September 7, 2022

12:16 pm

VIX has been remarkably calm, but that may be about to change.  The Cycles Model suggests a spike in volatility beginning tomorrow and extending through (and possibly beyond) monthly options expiration, possibly peaking the week after.  Keep an eye on the VIX starting today for a move to a new high.  The follow-through may be extraordinary.  Remember, the crisis is already underway in Europe, so we may look there for advance notice affecting us.  In addition, VIX dealers are aware that long gamma intensifies at 27.00, adding pressure to avoid that level.

ZeroHedge remarks, “While European stocks have sold off since the middle of August, one thing has been missing: market anxiety in the form of a spike in volatility indicators.

The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index, also known as the V2X, remains below levels seen earlier this year, and given that bull market rallies typically follow a period of extreme stress, that may be a worrying sign for stock bulls. It’s also a pointer toward hedging opportunities as portfolio protection remains relatively cheap.

According to Bank of America analysts including Riddhi Prasad, there’s value in owning equity volatility given the “disconnect” with credit spreads that have widened to reflect the growing risk of an energy crunch, inflation and rising interest rates driving economies into recession.”


12:01 pm

SPX is approaching a 50% retracement of Friday’s decline at 3952.00.  In addition, the hourly Cycle may be set to turn as well.  Neither target is a guarantee, just an indication of the conditions involved in the Cycles.  If so, an extended panic cycle may ensue, stretching through Monday, at a minimum.


10:40 am

BKX is retesting the neckline of a small Head & Shoulders formation.  It may seem innocuous, but the outcome may be a breakdown beneath a longer-standing Head & Shoulders formation with a potential loss of over 50%.  The Current Master Cycle extends to the end of this month, but another MC that extends to mid-November appears right behind it.  We may see a reversal beneath yesterday’s new low at 102.90 in the immediate timeframe.


8:15 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures retraced 64% of yesterday’s decline after breaking through the neckline at 12013.00.  The Head & Shoulders formation may have been triggered with that and we should look for a resumption of the decline this morning.

Today’s op-ex shows short gamma begins at 12000.00, thus the close above it yesterday.  An additional short gamma cluster at 11900.00 may intensify the decline.  QQQ (closing price: 293.05) begins short gamma right at 293.00 with Max Pain at 297.00.  A stronger cluster of puts reside at 289.00 which may intensify the decline.

This morning ZeroHedge reports, “US equities and US Treasury bond prices tumbled this morning following a report by the new Fed whisperer himself – WSJ’s Nick Timiraos – suggesting The Fed’s inflation-fighting stance means 75bps is very much on the table for September’s FOMC meeting. While careful not to leak any inside scoop, the mere fact that Timiraos is reporting this story – after his CPI/75bps move earlier in the year is enough to spook traders.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s public pledge to reduce inflation even if it increases unemployment appears to have put the central bank on a path to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point rather than 0.50 point this month.”


SPX futures dipped to 3883.80, a possible new low in the overnight market before retracing 64%.  It remains beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 3903.00 after triggering it yesterday.  The panic decline is most likely to start here.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 3905.00, while short gamma begins at 3900.00.  Short gamma intensifies at 3875.00 and 3850.00, while long gamma doesn’t kick in until 3970.00.  SPX is on a very short leash this morning with a lot of potential pain in a decline.

ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures swung in illiquid overnight trading, first sliding below the key 3,900 level after the Japan open, only to recover all losses after Europe opened, with the dollar storming to new record highs and steamrolling all FX competitors as traders braced for a slew of hawkish Fed speakers to assess the path of monetary policy and its impact on the economy. S&P 500 futures edged 0.1% higher at 7:15 a.m. in New York after the underlying benchmark fell six out of the last seven sessions, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, as both European and Asian market slumped. The Bloomberg Dollar index hit a new record high as the Yen plunge below 144 for the first time since 1998 and the Chinese yuan flirted with the key 7.00 level. Bitcoin recovered modestly after tumbling to new 2022 lows and oil erased a decline after Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined that his country won’t supply oil and fuel if price caps on the country’s exports are introduced..”



VIX futures consolidated between 26.50 and 27.15 this morning.  The Wave/Cycle structure allows a minimum rally up to the Cycle Top resistance at 34.16, but a more likely target is the neckline at 40.00.  The Cycles Model suggests a probable Master Cycle high at or after September monthly options expiration September 14/21.

In today’s (weekly) op-ex, long gamma starts at 23.00 and intensifies at 27.00 with 4245 call contracts, explaining yesterday’s close beneath it.  VIX is also on a tight leash and long gamma is heavy all the way to 50.00.  Once gamma (runaway) trains start rolling, they may be very hard to stop.


USD futures ran up to a new high at 110.78 this morning.  US centric analysis calls for the USD to decline, while a look at the rest of the world suggests the USD is not the worst house in the slum.  The Cycles Model calls for the USD to continue rising through the end of September.  The USD may be on steroids this week as trending strength has come in a triple dose.


TNX may have begun its Master Cycle reversal after having stretched 277 days in the prior Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle may stretch to mid-November, a 70-day Cycle with a minimum target at the mid-Cycle support at 24.02.  However, the outer limit on this Cycle may be as low as the Cycle Bottom at 13.44, with a median support at 16.71.  A safe estimate for this length of Cycle may be a 50% decline to  the Weekly mid-Cycle support at 16.71 or the long-standing Head & Shoulders neckline near 16.50.  The main source of liquidity for UST appears to be the flow from equities, both in the US and overseas.

The above analysis may seem counter-intuitive, but more likely than not, as the Cycles and EW structure appear ready for the reversal.  The Bank of Canada (as usual, behind the 8-ball) has likely called the top for Treasury rates for the current Cycle.


UST is the inverse of TNX and shows the Master Cycle low on September 1.  The Cycles Model also shows a rally to continue through the end of October or mid-November.  The minimum target for this rally is mid-Cycle resistance at 122.19, but it also may extend to the Cycle Top resistance at 131.52, should it go the full distance.  This makes a compelling case for TLT over the next two months for the more conservative investors.


WTIC futures plummeted to 82.5, confirming our indications of a potential breakdown.  The Cycles Model suggests this breakdown may last through the end of October with a potential initial target being the Broadening Wedge trendline at 65.00.  Of course, that is just Wave 3 of a 5-wave decline.  Crude may decline below 50.00 by the end of the year as demand destruction takes place in a slowing economy.  Unfortunately, the bailout in Europe may also fail, bringing Brent Crude prices lower, as well.  Germany remains skeptical about a natural gas price cap.

ZeroHedge observes, “Oil is tumbling this morning with Brent slumping below $90 to the lowest since February and WTI dumping below $84 for the first time since January…

… as oil prices in the highest odds of any asset class as Goldman first pointed out last week.

The drop has obviously undone all the earlier gains after Russian President Vladimir Putin underlined that his country won’t supply oil and fuel if price caps on the country’s exports are introduced, which briefly pushed oil higher. Putin’s comments follow the G7 most industrialized countries agreeing to back an oil price cap for global purchases of Russian oil. It remains unclear how many countries have signed up to put limits on Russia.

The renewed weakness – which according to Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd Smith – is driven by a nasty combination of demand concerns plus the dollar’s jump to a record – will test OPEC+’s appetite for further action.”


Gold futures made a new low at 17.02 in the overnight exchanges.  This is in line with the Cycles Model calling for a sustained decline through September monthly options expiration on the 16th.  Trending strength (lower) is coming on strong today and may extend into the week beyond op-ex.  The likely scenario may be a breakdown beneath the lower Cup with Handle formation at 1678.00.

DailyFX reports, “Gold extended its decline in early European trade before a bounce saw it push above the key $1700 level. Yesterday we had a better-than-expected US Headline ISM Services PMI which added to an already bullish dollar driving the US dollar index to a new two-decade top above 110.50. The Asian session saw Chinese data reveal a slowdown in exports and imports for the month according to China’s General Administration of Customs. This coupled with China’s covid-related woes continues to pose a threat to growth as investors fear a downturn in demand with China one of the largest gold importers in the world.”




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