The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
9:15am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7661.30 this morningafter reaching a low on Friday of 7612.07. The Master Cycle may be complete, allowing the SPX to rise. A rally above the 52-day Moving Average at 7702.00 allows a buy signal. The decline took only 3 days and may be too shallow to count as a bear market, despite the turmoil under the hood. The Cycles Model may allow the uptrend to continue to mid-December.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as oil slides on hopes that a regional delegation in Tehran can breathe some life into US-Iran peace talks, and as Meta jumps after finally unveiling how it plans to pay for its AI capex binge…”
The VIX declined to 18.69, on its way to mid-Cycle support at at 18.35. Beneath that a sell signal may be generated. The Cycles Model sugests an approximate 4-week decline that may venture beneath the Triangle trendline again.
The US 10-year Bond Yield tested the neckline at 50.00 this morning, but was pushed back. The current Master Cycle is entering its reversal window with the downside fractal possibly incomplete. I had originallybeen viewing the 50-day Moving Average at 49.77, but TNX has declined beneath it. The next suport level may be the rising trendline near 48.30. Volatility may be rising by mid-week, possibly assisting the completion of this decline. Sbusequent volatility may also push TNX back above the Head & Shoulders neckline.
The US Dollar has risen above its Head & Shoulders neckline which may activate that formation. This may be an early warning for dollar-sensitive indices.
The Euro has dclined further from its Cycle Bottom at 112.11 this morning. This a;ction may ratify the sell signal. The Cycles Model indicate rising strength (of the decline) developing through this week and possibly extending to the end of November.
Crude oil is consolidating beneath Friday’s high. Should it go higher, especially above the neckline, the Master Cycle may fully engage that formation. Otherwise, WTI may pull back to one of its nearby supports. Trending Strength may return later this week.
Gold bounced from its trendline and Master Cycle low at 3975.65. The decline may be complete and a possible new trend developing. However, the nearest confirmaton of a buy signal may be the Intermediate resistance at 4204.07. Sentiment is bearish, suggesting the potential for a comeback.
ZeroHedge comments, “Markets have been volatile over the last several weeks, with selling pressure spreading across tech stocks and speculative assets. Gold and miners have been no exception, with the latter getting caught up in the broader liquidation and suffering significant selling pressure of their own.”
The Agriculture Index fell even beyond the anticipated low. The Master Cycle may have had a final surprise as it tests the mid-Cycle support at 393.42. There may be a final probe to mid-Cycle suport. However, the fractal may be complete as is.
Bitcoin appears to have made its Master Cycle low on Saturday. Its market operates 24/7. Should that be the case, we may see an imminent reversal. The 52-day Moving Average lies at 81754.00. A rise above that level may offer a buy signal, to be confirmed at a rally above the trendline at 8/2200.00.