The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
9:35 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose this morning to a high at 7630.20 thus far, confirming the possible extension of the Master Cycle down to critical support at 7500.00 last week. Confirmation of the reversal may be accomplished with a rally above the 52-day Moving Average at 7694.00. The new Master Cycle may probe to fresh all-time highs. The SPX Model target may reach 8265.00 by mid-December. Shoulld the rally continue into 2027, a possible target of 8800.00 may be reached, with strong investor sentiment.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as a slide in oil, a tentative tech rebound and some old-fashioned seasonality lift sentiment on the eve of the midterms: crude tumbled more than 4% after Axios reported that Trump told Netanyahu he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes, chips bounced after Friday’s 7.2% SOX puke, and Chinese stocks jumped as Beijing convened yet another market rescue meeting; as a result Nasdaq futures are up almost 1% and WTI is back below $100.”
NDX found supoort at the mid-Cycle level at 28144.80 on Friday. The bounce may have begun. However, most analysts remain suspicious of the rally until it exceeds the 52-day Moving Average at 29761.00. Once confidence has returned, investors may embark on yet another panic buying Cycle that may extend to 36000.00. Semiconductors have been crushed down to AI lows. Yet the semi economy is still resilient.
The VIX plunges to 18.25 this morning, beneath the mid-Cycle suport at 18.33 and on a sell signal. Analysts claim that vollatility is waking up. The Cycles Model calls this a 1-day shakeout.
The US 10-year Bond Yield may hve made a master Cycle low this morning near the 8-month trendline at 48.70. The trendline may offer the support needed to reverse the decline. Confirmation of a resumption of the uptrend may come above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00, with extra confirmation above the 52-day Moving Average at 50.50.
Crude oil has been shaken out by hopes of a diplomatic resolution of the Iran crisis. Criticl support may be found at the 52-day Moving Average at 94.21. The uptrend may resume shortly.
ZeroHedge reports, “Update(0855ET): Oil is tumbling in the wake of a somewhat rare headline out of Tehran
- Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports
- OIL FALLS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106/BBL
- Oil prices down 6% on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy”
Spot Gold rose to 3966.00 this morning, testing the possible Head & Shoulders neckline. There is some debate whether the October 23 low at 39.75completed the Master Cycle low, or whether the October 30 low (last Friday) constitutes the end of the Master Cycle. The neckline at 3950.00 may tell the diffeence. The earlier low portends an ooutright failure at the neckline with a subsequent decline. Should the October 30 low be the MC low, then a further rally to test upside resistance may be forthcoming. Note the lower trendline of an Ending Diagonal lies at 2905.00. Should Friday’s decline be ratified at the neckline, then the Head & Shoulders formation may become activated. The new Master Cycle may last to mid-December.
The Agriculture index is consolidating above Thursday’s low, but beneath the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 384.55. Should it exceed the mid-Cycle resistance, a new burst of Trending Strength may be imminent.
Bitcoin may have also extended its Master Cycle low to Friday, October 30. Soud that be so, a bounce may alert us to the strength of the new Cycle. The The neckline at 82200.00 awaits a test. A successful rally above th eneckline may activate the Head & Shoulders fomation.