The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
8:20 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures made a new low at 7634.30 this morning. but hasn’t declined beneath the October 16 low at 7631.77. Should it not go lower, the uptrend remains intact. There are several levels of retracement that leave room for a resumption of the rally. The first is 7500.00. The next may be near 7300.00, where the possibility of a further decline arises. The Cycles Model suggests that, should the SPX remain above 7631.77, the certainty of the rally resuming rises signifivantly as Trending Strength may arrive by Monday. The reason is that two-thirds of the SPX companies advanced yesterday while the index declined. The rotation is terrific as AI loses favor to the blue chips.
NDX futures declined to 28844.00,, remaining above the September 16 low at 28753.00. This is not a sign of a bear market, despite the 8% decline from its all-time high. The AI momentum trade has been a bust, losing all its YTD gains.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower, erasing a modest overnight bounce, as markets scramble after Thursday’s violent AI liquidation while oil rises again…”
The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath yesterday’s high at 20.31. The stall is noteworthy as it reintroduces the concept of a Triangle Tail formation. The Cycles Model reports unusual calm in the VIX for the next three weeks.
The US 10-year Bond Yield may have found some support at the 52-dy Mocing Average at 49.71 this morning. However, the Fractal Model suggests another push lower may be in order as investors may seek a “safe haven” from declining stocks.
The US Dollar languishes just beneath the neckline at 101.80 this morning. The Cycles Model suggests. Both the Cycles Model and the Fractal Model suggest another possible week of sideways-to-lower movement. The USD may make a comeback at the turn of the month. The current Master Cycle may persist to the end of November.
The Euro has declined to 111.85 this morning, beneath the Cyclle Bottom at 112.19. Thsi offers a sell signal for the Euro. Volatility may pick up next week, adding momentum to the decline. The Cycles Model implies the decline may continue to the end of November.
Crude Oil advanced to 101.96 this morning, on its way to test the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 106.75. The indication of a Master Cycle high at 101.90 may be in error,as WTI has exceeded it today, within the parametes of the existing Master Cycle. If so, the price of oil may halt at the neckline for a time, delaying the engagement of the head & Shoulders formation until later this year.
Gold has declined to 39..86 this morning, testing the trendline near 3950.00. The strongest likelihood is that gold may be setting up for a bounce at the trendline. However, should it decline beneath it, a re-evaluation may be necessary. Gold has cracked the 4000.00 “line in the sand” but true support may lie beneath it. Resolution may come quickly.
The Agriculture Index may be testing Wednesday’s Master Cycle low. While there remains a short window for a lower Cycle terminus, the existing MC has made its intended target in the appropriate time. Look for Trending Strength to rteturn next week as it resumes the uptrend to the end of November.
Bitcoin is challenging the 52-day Moving Average at 81701.00 this morning. There is still a short window for Bitcoin to establish the Master Cycle terminus. In fact, it may have made a low on October 15 at 79762.00. However, there has been no clear signal since then. Trending Strength may reappear next week, giving a clearer direction of the Cycle.