The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose above the 52-day Moving Average at 7460.00 to 7490.40 this morning, influenced by bounces in the Japanese and Korean markets.  This action may constitute a double reversal from a high to a low in 2 days within the Master Cycle turn phase.  Should it follow through to the upside, it may allow the SPX to reach 7700.00 by early September.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures are higher led by Tech after a strong bounce in chip stocks in Japan (memory stock Kioxia traded limit up after trading limit down on Friday and Monday was a holiday) and Korea, as evidence mounts that Momentum / Semis pullback have bottomed, with supportive price action elsewhere in Asia and Europe, though the JPM EU Trading Desk is not yet seeing follow-through buying in Semis.”

US Tech futures reached 29026.70 thus far this morning.  At 29200.00 the NDX may re-enter the Triangle formation with the 52-day Moving Average at 29501.00. Above that, a clear buy signal awaits.  The Cycles Model infers a renewed uptrend until early September.  A rally to 36000.00 is  possible.

The premarket VIX eclined to test the 52-day Moving Average at 17.36.   A failure at the mid-Cycle resistance may compel the VIX to decline again, beneath the lower Triangle trendline.  While the VIX expected  seasonal upswing approaches in August, it may do just the opposite.  Individual stocks have become more volatile, but collectivly VIX remains calm.  The Cycles Model suggests a new low in September.

The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 46.10 this morning, testing the Cycle Top resistance at 46.21.  It may begin to lose momentum as resistance may prevent a further probe higher.  The Cycles Model anticipates falling yields through the month of August as bonds capture a flood of liquidity originating in the overseas markets.

The US Dollar has risen above the Heaad & Shoulders neckline at 100.80 this morning.   Should it go higher, the Cycle Top resistance at 101.38 may be overcome.  Such a move anticipate the head & Shoulders target may be sought out by mid-August.  The weekly chart suggests a higher target, at 108.00.

Bitcoin surged higher, finally showing trending strength as it emerges above the 52-day Moving average at 63457.00.  It is on a buy signal for the next couple of weeks as it is showered with liquidity.  The mid-Cycle resistance at 71190.00 appears to be a likely target.

Crude oil is rising to test the 52-day Moving average at 85.13 this morning.  Should it succeed,   it may bring even more liquidity to the table as shorts get squeezed.   Round number resistance levels at 90.00 and 100.00 may give the rally pause, but the next clear target iis the Cycle Top at 109.79.  The rally may continue until mid-August.

Gold rose from round number support at 4000.00 in a bounce that may take it to the upper trading channel trendline and Intermediate resistance at 4155.29.  Once accomplished, the decline may resume its trending capacity as far as the lower trendeline, near 3600.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:16 am

BKX may be testing its Cycle Top support at 187.38 thismorning.  A decline beneath it suggests a possible aggressive sell signal.  An aggressive sell signal indicates a lightening of longs may be prudent.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have risen to 7505.70 this morning after closing above the 52-day Moving Average on Friday.  Should it rise above 7550.00, SPX may continue its rally to 7650.00-7700.00, making a new all-time high.  The Cycles Model indicates that today may be a day of strength for equities, causing the Master Cycle to extend higher.  However, should it fail, it may decline bneath the 52-day Moving Average, creating a sell signal.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures rebound from Friday’s selling, indicating a firmer start to the week with S&P futures rising 0.5% at 8.00am ET, and Nasdaq futures up 1% after a sluggish start to the session, after Iran’s Foreign  Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US.”

The NDX has kept its well-defined Triangle formation.  This morning’s NDX futures have risen to 28929.60, still beneath the Triangle trendline at 29000.00 and the 52-day Moving Average at 29482.76.  A rally above those levels may create conditions for a blow-off top in the NDX over the next week.  The tail in the Triangle formation may have crfeated signs of panic.  However, the market often gives misdirection at critical turning points.

The premarket VIX declined to a morning low at 17.77, remaining above the 52-day Moving Average at 17.36.  Should it decline beneath it, the VIX may form a tail going beneath the trendline toward a target near 13.75.

The US 10-year Bond Yield bounced back this morning after Friday’s losses.  It may retest the Cycle Top at 46.16, causing consternation among the bond longs.  However, the Cycles Model indicates a stronger propensity toward lower yields through the month of August.

The USD is hovering near the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation and has bounced from Intermediate support again.  The Cycles Model suggests today may be a day of strength.  Should it have an effect, we may see the USD rise to, or above, the Cycle Top resistance at 101.36.  The head & Shoulders formation may still be active.

Bitcoin may have found support at the 52-day Moving Average at 63585.00 this morning, putting a positive slant on its trajectory.  Should it rise above its prior high at 65545.00, it may proceed toward its mid-Cycle resistance at 71341.00 over the next three weeks.

Crude oil tested the 52-day Moving Average at 85.47 thuis morning before easing back.  The Cycles Model indicates strength in the rally today, suggesting WTI may go higher.  Alternatively, should WTI decline beneath Intermediate support at 79.14, it may test the mid-Cycle support at 75.83 before resuming its uptrend.

Gold appears hesitant above its June 30 low.  The hesitancy, coupled with a surge in strength, may propel gold toward its trading channel trendline and Intermediate resistance at 4168.18 today.  However, another week of decline may also be possible.  The Cycle Bottom at 3764.44 remains as the minimum target for this decline.  An extension may also be made toward the lower channel trendline near 3600.00.  Central banks appear to be accumulating gold while retail investors may be sellers.  The Cycles Model suggests the next week may be critical.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures probed to 7587.80 in the overnight market, but dropped back down to 7549.70 this morning.  Its positioning remains neutral as it remains above Intermediate support at 7481.44, a critical floor.  Should it go higher, the SPX may rise toward 7650.00, a new all-time high.  However, the outcome is not certain.  A decline beneath 7500.00 puts us on full alert to a change in trend.  The Cycles Model infers that the new Master Cycle may decline to mid-September.  Meanwhile, corporate insiders are reducing their exposure to the market.

ZeroHedge reports, “A surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot (which is now at the top of the Frontend code benchmark on Arena) rumbled through global markets, sending chip stocks reeling, as queasiness returned about the industry’s unprecedented spending spree (something we have been warning about for the past year).”

The premarket VIX has risen to mid-Cycle resistance at 18.69 thus far, offering a buy signal above the 52-day Moving Average.  The decline beneath 15.00, the estimated level of the lower Triangle trendline, may have signaled the completion of the Triangle formation.  There may be an outside chance of a “tail” being formed in the next few days, however, all of the necessary item have been completed.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has gapped down this morning, confirming the initial sell signal made at the Cycle Top at 46.13.  Further confirmation may be made beneath the next critical support at 44.92.  The decline may be gathering momentum, with more strength apparing early next week.  The Cycles Model indicates the decline may proceed to early September wwith a potential target near the Cycle Bottom at 39.20.

The  US Dollar is consolidating between the Intermediate support at 100.61 and the neckline at 100.80 this morning.  The fractal structure indicates a possible decline to the 52-day Moving Averages at 100.00.  The Cycles Model offers up to 3 weeks to accomplish this, suggesting the decline may go lower.  Should it do so, the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may be transferred to  the June 24 high at 101.80.

Bitcoin may be in decline toits next support level at 61500.00.  A breakdown may proppel BTC toward its Cycle Bottom at 65200.00.  The Cycles Model indicates there may be 2-3 weeks in the upcoming decline.  Multiple panic down days may develop toward the end of the month.

Crude oil resumed its rally, bouncing from Intermediate support at 79.26, as it probes toward the 52-day Moving Average at 85.92 this morning.  A burst of strength may help it accomplish that goal by early next week.  A brief respite may follow.

Gold continued to make new lows this morning, but hasn’t reached its target.  While aving reache the average time needed for the Master Cycle, it must be met with the appropriate price, as well.  In this case, the minimum price target happens to be the Cycle Bottom at 3765.82.  The Cycles Model shows rising volatility next week, which may propel the decline further.

The Ag Index is declining with rising volatility as it may seeks to retrace the latest rally from the bottom of its trading channel.  The Cycles Model allows up to three weeks for the proposed decline.

ZeroHedge notes, “Despite our view that beef prices will remain elevated this year amid the smallest US cattle herd size in more than 60 years and mounting concerns over New World screwworm detections in Texas, live cattle futures in Chicago have tumbled this month as speculative traders unwind bullish bets.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good morning!

SPX futures edged higher, to 7587.80 in the overnight session.  While the rally may have fulfilled the time element of the Master Cycle, the fractal structure allows an extension higher, as bank repo positions expand.  Should it do so, a blow-off top may be achieved, targeting possible resistance at 7650.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower, erasing much of yesterday’s gain with both Nasdaq and Rusell lagging SPX, following a continued rollercoaster in Korea where stocks tumbled after the BOK hired rates for the first time in 3 years.”

ZeroHedge comments, “The sky-high valuations of space and AI firms today are similar to that of internet ventures before 2000. Herd instinct is leading promoters and investors, not financial and technological reality.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating after making a Master Cycle low on July 10, touching the lower Triangle trendline.  While not necessary, the Cycles Model may allow another probe lower, creating a possible “tail” on the Triangle formation before reversing higher.

The US 10-year Bond yield is consolidating beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 46.10.  TNX is on an aggressive sell signal with confirmation beneath critical support at 44.90.  The Cycles Model infers that, once the decline begins, it may extend to early September.  There is a growing risk awareness in equities, leaving bonds as a likely haven.  Yields may plunge to the Cycle Bottom currently at 39.15.

The US Dollar is struggling with Intermediate support at 100.56.  Should it regain its footing, it may test the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.80.  Should it rise above it, the formation may be activated , targeting 105.50 or higher.  Alternatively, there is of the USD testing the 52-day Moving Average at 99.95 before trending higher.  Should it do so, it may reset the head & Shoulders formation to target 108.00.

Bitcoin may have completed its retracement to the 52-day Moving Average at 64350.00.  In doing so, bitcoin may soon be making its final probe to or beneath the cycle Bottom, currently at 55083.00.  A decline to 45000.00 is possible.  The Cycles Model allows approximately three more weeks to accomplish its target.

Crude oil is consolidating at the Intermediate resistance at 79.50.  The Cycles Model allows trending strength to show today, which may boost WTI to the 52-day Moving Average at 86.33, if not today, then by early next week.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Russia is struggling to deliver all of the crude it’s being forced to ship overseas in the face of escalating Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries.

Nearly 135 million barrels of Russian crude oil are currently stranded at sea as a result of Ukraine’s airstrike campaign targeting refineries with the intent to cripple crude processing. The offshore backlog is forcing Moscow to significantly ramp up export volumes according to OilPrice.com.”

Gold may have resumed its decline toward the Cycle Bottom at 3771.96.  Should it eextend another week, it may target the lower trendline of its Ending Diagonal trend channel, currently beneath 3600.00.  There os the possibility of two panic down days next week.

The Ag Index has extended its Master Cycle to the max (time) today without breaking out to a new high.  It may result in a devastating decline to the Cycle Bottom as liquidity becomes scarce.   A round trip to the bottom may be inevitable.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:18 pm

SPX made a quite unexpected move this afternoon.  It took out the June 15 high at 7577.92, thereby negating the Triangle formation.  Note that a Triangle formation is a continuation (to new highs) formation, which I dutifully repeated until this morning.  Once today’s high took the June high out, the formation turned very bearish.  The only way to restore the bullish trend is to exceed the June 2 high at 7620.90.  There is no sell signal yet, although the SPX may have completed its Master Cycle high today.  Confirmation of a possible sell signal may come with a decline beneath Intermediate support at 7481.55.

8:25 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7569.10, pressing against the upper trendline of the Triangle formation.  The question is; will the Triangle formation break or hold?  The Model calls for the Triangle to hold, repelling the SPX to, or beneath the lower triangle trendline near 7400.00.  A fractal decline may put the SPX as low as 7200.00 in the next few days.  A brief panic may ensue.

Zerohedge reports, “Futures are higher led by technology stocks, after solid earnings from ASML offered fresh evidence of the relentless demand for chips enabling the global AI buildout and boosted sentiment across the AI Infra trade.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating, clearly off Friday’s low.  Trending strength may be about to send the VIX higher starting today and lasting through the weekend.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may have been repelled by the Cycle Top resistance, again.  TNX is on an aggressive sell signal.  The sell signal may be confirmed beneath Intermediate support at 44.88.  Panic may ensue beneath that level.  The Cycles Model allows a decline through early September.

ZeroHedge notes, “Following yesterday’s much cooler than expected, Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky notes that today’s PPI print matters more for the core PCE read-through (Fed’s favorite inflation indicator), particularly healthcare and financial services.”

The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the Head & Shoulders neckline.  By refusing to decline, the USD puts the dollar shorts in a possibly untenable position.   Should the USD rally above the Cycle Top resistance at 101.32, a rally may ensue , fulfilling the Head & Shoulders formation target.

Bitcoin is challenging its 52-day Moving Average at 64607.00, in a possible completion of its retracement.  Should it be unable to hold that perch, the decline resumes towarf the Cycle Bottom currently at 55043.00.  The Cycles mOdel allows about three weeks to complete the decline.

Crude oil may be consolidating, but is hold ing above Intermediate support at 79.78.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue, with strength to mid-August.  However, the situation may become more complex, with refinery capacity in Russia declining and bottlenecks in Venezuela.

ZeroHedge observes, “Venezuela’s upstream industry has entered a new phase. Following sweeping hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026, the conversation has shifted from whether the country can reopen its oil sector to whether it can successfully execute a meaningful production recovery. The country’s resource potential has never been in doubt. The greater challenge now lies in converting policy momentum into sustained operational growth.”

ZeroHedge notes, “Oil prices are marginally higher overnight after President Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping slowed to a crawl amid the renewed warfare in the critical waterway.”

Gold continues to to consolidate as the Master Cycle draws to a close.  There apperas to be one more decline to completion.  The “normal” target may be the Cycle Bottom at 3776.26.  However, a retail panic may ensue, targeting the lower trendline of the trading channel near 3600.00.

ZeroHedge comments, “On July 7, Bloomberg published an article with the headline: “Gold’s Bull Market Has Ended and Now All Eyes Are on Bears,” explaining how many retail investors have headed for the exits.”

ZeroHedge  reports, “U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has once again assured the public that America’s gold reserves remain fully intact, pushing back against years of speculation surrounding the legendary vaults at Fort Knox.”

BKX is hovering near its Master Cycle high, made yesterday.  The rally is losing energy, but hasn’t given up, yet.   The Cycles Model infers that today or tomorrow may produce a reversal, with strength.  If so, the new Master Cycle may decline to the end of August.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:35 am

Good Morning!’

SPX futures have consolidated around 7500.00, remaining above Intermediate support at 7477.00.  A sell signal is positioned beneath Intermediate support with confirmation beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7429.04.  Wall Street has a busy day ahead.  Today may be particularly volatile.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stocks are struggling for direction as traders waited to buy the dip on a busy day that kicked off with Wall Street earnings whichwith JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi and Wells all reporting. Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress and CPI data are due later.”

The premarket VIX pulled back after testing the 52-day Moving Average at 17.41 yesterday.  The bounce may see increasing strength as it probes toward the Cycle Top resistance at 25.77.  The mid-summer slumber in the VIX may be broken by spikes of volatility through this week.  While possibly violent, this bounce may be short-lived and difficult to trade.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has reversed down from its Cycle Top resistance, extending its Master cycle high from Wednesday to yesterday.  It has created a possible aggressive sell signal in the bond yields.  The 10-year yield may continue to go lower to early September as the bond market offers a potential safe haven.

ZeroHedge observes, “With oil prices having tumbled (before this latest resurgence) but semiconductor prices soaring still, expectations were for a small 0.1% MoM decline in CPI but in fact it printed dramatically cooler, dropping 0.4% MoM – the biggest monthly decline since COVID (April 2020), dragging the YoY CPI change down to +3.5% YoY…”

USD continues to consolidate near the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycle Top offers resistance at 102.29, but the sideways action has relieved the overbought condition.  The Cycles Model signals increasing trending strength that may break out by the weekend.

Bitcoin continues its consolidation beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 4811.00.  It may be ready to resume its decline with increasing volatility beneath the Cycle Bottom at 64976.00.

Crude oil continues its journey higher, challenging Intermediate resistance at 80.22.  A close above that level confirms the buy signal.  The Cycles Model offers increasing strength over the next week.  The current Master Cycle may last to mid-august.

Gold is resisting the decline as it uses 4000.00 as a support for buying the dip.  It may not work.  The decline may continue, as the real support for gold may be the Cycle Bottom at 3780.74.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures retreated from  the upper trendline of the Triangle formation near 7575.00 after pressing against it on Friday.  The Triangle may be due for its final plunge with tail toward 7200.00 in the next week or so.  Should the decline last more than a week, a panic may develop.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower on a combination of US/Iran escalation (which is feeding inflationary concerns) and a violent crash in South Korean stocks (which saw SK Hynix plunge by 15% overnight, the most on record, and unironically follows its record ADR launch in the US), which has put Semis and tech under renewed pressure.”

Tech futures crumbled to a morning low at 29339.70this morning.  Critical support lies at the 52-day Moving Average and lower Triangle trendline at 29304.16.  The Triangle formation may target 27000.00, a 10% decline from last week’s high.  Damage may be extensive, since investors have piled in to leveraged products anticipating the rally to continue.

The premarket VIX reversed to 16.53, confirming Friday’s Master Cycle low.  This may not be the final low.  However, the Triangle formation dictates a revisit of the Cycle Top at 25.79, or possibly the upper Triangle trendline near 28.00.  Analysts are noting the low price.

The US 10-year Bond Yield was resisted at the Cycle Top at 45.97 after making its Master Cycle high on Wednesday.  The decline may begin with a possible burst of energy as it descends to or beneath the lower Triangle trendline near 40.30.  A possible target may be the Cycle Bottom at 39.11 as investors seek a safe haven.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last to early September.

USD emerged above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last to early August.  Should it extend, 108.00 may be possible.

Bitcoin offers a possible sell signal as it descends beneath Intermediate support at 62706.00.  The decline may open without much fanfare, but may gain momentum as it reaches its Cycle Bottom at 54968.00.  The last week of July may be particularly volatile.

Crude oil is testing the mid-Cycle resistance at 75.19, having crossed above the 200-day Moving Average at 74.18 this morning.  It is on a buy signal that may last to mid-August.  Crude may be the recipient of trending strength for the entire duration.

Gold declined to 4044.58 this morning, possibly beginning its trek to the Cycle Bottom at 3783.86.  It is due for a Master Cycle low this week, but may go lower if the Cycle extends into next week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:41 am

SPX may have reversed from its high to test round number support at 7500.00.  A further decline beneath 7500.00 may offer an aggressive sell signal.

10:33 am

While the SPX is nudging its upper Triangle trendline, the NDX has already pierced its lower Triangle trendline and bounced.  What follows may be a possible panic decline toward 27000.00, as all of the recent leveraged longs and ETFs may have to be unwound.  A further decline beneath the 52-dau Moving Average and lower trendline at 29352.45 may announce the beginning of a rapid descent.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are hovering beneath the Triangle trendline at 7545.00 this morning.  Investors are buying the dip in unprecedented volume as if there is no tomorrow, especially using leveraged ETFs to double down on anticipated gains.  The Cycles Model calls for a “speed bump” that may rattle their resolve, suggesting a downdraft , possibly to 7200.00 or lower.  This is not the beginning of a bear market, but may be the beginning of the end of the bull market.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat on the final trading session of the week, with Tech lagging, as traders hold off on big bets ahead of the weekend, with the fragile truce in the Middle East keeping geopolitical risk front of mind.”

The premarket VIX is hovering near its July 6 low at 15.56 this morning.  However, it may be due for a powerful reversal to test the Cycle Top at 25.79 or the upper trendline of the Triangle formation at 27.50 in the next week or so.  The Cycles Model suggests it may be a very dynamic week.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Goldman Sachs’ volatility desk made the following comment:

“With the VIX back to its lowest levels in more than a month, our Vol desk is focused on hedging opportunities as 1-month S&P implied correlation is near its lowest level in 20 years.” 

Simply, a low VIX can convey a sense of market calm on the surface, yet implied correlation tells a different story.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield declined to 45.21 this morning with the cash market not far behind it.  Thursday’s high may have marked the end of the Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle is dur to decline until early September, making this decline a strong one.  The Model emphasizes a strong beginning this weekend the may change the current aggressive sell signal to confirmed beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.72.

ZeroHedge observes, “On the heels of yesterday’s stellar 10Y auction, this afternoon saw an even more stellar-er 30Y auction with the US government selling $22 billion bonds at 5.058%, the highest result since 2007, vs a 5.061% when-issued yield at the 1 p.m. New York time bidding deadline.”

The US Dollar challenged the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.80 and emerged back above it.  Should it remain above the neckline, the USD may extend its rally to early August.  In doing so, it may fulfil the Head & Shoulders target at 105.50.  An analysis of the higher degree USD profile suggests the target may extend to 108.00.  Dollar shorts are on tenderhooks.

Bitcoin has made an attempt at a new high this morning, but failed.  Despite the wide swings, the failure to make a new high leaves only one option…a further decline.  The Cycles Model infers the decline may continue to early August.  The first line of defense against the decline occurs at the Cycle Bottom at 54966.00.  Lower potential supports occur at 50000.00 and 45000.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “New Hampshire’s Executive Council narrowly rejected a proposal Wednesday that would have authorized a $100 million Bitcoin-backed bond, ending what supporters hoped would make the state a pioneer in digital asset finance, according to Bitcoin Magazine.”

Crude oil has made a 54% retracement of its reversal from the Master Cycle low.  While it may go lower, the retracement appears to be complete.  Furthermore, the Cycles Model warns of increased volatility/strength beginning this weekend, as President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire.  The new Master Cycle may be primed to accelerate higher to mid-August.

Gold is hovering as it prepares to finish its current Cycle.  What is noteworthy is that trending strength is returning, suggesting the end may not be peaceful.  The default support may be the Cycle Bottom at 3785.00, with a backup support at 3600.00, should the decline extend.  The process may take up to a week to complete.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Gold’s break below key technical support of 4050 to the 4023 low in New York trading on Wednesday appears driven primarily by stop-loss liquidation and positioning rather than a material deterioration in macro fundamentals, according to UBS.”

The Ag Index may have begun its decline after extending its Master Cycle high until yesterday.  There is no signal until it declines beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 359.86.  The decline may only be 4 weeks long, but it may complete near the Cycle Bottom at 339.18.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating thus far beneath the Cycle Top/trendline resistance near 7550.00-7580.00 and may have begun its descent to/through the lower Triangle trendline.  We see more of a rotation than a sell-off thus far.    The next support is the 52-day Moving Average at 7406.22.  The lower Triangle trendline is at 7350.00.  There may be little or no panic unless the decline extends to July 20, in which case 7200.00 or lower is possible.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 17.57 this morning.  Should SPX resume its decline, VIX may break out above the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.85.  A brief probe to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.82 may be possible.  However, the upper Triangle trendline is still active,  possibly limiting an excessive surge to 27.50-28.00 at this time.

The US 10-year Bond Yield reversed back beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 45.89 this morning.  The action ended the Master Cycle at yesterday’s high and may have given an aggressive sell signal.  Confirmation may not come until TNX declines beneath Intermediate support at 44.85 or the 52-day Moving Average at 44.65.  Meanwhile, the spike in yields may have raised the discomfort level of US stockholders while foreign buyers helped fill yesterday’s auction.

ZeroHedge observes, “Following yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago – with yields surging to the highest level since mid-May – the Treasury completed the sale of $39BN in a 9 Year 10 Month reopening of 10Y cusip QQ7, in what was another spectacular auction.”

The US Dollar appears to be gaining traction at the Head & Shoulders neckline near 100.80.  A breakout above the Cycle Top at 101.20 may launch a very strong rally to, or above, the named target on the chart.   The Intermediate Cycle may focus on a higher target near 108.00.

Bitcoin is consolidating above Intermediate support at 62045.00.  Once beneath that support, downside momentum may carry BTC to the Cycle Bottom at 54910.0.  Outright panic may ensue near the end of July as the decline overrides even the most bearish expectations.

Crude oil has retraced approximately 50% of its rally above the Master Cycle low.  It may retrace a couple more points before resuming its new uptrend.  Trending strength may return this weekend, as the price of crude may rise above the mid-Cycle level at 75.04, confirming a buy signal.

ZeroHedge comments, “Who says price isn’t a rationing mechanism?

Rather than sink billions into long-term oil sands projects, Alberta energy companies are increasingly chasing the Clearwater formation, a conventional heavy oil field that allows producers to capitalize on rising crude prices far more quickly, according to Bloomberg.”

Gold futures jumped today, but no new highs.  The bounce may be a partial retracement of this week’s decline.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible panic decline early next week.  The intended target may be the Cycle Bottom at 3785.53.  However, it may go as far as the trading channel trendline at 3600.00.

The Ag Index is consolidating, with a potential retest of the Cycle Top resistance at 383.51 today.  A reversal may be in the offing once the retest is complete.  The downswing may last to early August.

ZeroHedge advises, “Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a “perfect storm’s a-brewing” across West Africa, the world’s top cocoa-farming region.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:28 am

BKX may have ended its Master Cycle at 188.76 yesterday and has fallen through its Cycle Top support/resistance line at 184.39.  This has triggered an aggressive sell signal for banks.  With interest rates higher in the past two months, teetering CRE and auto loans, loans to leveraged ETFs and unprofitable agricultural prices coupled with drought, there is nowhere to turn.  This may be an early indication of insiders bailing at the top.  Bad news may follow.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7419.20 thus far, as it may be testing support at 7399.59.  It is early enough in the new Master Cycle to see SPX declining beneath the lower Triangle trendline at 7350.00 with a more likely target near 7200.00.  There may be at least a week of decline with a possible extension to the week of July 20.  While the decline in the SPX may be near 5%, the NDX decline may be closer to 10% with additional losses for those using leveraged long ETFs.  The  decline has been merciless for the AI sector with weakness spilling over to the broader market.

ZeroHedge reports, “Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

The premarket VIX rose to 18.91 this morning before easing back beneath mid-Cycle support/resistance at 18.85.  VIX has been compressed enough to allow a relief rally to the Cycle Top at 25.83 or the upper Triangle trendline.  The market opinion is that the VIX may not represent true volatility seen in individual stocks, especially the AI sector.  A part of the conundrum is the use of call options rather that direct investment into underlying stocks.  The leverage expressed in the options adds a layer of volatility not seen in the indexes.

The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 45.71 this morning, nearing Cycle top resistance at 45.84.  This action may be nearing the end of the current Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle may last until early September. The reason that few analysts don’t recognize the pattern is that most analysis is short term.  What we may be witnessing is the end of a massive Primary Cycle lasting approximately 34.4 months.

Crude oil jumped over 5% this morning, creating a buy signal above the 200-day Moving Average at 74.04.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible 6-week rally that may exceed the previous high.

ZeroHedge comments, “Oil prices spiked overnight to three-week-highs after President Trump said that he thought the Iran cease-fire was “over” amid a volatile 24 hours in the Persian Gulf region.”

The USD is challenging the Cycle Top at 101.17.  A clear rally above that level may bring about a further price increase to early August.  Persistent dollar shorts may be hung out to dry as they may be forced to cover.

Bitcoin has declined beneath Intermediate support at 62479.00, confirming the resumption of the decline.  The Cycles Mode suggests another 4 weeks of decline that has a high probability of descending beneath the Cycle Bottom at 54875.00.  An extended Cycle may challenge  the 2024 low at 49202.00.

Gold declined to a morning low at 4034.00.  The Cycles Model suggests another week of decline with rising strength through the weekend.  The Cycle Bottom at 3782.87 is the first line of defense against the decline but, with strength, may give way to the lower trading chanel trendline at 3600.00.

The Ag Index was repelled at the Cycle Top at 383.28, allowing the new Master Cycle to fall as far as the Cycle Bottom at 338.97 by early august.  The rising volatility in agricultural products may eventually send GKX far beyond the Head & Shoulders target.  In the meantime, however, the rising price of oil may have an immediate effect on agricultural prices.