The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Moring!
SPX futures remained fairly constant above the upper trendline at 7580.00. The trendline is advancing at roughly seven points per day. At the current pace, SPX may be advancing at about 11 points per day. At this rate, SPX may reach 7800.00 to 8100.00 by the end of June, the anticipated termination of the current Master Cycle. There are many variables at work, so this is merely a projection, not a guarantee.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7600.00. Long gamma begins at 7620.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7595.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are mixed as oil prices, bond yields, and USD move higher in response to the latest overnight attacks in the Middle East with no public progress on a deal.”
The premarket VIX continues to consolidate in place. Today is options expiration, which may keep it glued to the present position. The Cycles Model calls for a short rally, which may be stopped near the 52-week Moving Average at 19.94 or the Cycle Top at 25.74. If so, the VIX may have one more plunge to new lows beneath the lower trendline by the end of June.
The June 10 options chain has virtually no short gamma. Long gamma begins above 16.00 and occupies the space to 25.00. What fear there is, is subdued.
The US 10-year Bond Yield has tested the Cycle Top at 44.99 this morning without a breakout this morning. Should the Cycle Top resistance hold, TNX may probe lower with the 52-day Moving Average at 43.96 a possible target. Friday’s low was early and the Fractal structure may not be complete to the downside. Once the fractal is complete within the next few days, TNX may rise to challenge the head & Shoulders neckline. The first surge of strength may come early next week.
The USD is on the rebound from Friday’s possible Master Cycle low. However, should it not make a new high today, it may probe lower to complete the correction. The Cycle Bottom, currently at 96.92 may provide the final support.
Bitcoin may have made the final extension of its Master Cycle this morning at 65381.37. Having no underlying asset base, bitcoin is more subject to speculative excesses than normal behavioral patterns. The decline is now corrective, implying that Bitcoin must go higher. The two main resistance lines are at the mid-Cycle resistance at 78260.00. and the Cycle Top at 96641.00. An anomalous decline may change the outlook.
Crude oil may have been repelled by the 52-day Moving Average at 97.41 this morning. Should the resistance hold, crude may resume its decline, with strength, to the middle of June. Fractal E may exceed the lower trendline of the Triangle formation at 85.00. A possible target for this decline may be the mid-Cycle support at 73.13.