The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:35 sm
The Banking Index is testing its lower Ending Diagonal trendline at 192.00, a possible sign of an imminent extended bounce to the upper trendline near 200.00. FOMO may return near the end of the month, suggesting a throw-over, possibly to 210.00, may occur. However, bad nows may follow in September, setting the stage for liquidity restrictions to follow. This may be a precursor to a possible 2-year decline in the BKX. The off-balance-sheet AI timebomb has been spotted.
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 7699.70 this morning, as suggested yesterday. This may be a very shallow flat correction, should the low hold. It may also mark the end of a 19-day Fractal, allowing the SPX to move considerably higher. If so, the new Fractal may target 8000.00 over the next 2-3 weeks. The fractal structure may allow SPX to go higher, but a round number such as 8000.00 may be a strong resistance. Should the SPX decline beneath 7700.00 this morning, it may affect the fractal target, as well.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are a “sea of red” (as Bloomberg describes it) in early trading as thin summer volumes persist, with the wrong kind of inflation coming to the fore and Monday’s tech selloff weighing on sentiment despite bullish AI news.”
The premarket VIX consolidated near the Triangle trendline near 15.50 this morning. Investors are becoming nervous, as downside hedging may be rising.The fractal formation suggests a bounce to the upper trendline of the tradig channel at 20.00.
The US 10-year Bond Yield futures forse to 47.47 this morning. The cash market is not far behind. TNX has now broken above the Cycle Top resistance at 47.34 and is likely to go higher. Today promises to be a day of strength, as a new high may be recorded today. The Head & Shoulders formation may now be engaged with the targeting in place. There may only be two weeks left in the current Master cycle. However, there may be short covering that has the potential to accelerate the rally toward its goal. Analysts are concerned that credit may be a problem with rising rates.
The US Dollar is moving higher this morning after a bounce from is Master Cycle yesterday. The Cycles Model suggests a calm but rising week, followed by a burst of strength next week, possibly above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.53. The cyces Model suggests a rally to mid-October in which the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated.
Crude oil has advanced to a nominal new high, but may be repelled by the declining Triangle trendline near 85.75. The trendline has already been broken in July, so the pullback, if any, may be short. The Cycles Model suggests a p;ossible breakout early next week, followed by a rally to the Cycle Top resistance at 110.65. The current Master Cycle may last to mid-October, so a rally challenging the March high is possible.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Brent and WTI futures remain below $100 a barrel on Tuesday morning, partly suppressed by governments releasing strategic oil reserves into global markets.”
Gold is consolidating undier its August 13 high. The Cycles Model posits a steady decline with possible downside acceleeration toward the end of the month. The current Master Cycle may last to mid-September. A breakdown to the Cycle Bottom at 3815.35 is possible.
The breakout in the Agricultural Index has now become obvious to the mainstream. There may be more upside to this bounce as shorts cover and investors pile on to the rally. The customary backtrack to the Head & Shoulders may have happened in late July. If so, the rally may proceed in strength to early September. A brief correction back to the neckline may occur.
ZeroHedge posits, “JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi’s warning last week that the next global food crisis could begin as early as next year has been a major wake-up call for some, adding to the growing voices on institutional desks warning that food inflation is poised to re-accelerate.”
Bitcoin rose above its 52-day Moving Average at 6360.00 snf itd Intermediate resistance at 64190.00, giving it a confirmed buy signal. the consolidation did not take out the August 3 low at 62223.00. the Cycles Model offers “clear sailing” to the end of September. This may allow BTC to rally to the trendline and Cycle Top resistance at 80878.00.