The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are consolidating thus far beneath the Cycle Top/trendline resistance near 7550.00-7580.00 and may have begun its descent to/through the lower Triangle trendline. We see more of a rotation than a sell-off thus far. The next support is the 52-day Moving Average at 7406.22. The lower Triangle trendline is at 7350.00. There may be little or no panic unless the decline extends to July 20, in which case 7200.00 or lower is possible.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 17.57 this morning. Should SPX resume its decline, VIX may break out above the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.85. A brief probe to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.82 may be possible. However, the upper Triangle trendline is still active, possibly limiting an excessive surge to 27.50-28.00 at this time.
The US 10-year Bond Yield reversed back beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 45.89 this morning. The action ended the Master Cycle at yesterday’s high and may have given an aggressive sell signal. Confirmation may not come until TNX declines beneath Intermediate support at 44.85 or the 52-day Moving Average at 44.65. Meanwhile, the spike in yields may have raised the discomfort level of US stockholders while foreign buyers helped fill yesterday’s auction.
ZeroHedge observes, “Following yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago – with yields surging to the highest level since mid-May – the Treasury completed the sale of $39BN in a 9 Year 10 Month reopening of 10Y cusip QQ7, in what was another spectacular auction.”
The US Dollar appears to be gaining traction at the Head & Shoulders neckline near 100.80. A breakout above the Cycle Top at 101.20 may launch a very strong rally to, or above, the named target on the chart. The Intermediate Cycle may focus on a higher target near 108.00.
Bitcoin is consolidating above Intermediate support at 62045.00. Once beneath that support, downside momentum may carry BTC to the Cycle Bottom at 54910.0. Outright panic may ensue near the end of July as the decline overrides even the most bearish expectations.
Crude oil has retraced approximately 50% of its rally above the Master Cycle low. It may retrace a couple more points before resuming its new uptrend. Trending strength may return this weekend, as the price of crude may rise above the mid-Cycle level at 75.04, confirming a buy signal.
ZeroHedge comments, “Who says price isn’t a rationing mechanism?
Rather than sink billions into long-term oil sands projects, Alberta energy companies are increasingly chasing the Clearwater formation, a conventional heavy oil field that allows producers to capitalize on rising crude prices far more quickly, according to Bloomberg.”
Gold futures jumped today, but no new highs. The bounce may be a partial retracement of this week’s decline. The Cycles Model anticipates a possible panic decline early next week. The intended target may be the Cycle Bottom at 3785.53. However, it may go as far as the trading channel trendline at 3600.00.
The Ag Index is consolidating, with a potential retest of the Cycle Top resistance at 383.51 today. A reversal may be in the offing once the retest is complete. The downswing may last to early August.
ZeroHedge advises, “Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a “perfect storm’s a-brewing” across West Africa, the world’s top cocoa-farming region.”