The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX has opened near mid-Cycle support/resistance after bouncing off the 200-day Moving Average yesterday. It’s deep in short gamma beneath 5800.00. Dealers would like to see SPX rise above that level. Unfortunately, it may not succeed, as day traders are piling into puts, especially beneath 5750.00. With short gamma as prevalent as it is, there is no need for a catalyst to turn a decline into a rout. Top of the book liquidity has been cut in half since the beginning of the year, especially with leveraged ETF strategies. In addition, CTAs are selling large holdings at the open and at the close. This is no time for being long.
11:00 am
The Ag Index, GKX, has risen above the trendline at 374.00, creating a buy signal. Food prices appear to be heading much higher. This is a “must own” category. The problem isn’t just supply and demand. Supply chains are becoming clogged and broken.
BKX is bouncing from a potential Head & Shoulders neckline. The formation is skewed, but may be legitimate. Consider going short on your most hated bank.
Crude oil has fallen beneath the massive Head & Shoulders neckline at 66.00. Consider shorting/;hedging this commodity as the Cycles Model suggests the decline may run until mid-April.
ZeroHedge observes, “Oil prices extended their losses overnight to the lowest in almost six months as traders wrestle with conflicting signals on the longevity and effects of US tariffs on the country’s two largest external crude suppliers.
A mixed bag from API last night did not help but all eyes on the official data this morning for any signs of life.”