May 14, 2021

9:15 am

GKX stalled at the mid-Cycle support at 442.41 yesterday, suggesting a bounce may be imminent.  That suggests the correction may be an expanded formation, allowing GKX to move even higher.  The Cycles Model shows an unusual strength in the next week, which supports higher food prices.  Then there is the following article…

ZeroHedge reports, “Earlier this week, in a routine bridge inspection, an engineer climbed onto the section of the Interstate 40 bridge over the Mississippi River and spotted a massive fracture in the frame that resulted in the immediate shutdown of the bridge on Wednesday. Traffic is being rerouted to Interstate 55 Memphis & Arkansas Bridge, creating traffic jams in the Memphis area. On the Mississippi River, the situation is much worse. Hundreds of barrages are piling up on either side of the bridge as the US Coast Guard has closed the critical waterway.

After a routine inspection, officials with the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) announced that the Hernando de Soto Bridge would be closed due to a crack on the bottom side of the bridge truss. ”


7:20 am

NDX futures reached a high of 13259.50 this morning, a mere 26% retracement of the decline from April 29.  The bounce may be over or nearly so, since retracement Wave (c) equals retracement Wave (a) at 13271.00.  Should the retracement extend, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is just above the 50-day Moving Average at 13359.58.


The NDX Hi-Lo closed at -161.00, clearly indicating massive selling in the NDX.  This indicator tells us the weakness, if not outright panic selling, may continue.


SPX futures reached an overnight high of 4137.88, revisiting the Broadening Wedge trendline for the third time.  A standard retracement Wave (c) equals retracement Wave (a) at 4159.00.  A 50% retracement occurs at 4147.17.  A 61.8% retracement occurs near Short-term resistance at 4168.61, should an extra push be contemplated.

ZeroHedge reports, “US index futures rose with for a second day alongside global markets as a continued drop in commodity prices helped ease fears about inflation risks. Treasuries advanced, cryptocurrencies rebounded from a Thursday rout while the dollar slumped. After a bruising week that saw the biggest one day drop for the S&P since February, higher S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts signaled a market recovery was gaining momentum.

The three main U.S. stock indexes snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday after better-than-expected weekly jobless claims data while ignoring the highest annual PPI increase on record. At 7:15a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 150 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 26 points, or 0.63%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 132 points, or 1.00%.”


The NYSE Hi-Lo Index closed beneath thee lower trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top, indicating another sell signal.  The target of this decline lies beneath the March 2020 low of -2375.00.


VIX futures made an overnight low of 21.91, remaining above the 50-day Moving Average at 19.79.   The retreat of the VIX has lulled investor sensibilities to  the breakout, which promises more to come.  Some see the danger, but it does not appear imminent to them.

ZeroHedge observes, “There is a high likelihood that in the ultimate bubble crash of the global financial system that is going to occur sometime over the next 5 to 10 years, that we take out the 100 level in the VIX Market. The central banks and governments around the world have kicked this can as far down the road as is possible given the fundamentally poor circumstances facing the global financial system. We are at terminal lift off at this stage from a historical timeframe standpoint, and it will not take much to light the final fuse regarding the ultimate destruction of global finance as we know it. ”


TNX appears to be lingering just above the 50-day Moving Average at 16.29 as it gathers strength for the next push higher.  Treasuries appear to be especially vulnerable to a sell-off over the weekend and early next week, according to the Cycles Model.

ZeroHedge reports, “In stark contrast to yesterday’s stellar 10Y auction, moments ago the Treasury concluded its refunding issuance when it sold $27BN in 30Y paper in an ugly, tailing auction that was disappointing in every category.

The High Yield of 2.395% was the highest since November 2019, and tailed the When Issued 2.377% by 1.8bps, the biggest tail since August 2020. The bid to cover of 2.219 was a big drop from 2.466 last month, and also well below the 6-auction average 2.36%.”


USD futures continue their consolidation this morning.  Tuesday’s Master Cycle low appears to be the real thing, despite being a week early.  Options week appears to be ready to give the USD a double boost as short sellers cover.  The next Master Cycle high may not occur until early July, giving the rally time to reach its Broadening Wedge target at 96.00.


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