The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7532.90 thus far this morning as Trump’s proposed peace deal lends more support to the bullish outlook.  The Cycles Model agrees, indicating strength in the uptrend until the end of June.  There is a high likelihood of the SPX exceeding 8000.00 in that period.   Liquidity is dismal while hedge funds cover their shorts and retail investors come rushing back.  Demand for leverage is climbing as investors try to take back their losses.

Today’s otions chain shows Max Pain at 7435.00.  Long gamma resides above 7500.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7400.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war.”

NDX futures have vaulted to 30300.00 this morning after two weeks of volatile correction.  It may see 33000.00 by the end of the month.  However, volatility may also be increasing over the next two weeks.

The premarket VIX  plunged to 16.60 this morning on the news of a possible peace agreement.  The Cycles Model anticipates a suppression of the VIX as short covering overtakes the market.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma rules beneath 19.00 while long gamma strengthens above 22.00.

The 10-year US bond yield has fallen beneath Intermediate support at 44.79.  The 51-day Moving Average lies at 44.17.  A break beneath these levels may bring on a further decline through early July.  A possible target for the proposed declie may be the mid-Cycle support at 42.20.

The USD is extending its decline, with a possible support at the 52-day Moving Average at 98.92.  The Cycles Model allows a possible 2-week correction before resuming the uptrend.

Bitcoin may be wrapping up its Master cycle this morning as  the correction nears completion.  Should this be the case, a reversal may take bitcoin lower through the end of July.

Crude oil may be making its final plunge beneath the Triangle formation as the Master Cycle may be closing down, causing oil longs to liquidate.  This may cause a further extension to the decline, making it difficult to know when the bleeding has stopped.  The mid-Cycle support at 74.21 may still be in play.

ZeroHedge observes, “Summary:

• GasBuddy’s U.S. Gas National Avg. Falls Below $4 per gallon 
• AAA’s U.S. Gas National Avg. still slightly Above $4 per gallon (expected to fall) 
• US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Brent and WTI Tumbling”

Gold has made a terrific bounce from Thursday’s low.  Unfortunately, the decline may not be over.  The Model allows for a retest of Thursday’s low in a  steep extended decline, possibly to the Cycle Bottom at 3702.07.  It doesn’t look good for the longs.

Friday’s breakout in the BKX extends the current Master Cycle to the end of June.  The fractal structure is an ending diagonal, signaling an end to the uptrend  soon.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX rose above Intermediate resistance at  7394.06, enabling a possible buy signal.  It remains beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 7454.71, where confirmation of the buy signal exists.  The Cycles Model suggests that volatility may rise early next week.  The current Master Cycle may last to the end of June.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7375.00.  Long gamma lies above 7400.00 while short gamma dwells beneath 7650.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures and global markets are higher, extending their rally while oil hit the lowest level in months following fresh reports that the US and Iran are nearing a provisional agreement to end their war, even if top leadership has yet to sign off.”

VIX declined to 48.51 thus far this morning.  While the Triangle formation appears complete, a tail beneath the trendline is a common occurrence.  We may see VIX retreat back beneath the trendline by the end of the month.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma rules beneath 19.00 while long gamma exists above 20.00, with large pockets of institutional holdings to 140.00.  The longs may be a month early.

The US 10-year Bond Yield declined to Intermediate support at 44.75 this morning.  It may be at a decision point where yields may go higher, should support hold.  Should support hold at the end of day, it may advance to the neckline in due course.  Thus far, TNX has maintained it rising trend.

USD may be taking a break from its rally.  The Cycles Model allows a possible two weeks of consolidation/correction before resuming its uptrend.

Bitcoin may be in the final stage of its consolidation.  A reversal from this point may bring a possible panic decline until its target, 50000.00 or lower, is reached.

Crude oil may have met its Master Cycle low, producing the “tail” on the Triangle.  A rally above the lower trendline near 87.00 may produce a buy signal.  The Cycles Model suggests a rally that may last to mid-August.  Don’t expect lower gasoline prices to last…

TheEpochTimes observes, “In California, Alaska, Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington, gasoline prices exceed $5 per gallon.

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping from $4.56 per gallon on May 21 to $4.12 per gallon on Thursday.”

Gold may have made its Master Cycle low yesterday.  While the timing of the low matches the profile, there may be a final probe lower early next week.  Which ever occurs, the next trend may be considerably higher.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures dipped to 7224.92, beneath Tuesday’s corrective low at 7237.85.  It is uncertain whether SPX may go lower, as it has bounced back to 7300.00.  Meanwhile, critical support lies at the 52-day Moving Average at 7180.39.     The Cycles Model suggests there may be approximately two more weeks of possible rally out of this low in this irregular zig-zag formation.  The market may be becoming more chaotic and volatile, catching many investors wrong-footed again.  Trending strength picks up next week.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 7375.00.  Long gamma may begin above 7400.00.  Short gamma is strong beneath 7350.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher led by tech and small caps, with traders buying the dip in stocks as a swift conclusion to the latest round of US strikes against Iran raised expectations that talks over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will get back on track.”

The premarket VIX declined to 20.53 in the overnight session.  It may rise to the Cycle Top resistance at 25.80.  However, Wave (E) is often called a rogue for doing the unexpected.  A new low may await in early July.

The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50.  Short gamma resides between 16.00 and 20.00.  Long gamma arises above 22.00 and has heavy institutional presence to 140.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is riding on the Cycle Top support at 45.30.  Above that, an argument may be made for a surge to the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation near 46.75.  The Cycles Model suggests that, should TNX go higher, the trend may last though mid-July.

ZeroHedge observes, “After yesterday’s mediocre 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury held a stellar 10Y reopening (of cusip QQ7).

The sale of $39 billion in 9 Year-11 Month paper priced at a high yield of 4.538%, up from 4.468% last month, and 0.1bp through the 4.539% When Issued. This was the first stop through following 4 sequential tails for the tenor.”

USD is probing higher, toward the Cycle Top resistance at 100.53 as it completes its Master Cycle.  The Cycle s Model anticipates a possible two-week correction before resuming its upward trend.

Uncertainty reigns in Bitcoin as it continues to consolidate.  The Cycles Model claims the decline hasn’t finished yet.  Once the breakdown begins, bitcoin may decline forcefully for up to two weeks.  A realistic target may be round number support at 50000.00, but it may go lower.

Crude oil has resumed its decline toward the bottom Triangle trendline.  This time it may extend the tail beneath the Triangle formation mentioned in earlier blogs.  There is currently no indication that the tail may extend very far.  Should the decline extend, it may possibly be complete in 1-3 days.

Gold continues its decline, testing round number support at 4000.00.  The Cycle is in overtime, but that is where it may be the most dangerous.  I have previously mentioned that a decline to 3800.00 is possible.  It still is, especially as a panic may develop next week.  Central banks may be trading gold for oil.

Th eAg Index consolidates midway toward the mid-Cycle resistance at 360.40.  Activity may pick up early next week, but the new Master cycle may be short as it completes the declining fractal.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures spent the overnight session pinballing between Intermediate resistance at 7378.00 and round number support at 7300.00.  The correction may be complete after a retest of the low at 7237.85.  Failing to go lower, the upsurge may resume.  A test of the 52-day Moving Average is still possible, but fading fast.  On June 3 I speculated that, should the SPX keep its former pace, it may achieve 7800.00 to 8100.00 by the end of June.  That speculation may still be valid, despite this week’s correction.  Today’s CPI may influence the outcome of today’s direction.  A surge above resistance at 7384.00 may indicate the bounce may have legs.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 7400.00.  Long gamma may strengthen above 74535.00 while short gamma lurks beneath 7375.00.

ZeroHedge  reports, “Markets continue to trade with a risk-off bias this morning, with equity futures and macro credit weaker, rates selling across the curve, as the USD and oil sensitive currencies outperform.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the 52-day Moving Average at 19.52.  The bounce may have run its course yesterday, allowing the VIX to test new lows by the end of the month.  The target appears to be the lower Triangle trendline near 15.00.  However, Month-end action may produce a tail beneath the trendline.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is testing the Cycle Top support at 45.25 this morning.  A further rally from here may allow TNX to advance toward the neckline near 46.87, cementing the rising trend.

ZeroHedge remarks, “With expectations of a 4%-plus print, all eyes are on this morning’s CPI report as we move past April’s shutdown-related distortions.

Headline CPI rose 0.5% MoM (as expected) in May, lifting prices 4.2% YoY (also as expected). The first 4%-plus print since April 2023..”

Also reported by ZeroHedge,”With markets thrown in turmoil following Trump’s threat to restart war against Iran in retaliation for downing a US Apache helicopter, it wasn’t clear how today’s $58 billion 3 year auction would go. In the end, it wasn’t great, or terrible: a little tail, but besides that all metrics were relatively solid. ”

USD continues to consolidate, taking its cue from TNX.  Normally a pullback may be warranted for a week or two after a Master Cycle high.  However, pressure to go higher may limit the depth of a pullback.

Bitcoin has resumed its decline after a 8.56% correction.  The Cycles Model suggests the following decline may be quite lively over the next two weeks.  A probable target may be round number support at 50000.00.  A decline to 45000.00 may be possible, but less likely.

Crude oil bounced after making a probable Master Cycle low at the Triangle trendline near 86.00 yesterday.   Should this be correct, the Cycles Model suggests a rally to follow lasting to mid-August.  A small tail shows in the chart.  An alternate view is calling for a longer tail.

OilPrice.com observes, “India is scrambling to contain the economic and financial impact of the worst oil supply disruption in history as analysts say the high oil prices would continue to weigh on the Indian currency, economic growth, and public finances as long as supply is choked at the Strait of Hormuz.” Continue reading →

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7445.40, challenging the Cycle Top resistance at 7428.67, then eased back.  The downside fractal becomes complete beneath Friday’s low at 7368.63.  A likely target for this decline may be the 52-day Moving Average at 7149.92, the next layer of support.  A secondary target may be the mid-Cycle support at 6894.60.    The correction may be complete in 2-3 days.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 7450.00.  Long gamma strengthens above 7475.00 while short gamma rules beneath 7425.00.  SPX is squarely in short gamma which may affect today’s outcome.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher as Monday’s US stock gains extend into today’s trading with both tech and small caps outperforming as the AI theme resumes its global surge and US/Iran deal optimism is back (on the back of the now daily optimistic comments from Trump) broadening the rally.”

The premarket VIX declined to 17.96, but bounced back near the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.68.  Should it rise above that resistance, and the 52-day Moving Average at 19.52, it may rally to the Cycle Top at 25.76.  A secondary target may be the trendline near 30.00.  Wave (E) must be a zig-zag, implying that, once the bounce is complete, VIX may turn back dow to make a new low.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows a small short gamma holdout at 15.00.  Long gamma begins at 16.00 and goes to 30.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may be at a crossroads.  It may proceed  higher toward the weekly Cycle Top and trendline before resuming its decline in an expanded Triangle formation which can be traced to October 2023.  As seen in the weekly chart, TNX may have another decline to the lower trendline, possibly lower, at some point soon.

The USD Index reversed rom its Master Cycle high on Monday.  The new Master Cycle may go coast-to-coast, frim the Cycle top to the Cycle Bottom in the next three weeks.  What appears to be a calming effect in the USD may be a false signal, calming the markets.

Bitcoin may have resumed its decline this morning.  A further easing beneath 62000.00 may confirm the final leg of the decline.  The breakdown on June 6 indicates the bitcoin may probe lower, possibly to round number support at 50000.00.

Crude oil continues its decline to a new low,  possibly by the end of the week.  A minimal target may be just beneath the May 29 low at 86.35.  However, there is a  possibility of a long “tail” which may go as far as the mid-Cycle support at 73.74.  The tail on (E) may be an emotional surge, ignoring the strategic reserves going dry and the delays of bringing oil-in-the-ground to the final product in the marketplace.

Gold may be in the final stages of its decline, but it isn’t finished yet.  The minimal decline may be to round number support at 4200.00.  However, there are large players at work.  Central banks have been shown to give up their gold reserves in exchange for oil, especially at lower prices.  The sell-off may have the potential of sorely disappointing gold longs.

The Ag Index is rising from its Master Cycle low.  Normally, this would be presented as a buy-the-dip opportunity.  However, there are several features that indicate the GKX may go lower.  The first is that it has gone down much further than anticipated, suggesting a larger degree structure may be at work.   Second, major trends do not end in zig-zag formations.  Finally, the successor Master Cycle has only to the end of June for completion.  Once the bounce is complete, it may decline to or beneath the Cycle Bottom at 338.77.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7344.70 over the weekend, then bounced to 7446.40, challenging the Cycle Top resistance at 7421.00.  Despite the 100+ point bounce in the futures, the decline may not be over.  An open beneath the Cycle Top may allow the decline to continue.  The next support may be the 52-day Moving Average at 7133.58.  Korean stocks are still in meltdown mode, with a possible sympathetic reaction in the US.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain near 7470.00.  Long gamma may begin above 7500.00 while short gamma resides beneath 7450.00.  Large walls of puts lie scattered down to 7150.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stocks futures rebounded and oil pared much of its overnight gains, following a declaration from Iran that military operations against Israel ended after the biggest military escalation between Iran and Israel overnight.”

Today’s premarket VIX declined to 18.75, possibly testing the mid-cycle support at 18.66.  A bounce here may send the VIX to the Cycle Top at 25.76.  However, the Cycles Model shows no particular strength after Friday’s aggressive move, suggesting the bounce may not be long lasting.

The June 10 options chain shows virtually no short gamma.  Long gamma begins above 16.00 and is strongly clustered beneath 25.00.

The US 10-Year Bond Yield opened above the Cycle Top at 45.14 this morning.  Trending strength may reappear today, sending TNX toward the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  However, should TNX fall beneath the Cycle Top, it may temporarily visit now corrective lows.

USD has been repelled from round number resistance (100.00), leaving the Master Cycle nearly complete.  The Cycles Model may allow a final probe to the Cycle Top at 100.47 in the next day or two.  Overhead resistance is strong at 100.80, the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  The Model also suggests a low by the end of June.

Bitcoin bounced to a high of 64195.00 on Sunday and is consolidating near the high today.  While it bounced at the Cycle Bottom at 58853.00, the decline may not be over.

Zerohedge comments, “After this week’s bloodbath…

Bitcoin is now flashing its most oversold signal since 2018, raising the odds of a relief rebound toward $70,000 in the coming weeks.”

Crude oil completed a bounce this morning after Friday’s decline, then gave back most of the gains.  This week may see increased volatility along with possible new lows being made beneath the Triangle trendline.

Gold extended its master Cycle low to 4270.62 this morning.  A possible target may be round number support at 4200.00.  However, should central banks wish to replenish their oil reserves, the sale of gold may be a likely avenue to support that effort.  A move beneath the March low is possible.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range thus far, anticipating the BLS Employment Situation Survey for May.  The current fractal may be a zig-zag, suggesting a further decline may be anticipated.  The minimum target appears to be Intermediate support at 7351.00.  Lower targets present themselves, all valid in this formation.  The Cycles Model allows a possible week of decline.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7570.00.  Long gamma strengthens above 7600.00 while shor gamma resides beneath 7550.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower amid fresh underperformance of tech. If the premarket weakness persists, the S&P 500 is set to break a historic weekly run of gains as the AI trade takes another leg lower this time driven by the cartoonish Kospi index, with investors also expecting payrolls data to affirm that interest rates will stay higher for longer.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating in place, also awaiting the BLS report.  A likely scenario is that the VIX may rise to the 52-day Moving Average at 19.57 before resuming its decline to the lower Triangle trendline.  It is possible to see an extended “tail” beneath the trendline as the formation and Master Cycle continue to the end of the month.

The June 10 VIX options chain shows a solitary nest of short gamma at 15.00.  Long gamma may begin above 16.00 but only extends to 28.00.

USD may be at the end of its consolidation.  The Cycles Model suggests a probable breakdown starting today and lasting to the end of the month.  A possible target for this decline may be the Cycle Bottom at 96.95.  Some fireworks may be anticipated over the weekend.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is moving aggressively higher after the BLS news release.  The Cycles Model indicates we may expect more strength in this move early next week.  The Head & Shoulders neckline may be the next level for a major outbreak with knock-on results.

ZeroHedge remarks, “With Wall Street expecting a strong – not great – number, and a modest decline from April’s 115K, moments ago the BLS reported a shocker: in May the US added 172K jobs…

… not only a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate of 88K, but also above the highest estimate of 125K.”

Bitcoin made a new low this morning as it prepares to challenge the Cycle Bottom at 59410.00.  The Cycles Model shows no sign of an immediate breakdown as trending strength may not return until mid-month. Once the February low is broken, the next level of support lies near 50000.00.

Crude oil resumes its descent to the lower Triangle trendline, possibly beneath it.  The final probe in a Triangle often leaves a “tail” beneath the boundary of the formation.  Considering the presence of trending strength next week, the ultimate target may be the mid-Cycle support at 73.45.  This may be the final shakeout of weaker hands in oil.

ZeroHedge remarks, “If it was indeed Trump’s intention to starve Iran’s economy of oil export revenue, the plan may just be working: Iran’s oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May as the US naval blockade has succeeded in choking off crude shipments and leave tens of millions of barrels stranded at sea.”

Gold is threatening the May 28 low this morning, suggesting another probe that may approach 4200.00 in the next few days as speculators abandon their holdings.  Gold may resume its rally thereafter, as the prospect of increases.

The Ag index may have made its Master Cycle low yesterday.  Today it remains above it, although still appearing bearish.  However, Agriculture is anticipating a major push higher.  The possibility of a further push down to early next week remains.  However, by mid-week the reversal maay be clear.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7512.90 this morning, beneath the 7-month upper trendline.  Support lies at the Cycle Top at 7400.63, where a bounce may develop.  The uptrend is not broken.  A possible break in the uptrend may lie at Intermediate support at 7336.00.   We may expect weakness for a week or so, then a resumption of the uptrend.  Two down candles have commentators speculating that the market may be suffering from exhaustion.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7565.00.  Long gamma begins above 7600.00 while short gamma is strong beneath 7530.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are weaker, dragged lower by Tech after a disappointing outlook from Broadcom triggered doubts that the blistering rally in technology shares had gone too far, a move exacerbated by euphoric positioning.”

The premarket VIX is beginning to rise out of its consolidation, reaching 16.80 this morning.  There is no sign of panic in the price movement

The June 10 options chain shows a solitary spike of short gamma at 15.00.  Long gamma begins at 16.00 but only extends to 25.00.  There is no great expectation here.

The US 10-year Bond Yield retreated from its Cycle Top resistance this morning, continuing its consolidation.   A decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average signals a further decline.  A possible target may be either round number support at 43.00 or the mid-Cycle support at 42.02.  The Master Cycle may be extended for another week.

Bitcoin extended its decline even lower, threatening the Cycle Bottom at 59610.00.  I withdrew the prior Master Cycle To May 25, as it matches the normal parameters at the 52-day Moving Average.  Should it continue to decline, the new Master Cycle may extend to the week of June 22.  Should BTC take out the Cycle Bottom, a possible target may be near 50000.00.

Crude oil reversed at the 52-day Moving Average at 97.32 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a week-long decline, with strength, as today’s reversal indicates.  Triangles commonly have “tails” at the completion of Wave E .  The bottom Triangle trendline may be exceeded in this decline.  A possible maximum decline may target the mid-Cycle support at 73.30.

Gold futures rose above their mid-Cycle support at 4474.27 and may be challenging the upper declining trendline near 4550.00.  A breakout may be imminent.  Intermediate resistance lies at 4607.79, while the 52-day Moving Average is at 4622.48, adding confirmation to a buy signal.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible rally to mid-July.

ZeroHedge remarks, “First the good news: according to the latest World Gold Council update, central banks, a key pillar of the bullish case for gold, have returned to adding holdings in April after notable selling in March sent the price of the precious metal tumbling.”

The Agriculture Index may be wrapping up its Master Cycle low in a panic mode.  Weaker hands are being squeezed mercilessly.  Are margins being called, or it there a big player tring to corner the market?  The cycles Model suggests a new rally may arise out of this debacle that may last to the end of June.

ZeroHedge comments, “By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Moring!

SPX futures remained fairly constant above the upper trendline at 7580.00.  The trendline is advancing at roughly seven points per day.   At the current pace, SPX may be advancing at about 11 points per day.  At this rate, SPX may reach 7800.00 to 8100.00 by the end of June, the anticipated termination of the current Master Cycle.  There are many variables at work, so this is merely a projection, not a guarantee.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7600.00.  Long gamma begins at 7620.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7595.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are mixed as oil prices, bond yields, and USD move higher in response to the latest overnight attacks in the Middle East with no public progress on a deal.”

The premarket VIX continues to consolidate in place.  Today is options expiration, which may keep it glued to the present position.  The Cycles Model calls for a short rally, which may be stopped near the 52-week Moving Average at 19.94 or the Cycle Top at 25.74.  If so, the VIX  may have one more plunge to new lows beneath the lower trendline by the end of June.

The June 10 options chain has virtually no short gamma.  Long gamma begins above 16.00 and occupies the space to 25.00.  What fear there is, is subdued.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has tested the Cycle Top at 44.99 this morning without a breakout this morning.    Should the Cycle Top resistance hold, TNX may probe lower  with the 52-day Moving Average at 43.96 a possible target.  Friday’s low was early and the Fractal structure may not be complete to the downside.  Once the fractal is complete within the next few days, TNX may rise to challenge the head & Shoulders neckline.  The first surge of strength may come early next week.

The USD is on the rebound from Friday’s possible Master Cycle low.  However, should it not make a new high today, it may probe lower to complete the correction.  The Cycle Bottom, currently at 96.92 may provide the final support.

Bitcoin may have made the final extension of its Master Cycle this morning at 65381.37.  Having no underlying asset base, bitcoin is more subject to speculative excesses than normal behavioral patterns.  The decline is now corrective, implying that Bitcoin must go higher.  The two main resistance lines are at the mid-Cycle resistance at 78260.00. and the Cycle Top at 96641.00.   An anomalous decline may change the outlook.

Crude oil may have been repelled by the 52-day Moving Average at 97.41 this morning.  Should the resistance hold, crude may resume its decline, with strength, to the middle of June.  Fractal E may exceed the lower trendline of the Triangle formation at 85.00.  A possible target for this decline may be the mid-Cycle support at 73.13.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

9:39 am

The Ag Index may be landing at its final Master Cycle low near the mid-Cycle support at 360.82.  This provides an opportunity to buy ag commodities and companies at a reasonably low entry point.  Prices have been beaten down enough that many producers have cut back or left the business altogether.  Shortages loom.  Prices may skyrocket.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Asian rice prices logged their biggest monthly gain in nearly two decades in May, as a Gulf energy shock collides with an expected El Niño event later this year. The spike adds to the mounting risks of a broader food price shock that could emerge as soon as six months from now.

Any time rice prices spike, it is a major concern because the grain feeds more than half the world’s population, estimated at 3.5 to 4 billion people.”

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures remained beneath 7600.00 overnight, declining to 7564.60, beneath the trendline.  The Trading Cycle rally may be over, but the potential ensuing decline may meet its first support at the Cycle Top 7373.93, with final support at the 52-day Moving Average at 7060.25.  There is room in the current Master Cycle for a week-long decline before resuming its probe higher to the end of June.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7600.00.  Long gamma strengthens above 7620.00 while short gamma gains strength beneath 7570.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futs are weaker but well off their overnight lows as the US is set to lag its global peers; according to JPM investors will need to watch to see if there is a beginning of a larger rotation similar to Jan-Feb or perhaps a slight pullback following the US’s multi-week run.”

The premarket VIX consolidated above the Master Cycle low this morning.  It is due for a bounce, but may be resisted  at the 52-day Moving Average or the Cycle Top at 25.74.  The Wave (E) fractal may have another downward probe by the end of June.  There currently is no fear of the downside in the market.

The June 10 options chain shows a single bundle of shorts at 15.00 and very modest calls above 20.00.  Nothing to report here.

The US 10-year Bond Yield shows a likely final probe, extending the Master cycle lower today, completing the corrective fractal.  TNX is soon to be racing higher, with the Head & Shoulders formation in sight.  The neckline may be breached in another week, as the resumed rally gains strength.  The new Master Cycle may rally into August.

The USD remains above the 52-day Moving Average, awaiting the “go ahead” signal from TNX.  It also shows momentum gaining strength over the next week.  A breakout above 99.54 may propel the USD toward the Head & Shoulders formation.

Bitcoin is nearing the outer limit of extensions to its Master Cycle.  The downside fractal is complete as a correction, suggesting an imminent reversal.

Crude oil may have another probe to the 52-day Moving Average at 95.61in the next day or so.  The Cycles Model shows Wednesday as a day of strength in crude before making a final probe beneath the lower Triangle trendline.  Wave E’s tend to be roguish in their behavior, zig-zagging wildly like a loose cannon in a storm.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Last night, the Abaxx Markets’ Jeff Currie and Veriten’s Arjun Murti joined Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for a ZeroHedge Debate on what the oil market is getting wrong.

Surprise surprise… the EU is not looking good. But the U.S. may be in trouble too. Currie doubled down on his reserves-to-run-dry-by-July call.”

Gold continues to bounce off its mid-Cycle support at 4465.00 this morning.  However, the Downside fractal is not complete.  It may have approximately a week to complete the fractal.  A minimal Master Cycle decline may go to 4000.00, while there is a probable trendline that may extend to 3800.00.