The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Sunday, 6:30 pm I have two doctor’s appointments tomorrow and I will be leaving on an extended trip starting on March 5 until March 25. I may have some intermittent moments to jot down my observations, but nothing that I can predict in advance. I am sorry for the inconvenience.
SPX ended its Friday at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its 7-day decline. The retracement probe is either ended or may extend to the 50% retracement level near 6000.00. If so, it may reverse in the first hour on Monday. A lot of investors took Friday afternoon’s reversal as a signal that the decline is over. No so. There is a tremendous amount of resistance at the 6000.0 level, including both the Diagonal trendline and the 50-day Moving Average.. In addition, the Cycles Model infers the decline may continue to the end of March! The late Friday rally took me by surprise. You see, the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation is nearly impermeable. I took my cue from that experience and used the neckline as the final resistance. The Head & Shoulder formation crumbled in the last hour on Friday. Mea culpa! Looking ahead, the Cycles Model offers periods of trending strength this weekend and the following two weekends as well. I may be able to offer more commentary around mid-day on Monday and possibly Tuesday morning.
Monday, 7:30 am
The bounce has now extended to 5989.60 thus far. Goldman warns of a “painful short squeeze” today. However, most of the pain is already over at the 38.2% retracement. There may be an incremental increase lasting an hour or to mid-day. The maximum resistance appears at 6010.00 in what may be termed an expanded flat correction. Long gamma may begin above 6980.00,. However, dealers may not be comfortable chasing long gamma on such a day as this. The Cycles Model calls for high volatility and a possible reversal today.
Bitcoin is up 22% this morning after last week’s dismal performance. It has been pushed back at Intermediate resistance at 95648.00. However, it is likely to go for the 50-day Moving Average and trendline near 97695.00 yet today. The uptrend may have been broken and maximum resistance may lie just above.
Monday 1:20 pm
SPX made the turn in the very first hour of the day. The Cycles inference of possibly a panic down day was correct. It now appears that the decline may gather momentum through the rest of the week. It is now headed toward the 1987 trendline near 5400.00. Another possible support level may be the August 5 low at 5119.26. Should the 1987 trendline be broken, then the August 5 low may be the the month-end target. The saying goes, “The market goes up the escalator, down the elevator.”
The Ag Index is making good headway in its retracement decline. It is now approaching the 50% retracement level. The mid-Cycle support is at 370.53 while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 364.52. It is approaching a good price range for accumulation. , as the next move up may be explosive.
ZeroHedge comments, “”U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has ordered the delay of a new rule updating the definition of “healthy” on food product labels.
The new Food and Drug Administration (FDA) final rule will not go into effect until April 28, a delay from the originally announced implementation date of Feb. 25, Kennedy said in an update on Tuesday.”