Author Archives: tonych

8:00 am Good Morning! SPX futures have made a morning low at 4445.70 thus far, testing short-term support at 4444.00 (not shown on the daily chart).  It is on a sell signal with the next nearest visible support being the … Continue reading →

1:55 pm VIX has exceeded it 50-day Moving Average at 14.79, giving a confirmed buy signal.  This new Cycle may last into October.  Plan accordingly.     10:48 am SPX declined beneath its 50-day Moving Average, producing a confirmed sell … Continue reading →

8:10 am Good Morning! SPX futures consolidated between 4516.10 and 4495.10 over the holiday weekend, exceeding the Thursday and Friday lows.  It has completed a 5-week shallow Master Cycle, leaving a Head & Shoulders formation to inform us as to … Continue reading →

10:10 am BKX, our liquidity proxy, is approaching the 50-day Moving Average at 83.50 on day 256 (average 258 days) of the Master Cycle.  While the Cycle may extend to early next week, it may be foolish to expect it … Continue reading →

7:45 am Good Morning! NDX futures rose to 15491.20 thus far, in a probable attempt to reach 15500.00. (round number resistance and a short gamma wall).  This makes a 67% retracement of the July decline.  The current top-to-top Cycle has … Continue reading →

7:45 am Good Morning! NDX may have closed out its Master Cycle on day 259 above the 50-day and Intermediate resistance at 15301.76.  It has completed a 60.6% (near Fibonacci) retracement and may be ready to resume its decline.  With … Continue reading →

12:11 pm One of the conditions for the Master Cycle was to end at a high above the 50-day Moving Average at 4459.51.  That was accomplished this morning with a high at 4485.50, short of Intermediate resistance at 4488.49.  A … Continue reading →

7:30 am Good Morning! NDX futures rose to 14991.80 over the weekend session.  The retracement may be over, or nearly so, and the decline through the neckline near 14450.00 may be imminent.  Today is day 258 of the Master Cycle.  … Continue reading →

9:52 am The Ag Index made an early Master Cycle low on August 15.  It did not make the expected 61.8% retracement at 387.40.  Nonetheless, it is on an aggressive buy signal with the reversal from the cycle Bottom at … Continue reading →

9:38 am BKX continues its bounce from yesterday’s low.  There is no particular target for this bounce, as it may remain weak.  It may resume its decline shortly with a potential Master Cycle low in the first week of September. … Continue reading →