The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:10 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 7573.80, a nominal new low. The Cycles Model had suggested that the September 10 low may have been the ideal date for a Master Cycle low. However, the Fractal Construct may reach completion today, which is allowed by the Cycles Model as an extension that completes the Fractal formation. In fact, the Fractal construct may allow a decline to 7550.00! Thus time and price must both be met to allow a reversal. In the meantime, the old favorites are being traded in for new models.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower – but well off session lows thanks to some well-time oil sell orders just before US traders walked in to work – as bond yields continue to make new highs, with both Nasdaq and Russell lagging the S&P which feels like more de-risking into tomorrow’s Fed release.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.24. While elevated, this is not (equities)bear market behavior, especially after putting in the Master cycle high on September 10. The Cycles Model may allow a 3-4 week decline toward the lower Trading Channel trendlinenear 12.50.
The US 10-year Bond Yield futures rose to 50.47 thid morning, while the cash market topped out at 50.14. The yields are challenging the FOMC meeting as I write. It is believed that the stated the Fed rules show that the Fed Rate at 3.50-3.75 should be at 3.79 to 6.01. The prognosis is that the Fed may only raise rates to 3.75-4.00, leaving the Fed well behind the market. The Cycles Model calls for a reversal, but it may not occur until the FOMC minutes are released. The aftermath may be a 3-week correction down as far as the 52-day Moving Average at 46.84.
The US Dollar Index is consolidating this morning above Intermediate support at 99.41. It is on a buy signal that may last to mid-October. The Cycles Model shows increasing strength through this weekend.
Crude oil is in a correcting pattern that may evolve into a new surge toward the Cycle Top at 111.83. The Cycle Top may not be the final target for this Master Cycle. The next target may be the February high, as there are four more weeks to the Cycle terminus.
ZeroHedge observes, “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Samara region, about 75 miles west of Samara and 466 miles southeast of Moscow. The strike comes days after President Trump urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian refineries, as average US retail diesel prices jumped above $6 a gallon and alarming disruptions to global refining capacity threaten fuel supplies ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.”
Gold may have made its master Cycle low yesterday at 4253.71, testing the 52-day Moving Average at 4264.77. A reversal may have been set in motion that may last 3-4 weeks. A possible target may be the mid-Cycle resistance at 4554.56.
The Ag Index may have reversed at the Cycle Top support at 424.54 nearing a possible end to the correction. The Cycles Model anticipates a ossible surge in volatility that may reverse the direction. If so, the Ag Index may rally to the end of November.