The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
10:45 am
SPX may have issued a sell signal this morning. Initial support may be had at 7500.00. Should it remain beneath the trendline, tomorrow may be a panic down day. Short leverage by hedge funds is at a 5-year high, a set-up for a possible reversal soon.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 7669.90, potentially breaking through the 5-month diagonal trendline near 7675.00. Shjould it open beneath the trendline it may offer a sell signal. A likely target for this decline may be the mid-Cycle suport at 7313.04. It may go lower. Should it do so, Friday may bring a panic decline, followed by several limit down days through early November.
NDX futures have fallen to 29232.00 this morning, as it aproaches the bottom of its 5-month trading range. Should it break down beneath its mid-Cycle support at 27982.98, it may continue to the long-term channel trendline near 26500.00. The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic session on Friday. .
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower as the AI trade discovered that there is no right answer on capex…”
The pre-market VIX rose to 18.58 this morning, reintroducing the buy signal. While the Cycles Model doesn’t indicate unusual activity, the VIX is naturally volatile as seen this morning. There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that suggests a breakout of the 17-month Triangle formation. While investors are still buying puts and selling calls, a rude awakening may ensue.
The US 10-year Bond Yield plummeted this morning, approaching its Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00. It may challenge the 52-day Moving Average, as the declining fractal may not be complete. However, once the target is reached, it may be due for a violent reversal as trending strength returns next week.
ZeroHedge observes, “The week’s lone coupon auction took place at 1pm and amid speculation of fireworks at the next Treasury Refunding Announcement in two weeks, when Citi is confident Bessent could announce the end of 20Y auction, it could very well be one of the last sales of 20Y paper for the US.
11: am
The US Dollar slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline, but rallied back above it. This action formed a Trading Cycle low. Trading Cycles are lesser Cycles that may provide importatn reversal points within the Master Cycle. In this case, the Master Cyclle may resume its uoptrend to the end of November. Note that the Head & Shoulders formation may now be engaged.
The Euro has declined back beneath its Cycle Bottom support at 112.19. A sell signal may be obtained should it remain beneath that level.
Crude oil has been in consolidation for the past week. It may be able to break out of the sideways formation but remain beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders until the end of the month.
Gold has established a new low, reiterating its sell signal. The current Master Cycle may last to mid-December, allowing gold to decline beneath what may be a new Head & Shoulders neckline. More on that later.
The Agriculture Index has tested yesterday’s low and it held. Once the base has ben firmly established, confidence may come back and with it, trending strength in the next week. The Head & Shoulders necklne may be in sight as it may cross over in November.
Bitcoin has been chopping around the trendline at 82200.00 for over two weeks as it winds up its Master Cycle. Ther may be some strength over the weekend to bolster its attempt to reach the Cycle Top at 89625.00. However, there are no assurances it will make it as the Master Cycle is nearly spent.