The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to a new corrective low at 7649.20 thus far this morning.  The Intermediate support is at 7684.96 and the 52-day Moving Average is at 7532.81, which may be tested in the next 2 days.  Trending Strength may return by the end of the week and continue for the following two weeks in a flurry of panic upside activity.  The uptrend is still intact.

Zerohedge reports, “Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as the market focuses on NVDA / MRVL earnings this week; while the AI theme is pressured globally and memory stocks slump driven by a slide in the Kospi.”

VIX surged to 16.05 in the premarket, then settled back, maintaining its support at the Triangle trendline.  It may surge higher today and probe the upper Ending Diagonal trendline by the end of the week.  Subsequently, the VIX has one more downstrike to go in its fractal repertoire.

The US 10-year Bond Yield  pulled back to the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation this morning after Bessent’s annoncement to use the Treasury General Account (TGA) to sell short-term bills and buy back long bonds.  This new “twist” in the bond market may not last as TNX may be due for an imminent breakout.

ZeroHedge observes, “Having seen yields rebound from their initial decline following the upping of Treasury (long-end) buybacks to ‘at least $4BN’ per operation (and increased its total planned operations), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent jawboned late last week about his ‘bigger toolkit’ and ‘asymmetric information’ in an attempt to further strengthen the ‘Treasury Put’.”

The USD Index may be emerging from its Master Cyce low last Thusday.  Should that be so, a probe above the mid-Cycle resistance at 99..13 may offer a buy signl.  The Cycles Model suggests that the return of Trending Strength may be imminent, which may confirm this outlook.

Crude oil has pulled back to the declining trendlineat 85.50 this morning.  However, the Cycles Model offers a possible surge in strength taking it higher.  Whether it surges to a breakout is still to be determined.  There may be a subsequent pullback to a lower support level by the ned of the week.

Gold may be in its final stages of this retracement rally as it enters the turn window this week.  The shorts have been squeezed by the Treasury QE.  The question is, will it hold?

Bitcoin may be due for a pullback thie week as it may have gone too far, too fast.  The rally isn’t over yet, but some consolidation is due after being repelled at the trendline.  A pullback to the mid-Cycle support at 69138.00 is possible.  Look for the rally to resume at the end of the month.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures bounced this morning after making a 35% retracement from the high.  However, it has remained beneath resistance at 7700.00which may allow a dip lower.  The chances of a deeper low may run out this morning, so we may not have long to wait.  For example, a possible 50% retracement lies near 7560.00.  Investors are “all in” as mutual fund cash is at at an all-time low.  The Treasury’s ill-executed buyback scheme may need a repeat to jolt the markets higher.  The Cycles Model does not show Trending Strength returning until the end of the month.

VIX is xconsolidating near the middle of its recent trading range above the lower Triangle trendline.  A further decline in the SPX may push the VIX higher, as it may have the energy to rise to the Ending Diagonall trendline at 20.00.

Bitcoin rose to a morning high at 78410.00 this morning, beneath the Cycle Top resistaance at 81033.00.  On Tuesday it offered a buy signal, accompanied by trending strength, and off it went, as the shorts frantically covered.  The Cycles Model suggests a pullback may be in order, possibly to the mid-Cycle support at 68961.00, before a month-end burst of energy pushes it higher.  The next resistance level above the Cycle Top lies at the 38.2% retracement level at 84250.00.  The cycles Model sugests the trend may continue (with corrections) until the end of September.

Crude oil is consolidating above trendline support as it consolidates between moves.  The next probe higher may occur next week, with strength, as it extends its rally to mid-October.

Gold is moving higher in a complex correction that may not be complete.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible week of rally before resuming its decline.  It has broken above its downtrend line and may extend to 4900.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have pulled back to 7694.60 this morning, above its correction low at 7688.00.  The Cycles Model suggests that the SPX may grind higher through the end ofthe month.  As it overtakes the Cycle Top at 7821.97, momentum players may enter the fray, pushing it to 8000.00.  The upper trendline is near 7900.00, so there may likely be a throw-over as panic buying takes over.  Bessent’s QE has given the markets the liquidity to go higher despite the pullback in the NDX.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures slide and are trading at session lows, as bond yields surge after yesterday’s Treasury announcement, having now erased the entire post buyback-boost move; yields are 4-5bps higher as the curve bear steepens sharply with the 10Y yield now at 4.69%, above where it was before the Treasury’s press release yesterday, driven by a surge in Brent above $94 after Trump vowed to unleash an “Economic D-Day” on Iran’s economy.”

The premarket VIX has risen above the Triangle trendline as it bounces toward the Ending Diagonal trensline near 20.00.  The Cycles Model suggests positive trending strength may emerge in the next week to punch it up to trendline resistance.  Investors are looking to hedge their “uncertain” longs as the crowd is not fully “in.”.

TNX rose above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 478.00 this morning.  The injection of QE has no staying power, as things are expected to revert back to “normal.”

ZeroHedge observes, “While today’s market moves (post-Bessent’s OpTwist bailout) are changing things rapidly, since the last FOMC meeting, on July 19th, where Warsh held rates (hawkishly) unchanged (in the biggest surprise to market expectations in decades) amid multiple dissents, gold, bitcoin, and oil have outperformed, the dollar and bonds have lagged, with stocks solidly green in the middle…”

USD is stretching the Master Cycle to a new low this morning, as the fresh liquidity has diluted the dollar.  The dollar bears are rejoicing, but there are limits to the decline that may disappoint.  The dollar may consolidate beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at 99.13.  However, it has the probability to offer a buy signal once the USD rises above it.  The new Master Cycle may rise to mid-October, allowing the USD to engage the Head & Shoulders target.

Crude oil rallied above the down-trend line at 85.00. There may be some consolidation around the trendline  before it may continue with greater strength over the weekend.  The Cycles Model indicates the rally may continue to mid-October with the minimum target at the Cycle Top at 110.70.   Should it rise above the Cycle Top, 130.00 may be possible.

Gold may have made its Master Cycle high this morning as  it was repelled by the double resistance at 4533.00.  The reversal is early, but confirmation may come quickly as a potential sell signal lies beneath the combined support currently at 4174.65.

The Ag index has advanced to a possible resistance area as it also approaches the terminus of its current Master Cycle.  This suggests that a reversal may be just days away.  There is a strong probability of a pullback to the Head & Shoulders neckline just under 400.00 in the next week or two.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have been hovering beneaath 7700.00 this morning, suggesting a brief test of the low, possibly to  7680.00 this morning.  That action would give the current Fractal a 21-day profile, allowing SPX  another possible 21 days left to make its final ATH.  8000.00 may be in view, but it may be a struggle to get there.  Breadth is declining, with investors chasing the latest hiccup, with no rational theme.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from a huge Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2% and reversed a 5.8% drop in the Nikkei; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the Triangle formation as it organizes a move toward the Ending Diagonal trendline near 20.00.  Investors are going long and buying protection at the same time.  The Cycles Model maintains that confidence will rise toward the end of the month as the SPX refuses tocorrect.  They will then discard their hedges as the SPX approaches 8000.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield plummeted to a low of 46.33 this morning in a complex correction that may decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 45.70 by the end of the month.  The breakout failed by a mere tick.  Long bonds may get a brief reprieve.  The weekly chart shows a possible Cup with Handle formation with a possible target near 60.00.  The rise in Treasury yields may eventually make the interest payments unsustainable.

USD is extending its Master Cycle beneath the mid-Cycle support at 99.13.  The extension puts the Master  Cycle into overtime, suggesting an imminent reversal.  A rise above the mmid-Cycle level may offer a buy signal.

Crude oil is consolidating just beneath the declining Triangle trendline near 86.50.  A breakout may extend the rally and serve as a  pullback support.  Otherwise, a dip to Intermediate support at 80.25 may offer a platform for a surge of strength next week.

ZeroHedge observes, “Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.”

Gold is approaching its mid-Cycle resistance at 4531.39 where a possible reversal awaits.  With Bessent’s QE attempt, the complex Triangle formation morphed into a simple zigzag formatiion that is nearing its end.  The rally remains corrective, with a significant decline to follow.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The reason for today’s rally is Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that the US would be buying back more bonds further out on the curve.”

The Ag Index continues its ascent after the breakout above the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  While the rally may not be complete, GKX has become extended with a potential rising of a pullback to the neckline.  There are only a couple of weeks left in the current Master Cycle, leading to a neutral stance for the time to the pullback.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:35 sm

The Banking Index is testing its lower Ending Diagonal trendline at 192.00, a possible sign of an imminent extended bounce to the upper trendline near 200.00.  FOMO may return near the end of the month, suggesting a throw-over, possibly to 210.00, may occur.  However, bad nows may follow in September, setting the stage for liquidity restrictions to follow.  This may be a precursor to a possible 2-year decline in the BKX.  The off-balance-sheet AI timebomb has been spotted.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7699.70 this morning, as suggested yesterday.  This may be a very shallow flat correction, should the low hold.  It may also mark the end of a 19-day Fractal, allowing the SPX to move considerably higher.  If so, the new Fractal may target  8000.00 over the next 2-3 weeks.  The fractal structure may allow SPX to go higher, but a round number such as 8000.00 may be a strong resistance.  Should the SPX decline beneath 7700.00 this morning, it may affect the fractal target, as well.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are a “sea of red” (as Bloomberg describes it) in early trading as thin summer volumes persist, with the wrong kind of inflation coming to the fore and Monday’s tech selloff weighing on sentiment despite bullish AI news.”

The premarket VIX consolidated near the Triangle trendline near 15.50 this morning.  Investors are becoming nervous, as downside hedging may be rising.The fractal formation suggests a bounce to the upper trendline of the tradig channel at 20.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures forse to 47.47 this morning.  The cash market is not far behind.  TNX has now broken above the Cycle Top resistance at 47.34 and is likely to go higher.  Today promises to be a day of strength, as a new high may be recorded today.  The Head & Shoulders formation may now be engaged with the targeting in place.  There may only be two weeks left in the current Master cycle.  However, there may be short covering that has the potential to accelerate the rally toward its goal.  Analysts are concerned that credit may be a problem with rising rates.

The US Dollar is moving higher this morning after a bounce from is Master Cycle yesterday.  The Cycles Model suggests a calm but rising week, followed by a burst of strength next week, possibly above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.53.  The cyces Model suggests a rally to mid-October in which the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated.

Crude oil has advanced to a nominal new high, but may be repelled by the declining Triangle trendline near 85.75.  The trendline has already been broken in July, so the pullback, if any, may be short.  The Cycles Model suggests a p;ossible breakout early next week, followed by a rally to the Cycle Top resistance at 110.65.  The current Master Cycle may last to mid-October, so a rally challenging the March high is possible.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Brent and WTI futures remain below $100 a barrel on Tuesday morning, partly suppressed by governments releasing strategic oil reserves into global markets.”

Gold is consolidating undier its August 13 high.  The Cycles Model posits a steady decline with possible downside acceleeration toward the end of the month.  The current Master Cycle may last to mid-September.  A breakdown to the Cycle Bottom at 3815.35 is possible.

The breakout in the Agricultural Index has now become obvious to the mainstream.  There may be more upside to this bounce as shorts cover and investors pile on to the rally.  The customary backtrack to the Head & Shoulders may have happened in late July.  If so, the rally may proceed in strength to early September. A brief correction back to the neckline may occur.

ZeroHedge posits, “JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi’s warning last week that the next global food crisis could begin as early as next year has been a major wake-up call for some, adding to the growing voices on institutional desks warning that food inflation is poised to re-accelerate.”

Bitcoin rose above its 52-day Moving Average at 6360.00 snf itd Intermediate resistance at 64190.00, giving it a confirmed buy signal.  the consolidation did not take out the August 3 low at 62223.00.  the Cycles Model offers “clear sailing” to the end of September.  This may allow BTC to rally to the trendline and Cycle Top resistance at 80878.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures continue to consolidate above the Cycle Top support/resistance level at 7798.72, but beneath Thursday’s high at 7816.70.  .  This may be an expanded correction, making a new high before a plunge to 7700.00 (a flat correction) or lower (an expanded correction), confounding analysis.  Thus far, the dip has refused to come, leaving the SPX in very overbought territory.  The worry is that mid-term seasonality may begin working against the markets.  The Cycles Model suggests the SPX may proceed to the end of the month with little or no strength, allowing a corrective decline.  However, the rally may resume thereafter, in strength, to mid-October.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher again, just a few basis points away from a new all time high, led by Tech as the week starts with Semis / Memory / AI themes bid globally, as small-caps are fractionally in the red.”

The premarket VIX appears to be back-testing the lower Triangle trendline near 15.00.  However, the VIX is not finished with its decline to the lower trading channel trendline near 13.50.  Thereafter, a bounce may take the VIX to the upper trendline of the tradiong channel.  Single stock volatility is falling.  However, that may result in a push to a bounce in index volatility soon.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has elevated above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 47.00 this morning.  The uptrend may now resume, as Trending Strength may arrive imminently.  Once TNX clears the neckline with a new high, the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated with a minimum range near 50.00 to the H&S minimum target of 54.27.  US debt may hit $40 trillion imminently.

The USD Index bounced from its 200-day Moving Average at 99.17 this morning, extending the Master Cycle low.  We may see some consolidation this week, but Trending Strength may return by next week, sending the USD above its Head & Shoulders Neckline at 101.80.  An aggressive buy signal may be made here.   A strong buy signal lies above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.57.

Crude oil futures bounced off the 52-day Moving Average at 79.91 on Friday and may be proceeding higher.  The declining trendline lies near 85.00.  Above that is clear sailing thrugh mid-October, according to the Cycles Model.  Trending Strtength may apppear next week, especially above the declining (Triangle) trendline.

Gold bounced from round number support at 4300.00 on Friday, but lacked the conviction to make a new high.  Thursday’s high at 4449.69 may simply have been a mid-Cycle swing high.  The Cycles Model points to a possible new low by mid-September, confounding analysts.

The Agriculture Index is making new highs not seen since February 2025.  The move above the Head & Shoulders neckline may be triggering that formation with a minimum Target of 459.00.    Now that the breakout is secure, GKX may retreat to the neckline near 398.00 in a consolidation before moving higher.

ZeroHedge remarks, “JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the “Five Ws”: War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.”

Bitcoin appears close to making a new low beneath the August 3 low at 62223.55.   However, as weak as it may apear, Trending Strength may resume imminently.  A leap  above Intermediate support/resistance at 64155.00 may offer a buy signal for bitcoin.  This may lead to a long-lived rally to the end of September.  The next point of resistance may be the mid-Cycle at 68906.00.  Should it overcome that resistance, the cycle Top at 80892.00 may be apropriate.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating abov ethe Cycle Top at 7788.06 after making a new all-time high and closing above Cycle Top support yesterday.  It is “climbing a the wall of worry” as it refuses to correct.  Should it make another new high, it may resume a steady rally to 8200.00 or higher.  The Cycle Top may remain the support going forward.  The prospect of a further correction is diminishimg.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning.”

The premarket VIX xonsolidated beneath the Triangle trendline as it may test the declining tresing channel trendline beneath it.  It may continue to glide/xonsolidate lower for the next week.  Fear of missing out on the rally may put the VIX into a deep slumber.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is consolidating after a strong decline yesterday.  The decline may resume for a few more days, as the potential target for this correction lies at the 52-day Moving Average at 45.67.  However, the uptrend remains intact with potential new highs above the neckline in the next week.  The small bond refundings this week may have kept the TNX from breaking out above the neckline.

Zerohedge muses, “After yesterday’s ugly 10Y auction, moments ago we got the last of the week’s refunding auctions, when the Treasury sold $25BN in 30Y paper (the same paper that has seen yield shoot up in the past week, ever since Warsh’s most recent FOMC meeting in which he left the long-end hang out to dry), and just like the 10Y auction before it, this one was also rather deplorable.”

Crude oil rose to 82.99 thiks morning after testing the 52-day Moving Average at 80.10.  The minor correction may be over and WTI may be capable of soaring higher.  A breakout above its prior high sets the Cycle Top at 110.56 as a potential target.

Gold has come off the top of its “tail” and may be due to resume its decline.  Not all Triangle formations produce “tails,”  but when they do the result is a rogue fractal that misleads the crowd.  The next four weeks may bring new lows.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:05 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures stayed within its immediate treading range overnight and now may be testing the Cycle Top resistnace at 7765.84.  Should it break out, the correction may be concluded and new highs may appear.  There is a diminishing possibility of a short-lived probe lower that may preceed the breakout.  The CPI report is on deck.

Zerohedge reports, “US: Futures are higher, led by Tech as AI infra earnings boost the theme while the Semis trade was bid overnight led by a surge in Korea’s Kospi.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the Triangle trendline at 15.00.  The trendline may hold, allowing the VIX to elevate toward the 52-day resistance.  Investors are still nervous.  However, the down trend in the VIX remains intact.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is retreating from the Head & Shoulders neckline.  Its probable target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 45.49.  A surge in volatility is expected in the next couple of days, potentially assisting the decline.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures contiue to consolidate around the Cycle Top support/resistance level at 7755.00.  The  pressure to retrace the 3-day rally is diminishing and may expire in the next day or so.  Despite the worries being expressed about the AI shenanigans, money continues to flow into equities.  The mania in Korea has been flushed out.  The Cycles Model suggests there may be room for another bout of expansion, possibly to mid-September.  The market is climbing a wall of worry.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures were trading near session lows with bond yields at August highs of 4.74% and Brent rising above $90 for the first time in two weeks when – with just hours until the market open – we had the now standard double-whammy of well-timed “imminent deal optimism” thanks first to the Qatar foreign ministry, followed less than an hour later by comments from the Pakistan defense minister – a man repeatedly used by the Trump admin to spread market-moving propaganda – which sparked instant algo buying on hopes of, what else, an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”

The premarket VIX appears to be consolidating above the Triangle trendline.  While it may bounce on a SPX correction, it has room to decline beneath the Triangle, forming a “tail” that may extend lower.  The Cycles Model indicate the possibility of a further decline until the week of september 10.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures rose to 47.36 this morning, above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 47.00 and above the Cycle Top resistance at 47.06.  A close above those levels gives further credence to the buy signal in place since late June.  The Cycles Model shows that TNX may continue to rise until the first week of September.  The estimated cost of US government debt servicing may rise at a parabolic rate.

The US Dollar continues to rise above its Master Cycle low made last friday.  Recognition may not come from the analysts until it rises above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.54.  Above that, the dollare bears may become uncomfortable.

Crude oil leaped higher this morning, but settled back on news of an “immient agreement” with Iran.  While the Cycles Model shows August 5 as the possible end of the old Master Cycle, it also shows rising volatility starting this week and extending through mid-October.

Gold on the CME rose to 4435.36 thjis morning while gold futures rose to 4494.90.  The “tail” of the triangle is extending as  investors view it as a breakout.  The current Master Cycle is still underway with today’s activity as a “swing” high, due to a surge in strength in mid-Cycle.  The current iteration may be capable of going down to mid-September.

The Ag Indes is consolidating beneath its cycle To at 393.54.  Agricultural commodities are in flux, but the longer term trend is “up.”  should GKX rise above 398.00, the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated.  The current Cycle may be in rogress until mid-September.

ZeroHedge reports, “Chicago wheat futures are coiling for a breakout (one way or another) as ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure and bulk carriers threaten exports from one of the world’s most important breadbaskets.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7767.30 over the weekend in an attempt ot remain above the Cycle Top support/resistance at 7743.73.  Support may fail followed by a decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 7498.98.  The squeeze may have run its course and, with dismal economic news last week, hedge funds have started shorting again.    Normally we may see another day or two of decline.  However, should the Cycle Top hold, stocks may rally forcefully.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures start the new week barely higher, having erased almost all of their overnight gains, yet still trading at all time highs, led by Tech with small caps starting the week in the red.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the trendline at 15.00.  It is due for a bounce that may take it to the mid-Cycle resistnce at 18.65.  There may be some hedging going on, but it doesn’t appear to be a driving force.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may be searching for the Cycle Top and neckline at 46.99 this morning.  While TNX has performed a minimal retracement, it may find better support at  the 52-day Moving Average at 45.41.  A surge of strength may appear late this week that could restart the uptrend.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The Federal Reserve’s legal mandate is clear. It must focus on stable prices and maximum employment. In the past five years, the Fed has failed on both.”

The US Dollar Index has risen off its Master Cycle low, made on Friday.  The bounce off mid-Cycle support at 99.13 offers a possible aggressive buy signal.  Confirmation may come above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.53.  While the reversal may be off to slow start, the new master Cycle may prove to be long lasting, to mid-October.

The “Yentervention” that sought to stabilize the Yen in late July ended in a Master cycle high on August 3.  Unfortunately, the spike in the Yen was a weak one that may be doomed to go lower.  Support at the 200-day Moving Average at 65.38may be failing.    The new (declining) Master Cycle may last to the end of September.  A minimal deckline may reach 55.00.  It may go lower.

ZeroHedge observes, “Eight-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards is warning of a financial calamity already underway that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to contain.  It is the Japanese yen carry trade where the US Treasury is propping up the yen’s value.”

Gold may have reversed this morning, ending an elongated Master Cycle on Friday.  Retail is buying golld again, after months of disappointment.  However, this “breakout” may also fail to meet revived investor expectations.

Crude oil has risen above the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 77.60 and is testing the 52-day Moving Average at 80.59.  The Cycles Model suggests there may be a few days left in this correction before a buy signal may be restored.  A possible downside target may be near 70.00.