The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
3:18 pm
SPX made a quite unexpected move this afternoon. It took out the June 15 high at 7577.92, thereby negating the Triangle formation. Note that a Triangle formation is a continuation (to new highs) formation, which I dutifully repeated until this morning. Once today’s high took the June high out, the formation turned very bearish. The only way to restore the bullish trend is to exceed the June 2 high at 7620.90. There is no sell signal yet, although the SPX may have completed its Master Cycle high today. Confirmation of a possible sell signal may come with a decline beneath Intermediate support at 7481.55.
8:25 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7569.10, pressing against the upper trendline of the Triangle formation. The question is; will the Triangle formation break or hold? The Model calls for the Triangle to hold, repelling the SPX to, or beneath the lower triangle trendline near 7400.00. A fractal decline may put the SPX as low as 7200.00 in the next few days. A brief panic may ensue.
Zerohedge reports, “Futures are higher led by technology stocks, after solid earnings from ASML offered fresh evidence of the relentless demand for chips enabling the global AI buildout and boosted sentiment across the AI Infra trade.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating, clearly off Friday’s low. Trending strength may be about to send the VIX higher starting today and lasting through the weekend.
The US 10-year Bond Yield may have been repelled by the Cycle Top resistance, again. TNX is on an aggressive sell signal. The sell signal may be confirmed beneath Intermediate support at 44.88. Panic may ensue beneath that level. The Cycles Model allows a decline through early September.
ZeroHedge notes, “Following yesterday’s much cooler than expected, Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky notes that today’s PPI print matters more for the core PCE read-through (Fed’s favorite inflation indicator), particularly healthcare and financial services.”
The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the Head & Shoulders neckline. By refusing to decline, the USD puts the dollar shorts in a possibly untenable position. Should the USD rally above the Cycle Top resistance at 101.32, a rally may ensue , fulfilling the Head & Shoulders formation target.
Bitcoin is challenging its 52-day Moving Average at 64607.00, in a possible completion of its retracement. Should it be unable to hold that perch, the decline resumes towarf the Cycle Bottom currently at 55043.00. The Cycles mOdel allows about three weeks to complete the decline.
Crude oil may be consolidating, but is hold ing above Intermediate support at 79.78. The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue, with strength to mid-August. However, the situation may become more complex, with refinery capacity in Russia declining and bottlenecks in Venezuela.
ZeroHedge observes, “Venezuela’s upstream industry has entered a new phase. Following sweeping hydrocarbon reforms and broader geopolitical developments in early 2026, the conversation has shifted from whether the country can reopen its oil sector to whether it can successfully execute a meaningful production recovery. The country’s resource potential has never been in doubt. The greater challenge now lies in converting policy momentum into sustained operational growth.”
ZeroHedge notes, “Oil prices are marginally higher overnight after President Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping slowed to a crawl amid the renewed warfare in the critical waterway.”
Gold continues to to consolidate as the Master Cycle draws to a close. There apperas to be one more decline to completion. The “normal” target may be the Cycle Bottom at 3776.26. However, a retail panic may ensue, targeting the lower trendline of the trading channel near 3600.00.
ZeroHedge comments, “On July 7, Bloomberg published an article with the headline: “Gold’s Bull Market Has Ended and Now All Eyes Are on Bears,” explaining how many retail investors have headed for the exits.”
ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has once again assured the public that America’s gold reserves remain fully intact, pushing back against years of speculation surrounding the legendary vaults at Fort Knox.”
BKX is hovering near its Master Cycle high, made yesterday. The rally is losing energy, but hasn’t given up, yet. The Cycles Model infers that today or tomorrow may produce a reversal, with strength. If so, the new Master Cycle may decline to the end of August.