The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures contiue to consolidate around the Cycle Top support/resistance level at 7755.00. The pressure to retrace the 3-day rally is diminishing and may expire in the next day or so. Despite the worries being expressed about the AI shenanigans, money continues to flow into equities. The mania in Korea has been flushed out. The Cycles Model suggests there may be room for another bout of expansion, possibly to mid-September. The market is climbing a wall of worry.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures were trading near session lows with bond yields at August highs of 4.74% and Brent rising above $90 for the first time in two weeks when – with just hours until the market open – we had the now standard double-whammy of well-timed “imminent deal optimism” thanks first to the Qatar foreign ministry, followed less than an hour later by comments from the Pakistan defense minister – a man repeatedly used by the Trump admin to spread market-moving propaganda – which sparked instant algo buying on hopes of, what else, an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
The premarket VIX appears to be consolidating above the Triangle trendline. While it may bounce on a SPX correction, it has room to decline beneath the Triangle, forming a “tail” that may extend lower. The Cycles Model indicate the possibility of a further decline until the week of september 10.
The US 10-year Bond Yield futures rose to 47.36 this morning, above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 47.00 and above the Cycle Top resistance at 47.06. A close above those levels gives further credence to the buy signal in place since late June. The Cycles Model shows that TNX may continue to rise until the first week of September. The estimated cost of US government debt servicing may rise at a parabolic rate.
The US Dollar continues to rise above its Master Cycle low made last friday. Recognition may not come from the analysts until it rises above the 52-day Moving Average at 100.54. Above that, the dollare bears may become uncomfortable.
Crude oil leaped higher this morning, but settled back on news of an “immient agreement” with Iran. While the Cycles Model shows August 5 as the possible end of the old Master Cycle, it also shows rising volatility starting this week and extending through mid-October.
Gold on the CME rose to 4435.36 thjis morning while gold futures rose to 4494.90. The “tail” of the triangle is extending as investors view it as a breakout. The current Master Cycle is still underway with today’s activity as a “swing” high, due to a surge in strength in mid-Cycle. The current iteration may be capable of going down to mid-September.
The Ag Indes is consolidating beneath its cycle To at 393.54. Agricultural commodities are in flux, but the longer term trend is “up.” should GKX rise above 398.00, the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated. The current Cycle may be in rogress until mid-September.
ZeroHedge reports, “Chicago wheat futures are coiling for a breakout (one way or another) as ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure and bulk carriers threaten exports from one of the world’s most important breadbaskets.”