April 1, 2024

10:18 am

BKX may be reversing from its retracement high on Thursday.  It has declined beneath its Cycle Top support at 104.37 creating a possible aggressive sell signal on day 249 of the Master Cycle.  The Wave structure is complete, leaving numerous other indications of an early Master Cycle high.  Tell me if I am wrong, but I see no liquidity report on banks/moneymarkets for last week.

 

8:30 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures did not make a new high over the weekend, reaching 18392.60, leaving the Master Cycle high  on Thursday, March 21.  NDX has slipped beneath its Cycle Top resistance, leaving a potential aggressive sell signal.  The next support levels are Intermediate support and the Diagonal trendline at 18000.00, where the sell signal is confirmed.  The 50-day Moving Average is at 17794.74 where many traders sell/go short.  Last week ends the 18 out of 22 weekly closes at all-time highs.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 18275.00.  Long gamma may begin at 18300.00 while short gamma starts at 18250.00.

 

SPX futures continued making a new all-time high over the weekend, but have pulled back from the weekend surge to 5275.90.  There may be a pause near the ATH today.  However, should we see a reversal today the decline may gather strength very quickly.  The Diagonal trendline is at 5200.00 with a possible aggressive sell signal.  Confirmation lies beneath Intermediate support at 5114.58.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5245.00.  Long gamma begins at 5260.00 while short gamma may start at 5230.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures extend their record-breaking meltup following the long weekend (which was to be expected with hedge funds piling into shorts last week, hoping for a reversal), with most European markets still closed and Asian stocks closing lower. As of 7:30am, S&P futures were 0.3% higher, but trading near session lows; Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%. Bond yields are 1-3bp higher with the USD unchanged from its Friday close. Commodities are mixed: oil down and metals are mostly higher this morning as China PMIs beat expectations. While bitcoin suffered one of its trademark futures slamdowns overnight to push it back below $70K despite relentless ETF inflows, gold was on a tear and rose 1.6% to hit a new all time high of $2,265 before easing back. after upbeat China factory data added to Friday’s relatively benign US core PCE figures. This week, keep an eye on Payrolls, ISMs, and Fedspeak (8x this week), and today, we get the Mfg ISM at 10am ET where consensus expects a 48.3 print vs. 47.8 prior.”

 

 

VIX futures may be testing the 50-day Moving Average at 13.78 this morning.  A close above it may offer a buy signal for the VIX.  The Cycles Model shows VIX trending higher, with strength appearing later this week.

Wednesday’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 14.00.  Short gamma begins and ends at 13.00, whils long gamma starts at 15.00 and strengthens to 18.00.

 

TNX is rising, and appears to be testing the mid-Cycle resistance at 42.59.  A breakout above that level confirms the uptrend and buy signal.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue through mid-April with 4 of 6 indicators showing strength.  A possible target may be the Cycle Top resistance at 48.26.

Mish reports, “The BEA reports real income is down, but personal spending jumped anyway. Inflation data is mostly as expected, but much higher than the Fed would like to see.

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2024

Nothing about the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for February 2024 suggests the Fed should cut interest rates at its next meeting.”

 

USD futures are consolidating today after Friday’s possible Master Cycle high.  If correct, the new Master Cycle may retest support at 103.70.  However, there may be up to a week left of the (old) Master Cycle.  A new high may still be in the making.

 

Gold futures made a new all-time high over the weekend at 2286.35, then pulled back.  We may be seeing a Master Cycle being completed, or nearly so.  Stand by for confirmation of a reversal.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Gold – on the run

Gold continues the brutal squeeze move. Note we are getting closer to the upper channel of the huge trend channel and RSI is reaching overbought levels.”

 

 

 

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