The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:50 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures challenged the 52-day Moving Average and trendline at 7602.88 this morning, bouncing back above it. This is causing consternation among traders and hedge funds that have been buyers 10 of the 11 last weeks. SPX did not decline beneath Thursday’s low at 7580.06. The Cycles Model favors the low made last Thursday as the Cycle bottom. However, the next few days may be borderline, testing the low.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are sliding, dragged by fears of a possible AI development slowdown as well as higher oil prices (Brent > 108), though bond yields are not reacting yet (10Y yield still under 5%).”
NDX futures declined to 28804.50 this morning, beneath the lower Triangle trendline near 2900.00. Should the Triangle be valid, today’s action has created a “tail” that is common to the final probe within that formation. The probe lower may be perceived by many as a breakout/down. While Thursday’s low in the SPX fit the parameters of the Master Cycle to perfection, today’s low in the NDX also qualifies to complete the Master cycle.
The premarket VIX rose to match Friday’s high at 18.17, but did not exceed it. A decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average may offer a sell signal. Should this be so, the Cycles Model implies a possible month-long decline to lower values in the VIX.
The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 49.85, matching, but not excceding, Thursday’s high. A decline from this point may confirm the Master Cycle and an approximate three-week correction. A possible Cup-with-Handle formation may be in the making, with a substantial rally above the lip.
The US Dollar rose above its mid-Cycle resistance at 99.20 this morning, confirming buy signal. The Cycles Model infers that the rally may last another 4 weeks with the Cycle Top/trendline as an initial possible target.
Crude oil forged ahead, creating a new high. The Cycle Top at 111.74 may be in sight, as ther is still time in this Cycle to go higher. What it does at or Above the Cycle Top may tell us what could be in store in the future.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Brent crude futures jumped overnight after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks last week, threatening a critical route for bypassing the highly contested Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a loss of what could amount to 4% of global supply.”
Additionally, ZeroHedge warns, “As of Monday morning, AAA’s national average retail diesel price topped $6.23 a gallon as a global refining crisis sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war and compounded by the Gulf conflict sent the price of the most critical fuel powering the industrial world skyrocketing.”
Gold declined to 4266.00 this morning, which may have complete the current Master Cycle. This may allow a possible bounce that may last a few weeks. The bounce may propel gold to its mid-Cycle resistance at 4554.67 in that time.
The Ag Index may have bounced off the 52-day Moving Average at 423.61 this morning. Should that be correct, it may exceed the neckline of the revised Head & Shoulders formation. A new formation target has been calculated. Should this analysis be correct, the new Master Cycle may extend to the end of November.
Bitcoin may be making a brief correction after having declined beneath its support low at 76300.00. Cycle resistance lies at the 80000.00 trendline. The possible downtrend may be confirmed by a possible panic decline starting as early as tomorrow.
BKX may have broken its trendline at 186.00. Should it not recover above the trendline, it may degenerate into a panic decline by the weekend. A dceline beneath the prior low at 103.48 may confirm this observation.