The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:02 am

Good Morning!

SPX extended to 5703.00 before beginning  a reversal yesterday afternoon.  It may now decline for the next two days to a new low approaching the 1987 trendline near 5450.00.  From there another bounce may develop going into options expiration on Friday.  Contrary to popular opinion, the decline is far from over.  The SPX is due to decline beneath the 1987 trendline next week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:17 am

Good Morning!

SPX may be finally at a turning point for another descent.  The possible target is 5400.00-5450.00.  It may bounce at the 1987 trendline (on the daily chart) near 5450.00, offering a possible 3-5 day bounce as high as 5773.00 as we go into options expiration.  However, should it cross significantly beneath the 1987 trendline, the bounce may be shortened by the trendline.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower to start the week – but well off the lowest levels of the session – following the best day for US stocks since November, as the market digests trade war news and the Trump Put remains absent. Over the weekend, Scott Bessent dismissed recent stock declines as healthy, reinforcing the view that President Donald Trump’s administration is unlikely to step in to boost markets (the Fed is a different matter). Trump also reminded investors over the weekend that he would be imposing both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down -0.2% having been down as much as 0.6% earlier; Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% as Mag 7 stocks edged lower, though Nvidia gained before its much anticipated conference on artificial intelligence. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4%, extending its year-to-date outperformance against US stocks. In global news, Trump will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday about ending the war in Ukraine. So far the Ukraine ceasefire news is having a muted impact. Trump also said reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs will hit on April 2. Meanwhile, the US retail operator of Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy after years of poor performance. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens while the USD falls to fresh 4 month lows. Commodities are bid higher led by Ags and Energy, following the latest stimulus vows from China. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where a stronger number may give the market comfort in trying to create a relief rally and the Fed on Weds could be supportive too.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:45 am

My apologies.  I can only get a partial image for the SPX.  However, it shows the potential actions that may take place in the next few days.  The Model anticipates the SPX may decline to the 1987 trendline near 5450.00,  possibly by Monday.  Then it may bounce to the mid-Cycle resistance at 5770.76 sometime next week.  The final plunge may begin by options expiration next Friday, lasting up to 2 weeks.  The anticipated final target in this series may be near 5100.00.  This is a projection and not a guarantee of performance.  Should the SPX go beneath the 1987 trendline this week, the decline may be much deeper.  The SPX is anticipated going beneath the trendline after the bounce, but may do so sooner..

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

4:00 pm

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX has opened near mid-Cycle support/resistance after bouncing off the 200-day Moving Average yesterday.  It’s deep in short gamma beneath 5800.00.   Dealers would like to see SPX rise above that level.  Unfortunately, it may not succeed, as day traders are piling into puts, especially beneath 5750.00.  With short gamma as prevalent as it is, there is no need for a catalyst to turn a decline into a rout.  Top of the book liquidity has been cut in half since the beginning of the year, especially with leveraged ETF strategies.  In addition, CTAs are selling large holdings at the open and at the close.  This is no time for being long.

11:00 am

The Ag Index, GKX, has risen above the trendline at 374.00, creating a buy signal.  Food prices appear to be heading much higher.  This is a “must own” category.  The problem isn’t just supply and demand.  Supply chains are becoming clogged and broken.

BKX is bouncing from a potential Head & Shoulders neckline.  The formation is skewed, but may be legitimate.  Consider going short on your most hated bank.

Crude oil has fallen beneath the massive Head & Shoulders neckline at 66.00.  Consider shorting/;hedging this commodity as the Cycles Model suggests the decline may run until mid-April.

ZeroHedge observes, “Oil prices extended their losses overnight to the lowest in almost six months as traders wrestle with conflicting signals on the longevity and effects of US tariffs on the country’s two largest external crude suppliers.

A mixed bag from API last night did not help but all eyes on the official data this morning for any signs of life.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

2:25 pm

The Banking Index hit its December low and may have formed a small Head & Shoulders formation.  A breakdown through the neckine may produce a decline to the September low.  The formation is at the right place and the right time, so we may follow it down to its conclusion.

12:17 pm

The Ag Index has bounced from its mid-Cycle support at 370.45 with precision and had risen back above its trendline near 373.00.  This has given a possible buy signal for the Ag Index.  A rally above its most recent high produces a target over 500.00.   This may be a very welcome contrast to the goings-on in stocks.

11:52 am

SPX has declined to the 200-day Moving Average (a make-or-break level for some traders) at 5725.86, then bounced.  However, there is another resistance near 5775.00 that may stop the bounce.  The results is a possible resumption of the decline beneath the 200-day.  The CTA sell signal is at 5887.00, so a possible $24 billion of stocks may be sold this week by the CTAs alone.  Many trading desks are turning “tactically bearish” today.

2:30 pm

The bounce went well above the technical resistance, possibly trying to escape short gamma beneath 5800.00.  It may be possible that the powers-that-be may be trying to convince the CTAs not hold off on the sales.

8:15 am

Good Morning!  I have been keeping an eye on the Weather, since my destination this week is near an area expecting 10-20 inches of snow tomorrow.  It now appears that the storm may have passed by Thursday, allowing me to leave on Thursday instead of Wednesday.   All is subject to change.

SPX futures are testing 5800.00 this morning.  There is little to stop it there, so the next support may be the mid-Cycle support at 5758.46, where a bounce is possible.  Beneath that, supports may be found at round number intervals, such as 5600 and 5500.00.  A significant bounce may be found at the 1987 trendline near 5400.00, possibly in the next week.  The decline may gain intensity through March 21, but may not be over until the end of the month.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5900.00.  Long gamma may begin above 5905.00 while short gamma intensifies beneath 5800.00.  It appears that there may be a bounce with the dealers attempting to achieve 5800.00 at the close.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower, tracking European and Asian markets, with the dollar plunging on mounting recession fears, as the Trump trade war officially started at midnight, although according to JPMorgan it could be even worse and the “downward reaction is muted given the significant, expected impact on the economy and earnings expectations.” At the same time, Canada, China, and Mexico are rolling out their retaliatory measures. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5%, and near session lows, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.6%, with Mag7 names sliding premarket and NVDA tumbling another 2.4% after plunging 8.7% on Monday. Investors will also be waiting to see what Trump says in his State of the Union speech tonight (some see it as a final hope for an off-ramp). Bond yields are mixed as the curve twists steeper and USD plunges amid rising fears the tariffs will accelerate a recession. Commodities are weaker with precious outperforming while energy stocks underperform as oil prices fall further after OPEC+ announced plans to revive halted production. WTI declines 0.8% to $67.80 a barrel, the lowest since December. There are no major macro data releases today and the Fed’s Williams speaks ~2.20pm EST; Trump’s State of the Union address is at 9:00pm ET.”

VIX Index rose to 24.69 this morning as investors sought hedges against the decline in stocks.  There may be a burst in trending strength throughout the week as the “fear index” gets more attention.  VIX is universally recognized in a positive trend above 25.00, so the rally may become more energized this week.

Bitcoin slipped  beneath the mid-Cycle support/;resistance at 84347.22 this morning, reinforcing the sell signal.  Bitcoin may be in the final week of its decline in the current Master Cycle.  We may expect a bounce during the week of March 10. A lot may happen in the next week or so, since Bitcoin is a highly leveraged trading vehicle.  The “Trump Bump” may blow up.

TNX futures declined to 41.28 this morning, in line with the December low at 41.26.  It may be due for a mid-Cycle reversal.  The current Master Cycle appears to run to the end of March.  However, an inversion is not out of the question, as a price level may have been met.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

Sunday, 6:30 pm  I have two doctor’s appointments tomorrow and I will be leaving on an extended trip starting on March 5  until March 25.  I may have some intermittent moments to jot down my observations, but nothing that I can predict in advance.  I am sorry for the inconvenience.

SPX ended its Friday at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its 7-day decline.  The retracement probe is either ended or may extend to the 50% retracement level near 6000.00.  If so, it may reverse in the first hour on Monday.  A lot of investors took Friday afternoon’s reversal as a signal that the decline is over.  No so.  There is a tremendous amount of resistance at the 6000.0 level, including both the Diagonal trendline and the 50-day Moving Average..  In addition, the Cycles Model infers the decline may continue to the end of March!  The late Friday rally took me by surprise.  You see, the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation is nearly impermeable.  I took my cue from that experience and used the neckline as the final resistance.  The Head & Shoulder formation crumbled in the last hour on Friday.  Mea culpa!  Looking ahead, the Cycles Model offers periods of trending strength this weekend and the following two weekends as well.  I may be able to offer more commentary around mid-day on Monday and possibly Tuesday morning.

Monday, 7:30 am

The bounce has now extended to 5989.60 thus far.  Goldman warns of a “painful short squeeze” today.  However, most of the pain is already over at the 38.2% retracement. There may be an incremental increase lasting an hour or to mid-day.   The maximum resistance appears at 6010.00 in what may be termed an expanded flat correction.  Long gamma may begin above 6980.00,.  However, dealers may not be comfortable chasing long gamma on such a day as this.  The Cycles Model calls for high volatility and a possible reversal today.

Bitcoin is up 22% this morning after last week’s dismal performance.  It has been pushed back at Intermediate resistance at 95648.00.  However, it is likely to go for the 50-day Moving Average and trendline near 97695.00 yet today.  The uptrend may have been broken and maximum resistance may lie just above.

Monday 1:20 pm

SPX made the turn in the very first hour of the day.  The Cycles inference of possibly a panic down day was correct.  It now appears that the decline may gather momentum through the rest of the week.  It is now headed toward the 1987 trendline near 5400.00.  Another possible support level may be the August 5 low at 5119.26.  Should the 1987 trendline be broken, then the August 5 low may be the the month-end target.  The saying goes, “The market goes up the escalator,  down the elevator.”

The Ag Index is making good headway in its retracement decline.  It is now approaching the 50% retracement level.  The mid-Cycle support is at 370.53 while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 364.52.  It is approaching a good price range for accumulation. , as the next move up may be explosive.

ZeroHedge comments, “”U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has ordered the delay of a new rule updating the definition of “healthy” on food product labels.

The new Food and Drug Administration (FDA) final rule will not go into effect until April 28, a delay from the originally announced implementation date of Feb. 25, Kennedy said in an update on Tuesday.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

2:07 pm

There is a struggle in the SPX to see who gains ascendancy.  While another new low was made this afternoon, there may be a struggle by the dealers to keep SPX above the short gamma level at 5850. 00.  Should they succeed, an attempt may be made at 5900.00 again, to frustrate those put buyers.  Whether they succeed today or not, the trend is lower prices in the next month.

10:37 am

SPX has bounced to retest the Head & Shoulders neckline at 5900.00.  We may see the decline resume shortly.  Be warned that the CTA “sell level” at 5887.00 has been triggered.  This means that going forward the decline may accelerate due to higher volume.  Market liquidity is down significantly in the last week.  SPX has seen a 5% loss from the top in what may be termed a retail buyers’ strike thus far.  That may change to a more active selling environment with added (larger) players.   The Head & Shoulders formation suggests a possible greater loss to come.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures bounced to 5888.00 before easing lower this morning.  Yesterday the trendline near 6000.00 was retested from beneath, then SPX declined through  the 100-day Moving Average at 5950.00.  Thus far the selling panic has been largely retail and hedge funds, but now larger players are getting mightily concerned.  The CTA trigger at 5887.00 has been passed without so much as a nod and this morning’s bounce was not able to regain the “safe” level.  That may trigger $40 billion in sales during the next week.  This may be slightly offset by pension and 401(k) purchases.   The Cycles Model calls for a “panic weekend” this week and into the next three weekends as well.

Today’s options chain is deep into short gamma beneath 6000.00.  Short gamma has been purchased in volume every 50 points down to 5400.00, suggesting a relentless decline may be possible.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, rebounding from an overnight rout driven by a plunge in Chinese and Japanese stocks, while the ongoing crash in bitcoin which sent the token briefly below $80K and down 25% from its all time high, is not helping the dismal sentiment. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.2% and well off the lows,signaling a rebound after the underlying index erased the last of its 2025 gains on Thursday and outperforming both Nasdaq and Russell. Mag 7 are higher led by META (+0.5%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Crypto-linked stocks are lower as Trump’s latest trade-tariff threats prompted a rush by some investors to safer assets, deepening the recent rout in Bitcoin. Bond yields are 1-2bp lower and the USD is higher as the yen finally cracks lower. Commodities are mostly lower: WTI -1.1%, copper -0.7%. Overall, we have seen equities trying to rebound modestly from yesterday’s selloff, but macro narrative has been pressured from trade/policies uncertainties (Trump is set to talk with Zelensky today) and stagflation concerns ; today we get the January PCE and income/spending report: core PCE is expected to print 2.6% YoY, vs. 2.8% prior.”

VIX futures are hovering near the top of the trading range this morning, awaiting the market open.  While market savvy investors are hedging, most ignore the VIX as an indicator of market health/distress.  Commentators may take notice once the VIX has surpassed it historic median price near 25.00.  The Cycles Model indicates a series of possible upside panics in the VIX over the next three weeks.

The March 5 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00.  Short gamma resides between 15.00 and 18.00.  Long gamma may begin above 20.00 and remains strong to 28.00.

TNX may be making a mid-Master Cycle reversal as its futures bounced from the mid-Cycle support at 42.21.  A rally above the trendline at 44.00 may confirm the reversal.  If correct, we may see TNX resuming its rally through the end of March.  The implication is that both stocks and bonds may be in a panic decline.  Nowhere to hide, except cash.

ZeroHedge observes, “After hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI (and various survey-based inflation expectations), today brings the Big Kahuna – The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE – which is expected to show a dovish downturn (from +2.8% YoY to +2.6% YoY). And that is exactly what happened with headline PCE rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and Core up 0.3% MoM (as expected). That pushed the YoY shifts lower on a sequential basis (Core PCE YoY at its lowest since June 2024)…”

Bitcoin has been plumbing new lows, reaching 78329.80 prior to a bounce.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible bounce back to the mid-Cycle resistance at 83719.34 as early as today prior to a resumption of the decline.  There may be a significant low made during the week of March 10.

Gold futures have declined to 2862.69 thus far this morning.  Currently, gold is on an aggressive sell signal, urging investors to lighten their long positions. It is approaching its first confirmed sell at the intermediate support at 2839.33.  Beneath that, the sell signal becomes more urgent.  The Cycles Model infers that the decline may continue to the end of March.  Diagnal patteerns often retrace back to their source (1618.00).

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:06 pm

SPX has fallen through the neckline of a small Head & Shoulders formation.  People ask, “Why do Head & Shoulders formations have a minimum target?”  The reason is that third Waves can never be the smallest of an impulsive series.  An impulse contains 5 Waves, in which the third normally offers the longest and most powerful impulse of the series, as illustrated in Wave 1.  During the 2008 decline, third Waves were consistently 1.5 time the length of Wave one.  They may have a larger or smaller multiple.  the third Waves leading to the all-time high produced Wave threes were 120% of the Waves ones.

7:45 am

SPX futures bounced at the 100-day Moving average at 5948.00 and are retesting the trendline near 6000.00 this morning as a final effort to gain ascendancy above the 50-day at 6006.00. Few recognize the trendline that has an equal or greater importance as a guideline for the uptrend.  The 50-day is beneath Intermediate support/resistance at 6021.00, a possible alternate target.  Should it linger near 6000.00, the SPX rising above yesterday’s high at 6009.42 is possible.  The Cycles Model calls for a resumption of the decline by the weekend with a possible pivot occurring today.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5995.00  Long gamma may begin above 6000.00 while short gamma become strong beneath 5950.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher post-NVDA, though the stock’s reaction was a bit muted with the stock rising ~2% pre-market, a far cry from the 10% swing that was priced in by straddles ahead of earnings (and why both puts and calls will expire worthless). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures rise 0.8%, with all Mag7 stocks higher, and Semis and Fins also stronger. Bond yields are up 5bps from 2s to 30s with USD poised to have its strongest day in 5 sessions as yen drops sharply after stops are triggered around 149.40. Commodites are weaker ex-Energy although WTI remains below $70/bbl. Today’s macro data focus is on Durable/Cap Goods and Jobless data. Notably, both Asian and European stocks are weaker today, prompting JPM to ask if “this the beginning of a rotation back to US TMT?”

VIX futures declined to 17.67 this morning in a correction with a possible target at the mid-Cycles support at 16.68.  The Cycles Model calls for a reversal back to the uptrend around mid-day.

The March 5 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00.  Short gamma resides between 15.00 and 18.00.  Long gamma begins at 20.00 and remains strong to 28.00.

Bitcoin has regained the mid-Cycle support at 83613.70 this morning after a strong challenge beneath it yesterday.  The Cycles Model calls for a resumption of the decline by the weekend followed by a steep decline over the next week.  The Master Cycle low may be found in the week of March 10.

TNX made a low near the mid-Cycle support at 42.22 yesterday.  It may make another probe lower in the next day or so.  However, the weekend may bring a mid-Master Cycle reversal back to the rally mode for the rest of the month.  Today we will see $155 billion of short term T-bills at auction as the last offering of the month is made.

USD futures may have made an early Master Cycle low on Monday as the USD has been gaining elevation since then.  The target at mid-Cycle support at 104.84 has not been met, leaving a slight risk of another probe lower.  We remain neutral, as a buy signal above Intermediate support at 107.69 has not been made.

The Yen is retracing some of tis gains with a possible downside target at the mid-Cycle support at 65.78.  The uptrend may strengthen beginning in March with a Master Cycle high due the week of March 17.   Few see  the risk of a rising currency, especially when loans are taken out in that currency, known as the “carry trade.”  The Yen has already appreciated by over 7% since the beginning of the year.  Some of thos who borrowed on the “carry” may be getting uncomfortable.

Gold futures declined to a new low at 2890.00 this morning.  It is on an aggressive sell signal beneath the Cycle Top at 2943.38.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to the end of March.  A month-long decline may bring gold down to the Cycle Bottom at 2273.10.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

12:42 pm

SPX reversed short of the 50-day Moving Average at 6012.80 and has declined beneath the trendline.  This is a new sell signal for those still long.

10:59 am

SPX is extending its retracement for another brief spell with a probable probe to 6013.00 to 6024.00.  The trendline offered a pause in the bounce, causing a small triangle formation to be followed by the last probe of the bounce.

8:20 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have risen to 5988.90 in the overnight session, on its way to test the trendline near 6000.00 this morning.  The bounce is nearly over.  Yesterday’s momentous decline beneath the trendline  and a new monthly low has fulfilled the trending strength it received, but there may be more to come.  The 100-day offers a modicum of support at 5946.40.  Downside strength may build through the coming weekend with another major downdraft by Monday.  Deutsche Bank notices that Fridays are now the worst day of the week, followed by Mondays, which used to be affected by headline risk.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6000.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6020.00, while short gamma beneath 6000.00.  Short gamma strengthened every 50 points beneath 6000.00.  It is easy to see why dealers are trying to get the SPX above 6000.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, reversing much of yesterday’s drop, and European bourses are at all time high, as the market braces for NVDA earnings after today’s close. As of 7:30am, S&P futures are up 0.6% while Nasdaq futures jump 0.8% as all Mag7 names are higher premarket ex-AAPL, while NVDA rises 2.6% aiding the bid for Semis and signaling a rebound on Wall Street after Tuesday’s drop, fueled by a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence print that stirred fears of an economic downturn. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher but with little reaction to the House passing the blueprint for the next budget that is likely to materially increase the deficit.  President Trump is set to meet Zelenskiy this week to sign an agreement giving the US control over half of the war-battered country’s natural resources. Elsewhere, China plans to start re-capitalizing several of its biggest banks in the coming months while BP announced it will increase its oil and gas production. The global risk-on tone is not extending to commodities where there is weakness across all 3 complexes. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close; data releases include US new home sales for January.”

VIX futures backed down to 18.74 this morning, as SPX finishes its bounce.  Once accomplished, a breakout above the Cycle Top at 23.68 is likely.  Most analysts sit up and take notice of the VIX above its historical midpoint at 25.00, so we may expect more commentary on the VIX very soon.

Tomorrow’s Max Pain lies at 19.00 with short gamma immediately beneath it.  Long gamma bursts forth at 20.00 and remains strong to 28.00.

TNX may be consolidating near its daily low at 42.81, but has further to go in its correction.  A likely target may be the mid-Cycle support at 42.23.  Should it reach its goal by the weekend, a mid-Cycle eversal may take place.  Details are sketchy at the moment, but the mid-Cycle area offers a significant opportunity for a bounce.

ZeroHedge reports, “After one of the strongest 2Y auction on record, the streak of strong coupon sales extended for a second day and despite the continued plunge in yields, which dipped well below 4.30% at one point in the day, today’s sale of $70BN in 5Y paper was flawless, and almost as strong as yesterday’s auction.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.123%, down 20bps from 4.330% last month and the lowest since Sept 24; it also stopped 1bps through the When Issued, the 4th consecutive stop through and the highest since December 2013.”

Bitcoin continues its descent as it approaches the mid-Cycle support at 83495.28.  There may be a bounce in the making, only to retest the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation near 91100.00.  Trending strength may reappear over the weekend,  leading up to a possible panic decline next week.

USD futures continue to consolidate as it corrects down to the mid-Cycle support at 104.83.  The Cycles Model suggests another two weeks of decline prior to a very strong reversal.

The Japanese Yen has broken above its previous high at 67.27.  In doing so, it has caused the Yen carry trade to cost approximately 7.7% more since the beginning of the year due to the Yen appreciation.  So much for a cheap loan that was supposed to bear a .1% interest rate.  While there “may” be a pullback to the mid-Cycle support at 65.78, the trend appears to be gathering strength for a blow-out to the Cycle Top at 70.42 in just a few more weeks.  This may spell the death knell for the Yen carry trade.

Gold futures continued to fall to 2903.39 after yesterday’s strong reversal beneath the Cycle Top support at 2938.00.  This action offers an aggressive sell signal.  This suggests on may reduce exposure to gold.  The Cycles Model suggests a probable decline to the end of March, which may be destructive to long positions.  After beating the drums to buy gold last week, analysts are suddenly silent.

Crude oil may have made its Master Cycle low yesterday at 68.68.  If so, there may be a bounce to the mid-Cycle resistance at 73.45 in the next one to two weeks.  However, that is not the end of the decline.  After the bounce, the probability is high that the decline may resume to mid-April.

ZeroHedge observes, “Oil prices in New York steadied this morning after starting the session at its lowest opening price in two months as a souring economic outlook threatened prospects for energy demand and spurred investors to shun riskier assets.”