The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:57 am

BKX declined to a low of 167.48 this morning.  It may be testing the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 165.86.  The problem is that Trending Strength may appear this weekend in the form of a panic decline.  The jolt in yields may have damaged the outlook for banks, especially during their earnings reporting season.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7732.10 this mornng in a consolidation to work off an overbought condition.  The fractal structure calls for at least one probe higher, but it may extend beyond that.  The Cycle To resistance resides at 8030.39 this morning, climbing 8-10 points per day.  A high of 8100.00 may be within reach for this Master Cycle.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are sliding from Tuesday’s record close as oil climbs back above $100, global bond yields resume their ascent and the AI bubble debate makes an unwelcome comeback.”

The premarket VIX bounced at the Triangle trendline to a morning high at 16.01.  Despite the oil blockafe and threats of war, the VIX remains relatively calm.  VIX itself has become volatile as it shakes out positions that have no conviction.  The fractal structure allows a further decline to the lower trading channel trendline near 13.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures stretched to 53.56 while the cash market opened this morning at 53.54.  These highs have not been seen since April 2002.  The Master Cycle may be extending.  The primary view is that yields may be in an extended correction that may yet decline to the neckline at 50.00.

Zerohedge observes, “With bond traders still bruised from the catastrophic, “mega-tailing” 5Y auction two weeks ago, some were looking toward this week’s restart of Treasury coupon auctions with trepidation, although after the brutal selloff in recent weeks, there probably was enough concession to avoid another disaster.”

The US Dollar is threatening to extend the Master Cycle today beyond the current high at 102.53.  Trending strength may be appearing today.  If so, it may extend the current Master Cycle to mid-October.  The fractal structure may allow the USD to rise further before a correction takes place.

The Euro has extended its decline this morning.  The Cycles Model sugests the current Master Cycle may last to mid-October with a possible extension to the week of October 19.  Calls for a reversal are still too keen.  Sentiment may give up on the reversal before it can take place.

Crude oil has risen modestly, but may have another test of mid-Cycle support at 84.80 before resuming its uptrend.  The Current Msster Cycle may terminate during the week of October 12.

Gold declined through round number support at 4100.00 this morning.  This indicates that the decline is not over.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue to mid-October.  Should that be so, the trtendline near 3900.00 may be challenged.

The Agriculture Index may be testing the 52-day Moving Average at 416.61 today as it consolidates the rally from the reversal beneath it.  Trending strength may be building with a possible panic rally by the weekend.  The soybean harvest is behind schedule and may be plagued by rain.

AgWeb.com reports, “Soybeans were the price leader with November up 22 1/4 and settling at $13.03.

The rally was fueled by talk that China was pricing soybeans off the U.S. Gulf and could resume buying after their Golden Week holiday.”

Bitccoin is testing the neckline at 82600.00 this morning.  Should it hold, the rally may resume to test (or exceed) the Cycle Top at 87971.00.  The current master Cycle allows the uptrend to possibly resume to the week of October 26.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7812.60 thus far this morning, very nearly reaching a new all-time high.  The Cycle Top resistance lies at 8023.32 this morning rising 8-10 points per day.  8100.00 may be in reach in the next week or so.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher for a fourth day, putting the S&P on course for its longest winning streak in two months, and on pace for a record open.”

The Dow jones Industrials have risen to 51638.00 thus far this morning in an abrupt bounce off the mid-Cycle support at 50431.00.  The nearest target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 52397.01, and rising.    The Cycle Top is currently at 54756.36 this morning, and rising.

The premarket VIX slid to 15.28 this morning, testing the Triangle trendline.  The Cycles Model sugests a possible surge of downside strength may be imminent.  This may aid in the development of a fractal tail beneath the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back from its Master Cycle high at 53.49.  A correction that testing The Head & Shoulders neckline may be anticipated.  The Cycles Model suggests weakness may prevail until the week of October 26.

Crude oil declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 88.41 this morning.  This may be the final shake-out prior to a resumption of the uptrend.  A high velocity rally may ensue through the middle of October.

ZeroHedge observes, “The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was in mid-September, and so far, the season has been very quiet as El Niño wind shear breaks apart tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin.

On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave the tropical disturbance a 70% chance of development over the next seven days, up from 50%.”

Gold has bounced from round number support at 4100.00 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible rally that may test the mid-Cycle resistance at 4539.93 by mid-October.

The Agriculture Index has risen above its 52-day Moving Average at 415.62, giving a buy signal.  What may follow is a very long rally as harvest season is underway.  Trending strength may begin later this week.   The Head & Shoulders formation may be engaged before the current Master Cycle ends.

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation mode beneath its Cycle Top resistance at 87835.00.  There may be a final test of the trendline near 82700.00 before a breakout may ensue.  The Head & Shoulders formation is loaded.  It simply needs a propellant to spark the rally.

The US Dollar has pulled back to its Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80 this morning.  Monday’s high may mark the end of the existing Master Cycle, allowing the decline.  However, the neckline appears to be strong and the Cycles Model injects a bit of possible volatility today.  We await the outcome.  Dollar shorts are on high alert as a further rally may be quite painful.

The bounce in the Euro stopped short of the Neckline of its Head && Shoulders, having been repelled by its Cycle Bottom at 112.93.  So, while there was some profit taking by the Euro shorts, sellers may have stepped back in.  The Cycles Model gives the Euro another week before buyers may be back en masse.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are consolidating within Friday’s trading range this morning.  While the trend of the Cycle is “higher”, investors appear listless.  The SPX is only 1.2% beneath its peak and above critical support at 7677.71.  The Cycle Top is at 8015.00.  Earnings season begins this week.

The Dow Jones Industrials have slipped beneath the September 16 low which was the turning point for the SPX and NDX (which is making new all-time highs).   The market maladjustment among the major indices has to be resolved.  The Cycles Model suggests the Dow must go higher.  Richard Russell once noted that a major bull market does not end on this note.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower to start the week and global markets struggle for direction, as political upheaval and mounting concern over Europe’s public finances dampened risk sentiment and sent the euro to a 17-month low against the dollar while the US yield curve twists steeper and USD appreciates.”

The premarket VIX rose to 16.38 this morning, back above the 52-day Moving Average at 15.92, due to a singular burst of strength.  The Cycles Model shows no folow-through higher.  The fractal formation suggests a decline beneath the Triangle trendline near 15.25.

The US Dollar rose to 102.53 this morning, above the Head & Shoulders neckline support at 101.80.  The Cycles Model shows the USD rising in the current master Cycle.  Dollar shorts are being squeezed with panic about to erupt during the next two weeks.  The Head & Shoulders target may be in view.

The Euro futures are making new lows this morning while the US Dollar breaks higher.  This is a classic example of how money flows in times of crisis.  While the Euro is falling apart liquidity is escaping to a safer harbor.  The Cycles Model shows an outright panic may be brewing.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is higher this morning, but beneath the September 28 high which may have ended the Master Cycle.  The Cycles Model suggets a possible pullback to Cycle top support at 50.53 or the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00.

Crude Oil is testing the 52-day Moving average at 88.49, remaining above it.  A trading Cycle low may have been put in this weekend, freeing crude to find a new elevation.  Trending strength may return as early as tomorrow and continue influencing price to the middle of October.

ZeroHedge observes, “”The East-West pipeline was attacked again yesterday,” a source working in the kingdom’s energy sector told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Monday. “A pumping station east of Riyadh in Khurais. It wasn’t targeted before. There was big damage and the pipeline stopped again.””

Gold is treading at the lower end of its consolidation.  The Fractal structure may be incomplete.  Should it find support at 4000.00, gold may bounce to the 52-day Moving Average at 4311.00.

The Agriculture Index rose above its 52-day Moving Average at 415.68, confirming a buy signal.  The Ag Index may gain momentum over the next week with a possible burst of trending energy by the weekend.  The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation is in view.

Bitcoin rose to 86969.00 this morning, remaining beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 87621.00.  A confirmed buy signal ressides above the Cycle Top.    Trending strength may reappear above the Cycle Top.  The current Master Cycle may continue as lfar as the week of October 26.

BKX may reamin on a bounce for a few more days.  The first resistance is at

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:20 am

The Banking Index has bounced from a potential Head & Shoulders formation shown in the chart.  The minimum bounce may reach the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.14.  However, the bounce may go as high as the Intermediate resistance at 182.45 or somewhere in between.   The current Master Cycle extends to the last week of October,  so there may be room for an engagement of the Head & Shoulders formation by mid-month.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7710.50 thus far this morning, rising above both the 52-day Moving Average at 7646.53 and Intermediate support/resistance at 7679.56, confirming a buy signal.  Overhead resistance lies at the Cycle Top at 8009.98.  The rally may push through the Vyvle Top toward the upper Diagnal trendline near 8100.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures climbed and bond yields reversed an earlier rise, as a drop in oil prices provides a tailwind in calm trading following a week in which markets were lashed by sharp swings in yields, with the US payrolls report still to come.”

The premarket VIX declined to 15.56 thus far, falling beneath the52-day Moving Average at 15.95 and creating a sell signal.  The Triangle trendine near 15.30 may be the next level of support, but may not hold.  The trading channel support currently lies near 13.00.  The decline may go beneath the Diagonal.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has declined to 51.54 thus far and may test the Cycle Top at 50.33 or the neckline beneath it.  The correction may take up to a week, but vigilance may be needed to monitor an upside reversal.  For the moment, however, the market may interpret the easing rates as a buy signal for stocks.

ZeroHedge remarks, “With nonfarm payrolls printing below even the weakest analyst’s forecast, the market’s reaction has been uniformly dovish with rate-hike odds plummeting, treasury yields tumbling, stocks soaring, dollar down and gold and crypto higher.”

The US Dollar has pulled back to test the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  The Cycles Model suggests the Master Cycle may be complete during the week of October 12.  This allows the USD to probe higher, into uncharted territory.  Yjr odds of a reversal increase beneath 101.50.

Crude oil may be making a final test of the 52-day Moving Average at 88.40.  It has succeded in reversing above it.  Confirmation of the reversal may be had above the Intermediate resistance at 91.58.  The Cycles Model infers a renewal of the raly until mid-October.

ZeroHedge notes, “A potential ban on U.S. diesel exports could have “a negative impact on gasoline,” U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Wednesday, although he didn’t rule out such a move from the Administration.”

Gold bounced this morning, but may have left an incomplete decline fractal.  Should a retest of support at 4000.00 succeed, the current Master Cycle may rise to the Cycle Top at 5244.16 in the next three weeks.  A failure at 4000.00 may send the price of gold considerably lower.

The Ag Index may have made its reversal today, at its half-Cycle point.  Should this be so, the Agriculture Index may rise to test the Head & Shoulders neckline at 460.00.  Volatility may pick up with Trending strength exploding near mid-Month.   The harvest season is in full swing, so what can possibly go wrong?

ZeroHedge advises, “We are about to witness something extremely rare. At the same time that a historic financial storm is brewing on Wall Street as bond yields go wild, a historic weather event threatens to dump trillions of gallons of rain over the middle of the country.”

Bitcoin is pressing against its Cycle Top resistance at 86980.00 this morning.  A breakout creates a buy signal that may take the current master Cycle to the last week of October.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

1:49 pm

The strength of the US Dollar may be a product of the declining Euro.  The Euro just broke an inverse Head & Shoulders formation with subsequent follow-through to mid-October.  The EU may attempt to stop the outflow through capital controls.  Government intervention may make things worse.

10:18 am

The Bankng Index continues its decline in strength.  There is a possibility of a bounce at the lower trendline at 165.00 in the next day or two.  However, the upside may be limited.  Panic may set in as bank earnings and outlook are made public next week.  Rising rates have put a serious dent in both earnings and valuations.

8:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures climbed to 7709.00 this morning, possibly on its way to a breakout above 7782.19 and a challenge of the previous ll-time high at 7816.79.  The potential target may be the Cycle Top currently at  8004.12.  8100.00+ is possible, depending on the animal spirits that emerge at market peaks.  The Cycles Model allows the rally to resume to the week of October 12.

ZeroHedge reports, “The disconnect continues. With 10Y yields rising as high as 5.34% – a new 24 year high – before easing back US equities remain completely oblivious of the tightening in financial conditions and instead are obsessing with the memory bubble, and pushing higher on the first day of Q4 as strength in technology shares held up against volatility in bond markets and a renewed climb in oil.”

The premarket VIX has eased down to 16.21 this morning, aproaching the 52-day Moving Average at 16.00.  A decline beneath it may increase down-trending strength with the lower trading channel trendline as the primary target.  While crash protection is cheap, it may become incredibly cheaper.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures have declined to 52.72 this morning while the cash market low remains at 52.79 thus far.   Yesterday’s show of strength may have been a final hurrah, pulling in the last reluctant holdout of the bond bears at the top tick in yields. The Fed is being blamed for the higher rates. Should the decline take hold, TNX may pull back, retesting the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00 in a painful shakeout.

RealClearMarkets suggest, “Financial commentary often makes monetary policy sound mechanical. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, borrowing costs rise. The Fed cuts rates, borrowing costs fall.

History is considerably messier.”

The US Dollar broke above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80, reaching 102.00 thus far.  This comes as a surprise to the dollar bears, who may be forced to cover their shorts.  The Cycles Model may agree with this thesis, as trending strength may break out as early as tomorrow.  The current Master Cycle remains in place until the week of October 12.

Crude oil bounced from the 52-day Moving average yesterday and rose as high as 92.90 this morning.  It has broken through Intermediate resistance at 91.33 and may be on a buy signal should it close above it.  Trending strength may reappear as early as this weekend as criude may rise above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 106.75.  The probe higher may be particularly strong, lasting to the week of October 12.

ZeroHedge observes, “The refined products crisis remains unresolved as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday, President Trump said he holds discussions “every day” about a potential diesel export ban, blaming Russia’s war in Ukraine for fueling the supply squeeze.”

Gold is making a weak bounce. The Cycles Model indicates a possible sideways correction with downside strength near mid-October.

The Ag Index has undershot the 52-day Moving Average at 414.84 this morning.  It may be at a half-Cycle low either today or tomorrow with the fractal formation nearly complete.  A reversal above the 52-day may create a buy signal in a very powerful and long lasting rally.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:30 am

The Banking Index may be bouncing beneath the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 173.16.  Should it rise above the mid-Cycle, it may rise to the Intermediate level currently at 183.84, depending on how far rates decline. The Master Cycle terminates late in October.  The OFR (Office of Financial Research) is being gutted and still offers out-of-date data, which may be a concern.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The size of the repo market has ballooned to over $13.5 trillion in outstanding agreements daily, according to the government’s Office of Financial Research (OFR). Via the repo market, financial institutions borrow from, and lend to, each other mostly overnight, but also for longer periods, such as for one week, secured by high-quality liquid collateral with a “haircut.””

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are hovering near Intermediate support/resistance at 7686.31 this morning.  The 52-day Moving Average lies at 7637.67, which may be the downside target to propel a bounce higher.  The uptrend is intact, but subject to multiple crosswinds.  The economy appears resilient despite rising rates and the prospect of war hasn’t intensified to the point of no return despite aggressions on all sides.  The decline in the price of oil doesn’t bring relief from the stress.  The fractal structure may be incomplete to the upside.  If so, the market awaits the news that signals some relief.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher with S&P leading both tech and small caps ahead of today’s core PCE data and Micron earnings after the close, as yields remain sticky, unchanged from yesterday’s multi-decade highs, and the USD fractionally lower.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating at the 52-day Moving Averate at 16.04, waiting for a breakout or a breakdown.  The Cycles model suggests “down” for the next move.  The Triangle “tail” may not be fully formed.  It awaits completion at the lower trading channel trendline near 12.50.  Should the animal spirits return to equities, the VIX may undershoot the trendline.

The US 10-year Bond Yield opened lower this morning, signaling rate relief may be at hand.  Should rates relax, they may find support at the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycle Top also rests there, giving strength to that suport.  A pullbackmay shake out some of the crowded shorts in bonds.

The US Dollar Index has pulled back from its Cycle Top and neckline at 101.83, having reached a high yesterday at 101.61.  USD is also on track for a correction, possibly to the 52-day Moving Average currently at 99.96 in the next two weeks.

Crude oil bounced this morning, but downward pressure is still extant.  The most likely support may be at the 52-day Moving Average at 88.12.  Tankers are moving through Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has restarted its pipeline and Trump may rescind the Russian sanctions in exchange for political prisoners.  What  can possibly go wrong?

ZeroHedge notes, “Texas ranchers and truckers could start seeing some relief at the fuel pump starting this week after Gov. Greg Abbott proclaimed a statewide disaster on Sept. 28 to ease diesel shortages.”

Gold has bounced from round number support at 4100.00 this morning.  The Cycles Model allows an approximate two week rally that may test the mid-Cycle resistance at 4547.17.  It may go higher due to trending strength appearing in the next week.

The Agricultural Index tested last week’s lo and it held.  This supports the thesis of a rising trend as price has found support.  The Cycles Model infers a possible two-month rally that may engage the Head & Shoulders formation.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7655.50 overnight, then rose above 7700.00 this morning.  It crossed above Intermediate suupport/resistance at 7688.00 and has reiterated its buy signal.  The Cycles Model has the SPX rising to the week of October 12, but with little conviction thus far.  The Cycle Top resistance rests at 7995.00 and the upper Diagonal trendline lies above 8050.00.  In August I had calculated the upper boundary of the top in the SPX near 8100.00.  That may remain a legitimate view.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have reversed earlier losses and trade in the green, near session highs, as bond yields drop across the curve, following a decline in oil which has also hit the dollar, despite lack of any tangible news out of Iran and as traders brace for the week’s first labor data following a neverending firehose of artificial-intelligence news and events.”

The premarket VIX slipped lower this morning, but remained above the lower Triangle trendline near 15.50.   The fractal construct allows the VIX to dexcend to the lower trading channel trendline beneath 13.00.  The Cycles Model still makes an allowance for a distinctive tail beneath the Triangle formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has pulled back from yesterday’s high and may be due fpr a decline to the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.  Bond shorts are very crowded.  The decline in yields may take some negative pressure from equities.  The Cycles Model allows the pullback to reach the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation during the week of October 5.

ZeroHedge comments, “If you wanted a textbook example of a central bank trapped between a geopolitical rock and a stagflationary hard place, welcome to September 2026. To wit: the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is tearing through the global energy market, and the resulting inflation shock is vaporizing the bond market.”

The US Dollar continues its climb towad the head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80.  However, momentume is being lost.  Should a reversal take place, the decline may reach the 52-day Moving Average in the next two weeks.

Crude Oil is testing the Intermediate support at 90.87 this morning.  Should it gain a foothold today, it may resume its uptrend toward the neckline of the Heaad & Shoulders formation.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible dramatic increase in trending strength in October,  indicating that the Head & Shoulders may be activated during that time.

ZeroHedge observes, “Iran is said to have struck a Very Large Crude Carrier in the Strait of Hormuz late on Monday, signaling what will likely be the resumption of strikes on foreign vessels seeking to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, after last week’s diplomatic talks at the UN failed to produce a breakthrough.”

Gold may be bouncing at round number support, relieving the oversold condition.  It may bounce higher, testing the 52-day Moving Average at 4302.95.  The Cycles Model indicates a probable further decline which may last to mid-October.  However, the Cycles Model offers that, if its exceeds the 52*day Moving Average, there may be a long-shot possibility that gold may go considerably higher.

The Ag Index remains hovering above its double reversal low at 416.53.   The significance of that low is that it nearly matches the February 19, 2025 high.  In other words, it may be “proving” its breakout above that significant high.  Should that level hold, the Ag Index may have entered the next phase of its rally.  The Cycles Model indicates that the month of October may prove very strong, especially above the neckline of the proposed head & Shoulders formation.

ZeroHesdge observes, “A heightened wave of federal immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas has sent a shockwave through the U.S. beef supply chain, causing severe processing plant slowdowns, stranding thousands of cattle at feedlots, and threatening to drive up consumer meat prices.”

Bitcoin continues its sideways consolidation.  The trendline through the middle of the chart is beginning to act like a neckline for a possible Head & Shoulders formation.  Should that be the case, the formation may have already been activates with a possible completion by the end of October.  It may act as an escape mechanism for failing economies such as Japan and the European Union.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have been consolidationg above Intermediate support at 7690.04 this mornning.  SPX may be emerging from a minor Trading Cycle low.  The Cycles Model suggsts a possible steady grind higher over the next week.  At htis pace, the Cycle Top at 7990.00 would be an appropriate target in the next two weeks.  While breadth and position are at all-time lows, equities investors are not heading for the exits.

NDX futures declined to 30258.00 over the weekend, but still maintaines its upward bias.  The Cycles Model suggests the new high may be near the Cycle Top at 31950.75.  Options traders continue to chase the upside, while uuder the hood institutions are reducing exposure and hedge funds are actively shorting the NDX.

The Industrials are consolidating after making a late Master Cycle low on Thursday, September 24.  The Cycles Model calls for a steady climb over the next two weeks as investors take notice of positive readings in the blue chips.  Overseas investors near the war  zones may begin moving money to the US as the economic atmosphere becomes more unstable.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up.”

The premarket VIX bounced off the Triangle trendline near 15.00 to a morning high at 16.43.  The fractal formation wawaits completion near the lower trading channel trendline.  As overall equity position has declined, investors have refused to push the panic button.

The US 10-year Bond Yield continues its rally above the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible pullback to the neckline before rates move higher.  An alternate view may be a “running correction” where the pullback may be muted.   Trending strength may return this weekend.

USD is also consolidating as it approaches the Cycle Top and neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.   The Cycles Model suggests a continuation of the rally in the USD until mid-October.  Trending Strength may appear this week, increasing the probability of propelling the USD above the neckline.  Should that occur, a short squeeze of a large magnitude may result.

Crude oil is pulling back from an initial burst of strength originating this weekend.  The rally may resume with little fanfare this week, but activity and strength may pile on over the next two weeks.  A potential Head & Shoulders formation appears overhead.  Should the rally exceed it, the breakout may be forceful.   The Trump administration is considering a voluntary export ban on diesel rather than a mandated one.

Gold plummeted beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 4299.59 today.  It has lost the 52-day support at 4299.59 and is on a sell signal.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible 2-week decline.  The Cycle Bottom at 3856.80 is being watched for a possible breakdown.

The Ag Index  is hovering just above Friday’s low, which did not break beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 413.93.  Should it rise above Intermediate resistance at 425.84, a possible buy signa may be given.  Condirmation of the buuy signal may be given above the Cycle Top at 432.12.

Bitcoin is probing lower beneath the Cycle Top at 86158.00.  This action may be considered a consolidation, awaiting develop ments that may push BTC either above the Cyc le Top at 86159.00 or beneath the trendline and Intermediate support at 79959.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures resumed their ascent after closing above the Intermediate support at 7690.45, reaching an overnight high at 7739.30.  The Cycles Model suggests a continued rally through the end of the month.  The Cycle Top resistance  at 7983.17 appears to be the target for the rally, with a possible throw-over.  Market behavior often targets round numbers and the trendline near 8000.00 may be a likely goal for investors.

The Industrials bounced this morning to 51577.10 from what may be an extended Master Cycle low.  Should the bounce continue, there may be a chance for a recovery, but the chances of a new ATH may be slim without some defining event.

Meanwhile, NDX futures rose to 30716.60 this morning, with a new all-time high in sight.  The Cycles Model puts the potential target (the Cycle Top resistance) at 31909.47, very close to the upper Diagonal trendline.  Should the animal spirits become engaged, the NDX may go considerably higher.   You can see a very mixed bag among the major stock indices.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures erased earlier losses and are trading at session highs led by tech, as bonds steadied (with the 10Y at multi-decade highs of 5.17%) after oil’s latest rally lost steam, helping US stocks to extend gains for the week”

The premarket VIX declined to 15.02 this morning, just above the Triangle trendline.  Should it break through, the decline may continue.  There appears to be a strong possibility of a “tail” developing beneath the Triangle formation.  The trading chanel trendline near 12.50 may become the target from this decline.

The US 10-year Bond Yield continued higher, reaching for 5.20 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests Trending strength may engage TNX today, crossing yet another threshhold.  However, TNX may also be due for a pullback to the Head & Shoulders neckline in the next week.  TNX may become chaotic in the month of October.

Yesterday, Zerohedge observed, “After yesterday’s dismal 5Y aucton which pushed yields to multi-decade highs, moments ago the Treasury completed its last coupon auction of the week, selling $44 billion in 7Y paper. It was another ugly auction, if not quite as ugly as yesterday’s shitshow.

The sale stopped at a high yield of 5.085%, up from 4.512% a month ago and the highest yield on record for 7 Year paper!”

The US Dollar Index pulled back to 100.93 this morning as a minor Cycle low may emerge this weekend.  It may test round number support at 100.00 prior to a continued rally.  A breakout above the neckline may engage the Head & Shoulders formation with knock-on consequences.

Crude oil made a minor correction this morning after a bounce from Intermediate support at 90.36.  The Cycles Model suggest growing strength may ensue wuth the Head & Shoulders neckline in view.  Should it exceed the neckline in the next week, the possibility of engaging the Head & Shoulders formation becomes elevated.

Gold remains suspended beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 4298.30 this morning, but that may not last.  It is overdue for a surge in Trending strength that may break it above that level and surge toward Intermediate resistance at 4407.72.  Above that, a buy signal resides that may last to mid-October.

The Ag Index extended its corrective decline to the last possible day to qualify as a double reversal.   It may meet the 52-day Moving Average at 412.71 before a reversal.  If so, this action may form a 2-month rallythat may engage the Head & Shoulders formation.

The Banking Index may have started a bounce this morning, sending BKX into a possible week-long correction.  Round number resistance at 180.00 may be a realistic target for the bounce.  Thereafter, the Cycles Model infers a possible decline to the end of October.  The Cycle bottom at 148.79 may be a considered target.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

12:54 pm

The Banking Index has bounced at its mid-Cycle support at 173.03 this morning.  The bounce may only last a couple of days, with the decline resuming next week.  Volatility may pick up during October, with the current Master Cycle coming due at the end of the monthll

8:30 am

Good Morning!

I have a meeting this morning.  More details may arrive later.

SPX futures declined to 7647.50, possibly testing the 52-day Moving Average at 7625.42.  The pullback may be over this morning with the reversal taking the SPX higher.  The Cycle Top resistance is at 7973.06.

11:00 am

SPX may have made its low this morning at 7665.49, but remain beneath Intermediate support/resistance at 7689.52.  A probe above 7690.00 lets us know the reversal higher may be underway…

VIX rose above the 52-day Moving Average at 16.09, but may have slipped beneath that support.  The Cycles Model indicates that the decline may resume to the lower trenline beneath 13.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has continued its rally above the nckline of a Head & Shoulders formation.  The minimal target may be reached in only two weeks.  Should the H&S formation remain active, there may be a brief retest of the necline before resuming its advance.  However, the next two weeks show trending strength consistent with a possible panic rally.

ZeroHedge considers, “With ‘hard’ economic data still somewhat muted, expectations were for a modest retracement in US PMIs from recently optimistic levels in preliminary September data.

Instead, the ‘soft’ survey data soared:

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 58.7 vs 55.8 exp (August: 56.5). 59-month high.
• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 vs 53.7 exp (August: 53.9). 52-month high.”

The US Dollar Index continues its rally toward the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  The current Mster Cycle may continue higher until the week of October 12, allowing the ability to rise above the neckline.  The Dollar shorts are being squeezed in this Cycle and short covering may propel the USD considerably above the neckline.

Crude oil advanced aggresively to 96.46 this morning, reflecting the return of trending strength.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic may visit the oil patch this weekend with more to come in October.  Note the potential Head & Shoulders formation directly above.  While this formation is in a unique location, we must treat thisstructure  as valid.

ZeroHedge remarks, “It was just this month which saw the Iran conflict spill over into a renewed fight between the Saudi coalition and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Now Iran is threatening to expand the fight further, even into the Indian Ocean.”

Gold made a morning low at 4244.45, remaining above the September 14 Master Cycle low.  Should it remain above that low, we may treat today’s action as a retest of the Cycle low, allowing the rally to re-form.  A probe above the 52-day Moving  Average at 4293.81 offers a potential buy signal, which may be confirmed when Gold rises above Intermediate resistance at 4408.97.  A further rally above the mid-Cycle resistance at 4550.75 leaves the possibility of targeting the cycle top at 5241.14.

The Ag Index is testing the September 14 Master Cycle low.  Once above theIntermediate resistnace at 423.98, the rally may resume.  The buy signal may be confirmed above the Cycle Top resistance at 730.75.