The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
11:15 am
Good morning!
SPX has risen off its Master Cycle ow t his morning, a possible beginning of a 5-week rally to a new all-time high. The Cycle Top resistance is currently at 7933.17 while the upprer Diagonal trendline is near 8000.00. There is a strong likelihood of a throw-over beyond 8000.00. Higher interest rates may be temporarily damping animal spirits. But efforts are being made to keep interest rates in check.
ZeroHedge made this report early this morning.”Futures are higher thanks to an overnight retreat in oil prices (which is unlikely to hold now that Houthi rebels effectively control the entire Red Sea) and bond yields which track oil tick for tick, but the tone could quickly shift with the week’s biggest catalyst, August CPI data, due before the cash open.”
Laater, after the CPI print , ZeroHedge commented, “Following fuel-driven jump in Producer Prices, consensus was for a concomitant jump MoM in Consumer prices this morning, after last month’s decline as energy prices have rebounded (though we warned that amid all the interventionist-y chatter, nothing would surprise us less than ‘cool’ print to offset the PPI scare).
And analysts were right with headline CPI rising 0.4% MoM (exactly as expected) – biggest MoM since May – but prices rose 3.5% YoY (in line with expectations and flat to the prir month)…”
VIX calmed down consierably, beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 16.16 and giving a sell signal.
The US 10-year Bond Yield rose to 5.005 early this morning, but the cash market topped out at 49.85 terminating the ageing Master Cycle. The Cycles Model offers approximately 3 weeks of relief, allowing TNX to decline to the Head & Shoulders neckline at 47.00.
Crude oil futures tumbles this morning in a mid-Cycle correction. Support may be found near 90.00, but crude may go lower. Strength may return in the latter half of September.
Gold may be putting in its Master Cycle low this morning as it tests the 52-day Moving Average at 4254.06. There is a possibility of an extension into next week, so the position is neutral.
The Ag Index is probing last Thursday’s Master Cycle low, with the result yet uncertain. Should the low hold, a reversal may be imminent. There would be a cleaner signal if GKX touched the tneckline. However, an aggressive buy signal may be in play if it goes higher.
Bitcoin slipped beneath its previous low at 76300.00 this morning, then raced toward the trendline near 80000.00. This move may confirm the sell signal that may last to late October. The Cycle Bottom at 56793.00 may be the current target.