of a reversal.  The mid-Cycle line offers an aggressive sell signal.  Today’s expiring options are positive above 4475.00 and turn negative … Continue reading →

2:57 pm Today is day 246 of the current Master Cycle.  This may be an early Master Cycle top for three reasons; First, the VIX has made a Master Cycle low today and the NYSE Hi-Lo Index (a leading indicator) … Continue reading →

10:00 am SPX may have peaked with a 17.2 market day rally from the February 24 low.  I had mentioned on Friday that it was day 17, but did not know whether it would extend to the full Cyclical complement … Continue reading →

1:47 pm SPX is approaching its 50-day Moving Average at 4444.31.  It may overshoot, but the rally is very extended.  Prepare to go short.  Pick your spot and hang on! ZeroHedge comments, “In late 2021 we noted a gaping divergence … Continue reading →

8:30 am The Shanghai Composite Index rallied to 3260.17 before easing back, closing the gap.  With six weeks to go to the next Master Cycle Pivot, there is little or no chance of recovery.  While the bounce looks impressive, it … Continue reading →

1:15 pm   12:38 pm SPX has paused beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at4378.65 that has stopped the last two Cycle tops.  The rally appears complete, but may be subject to a whipsaw at the FOMC announcement.  There really is no … Continue reading →

1:48 pm Exactly 8.6 market days have elapsed from the March 3 high at 4416.78.  I had originally considered this to be a low, but it turns out to be the final bounce before the decline beneath the Lip/Neckline at … Continue reading →