The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures have been consolidationg above Intermediate support at 7690.04 this mornning. SPX may be emerging from a minor Trading Cycle low. The Cycles Model suggsts a possible steady grind higher over the next week. At htis pace, the Cycle Top at 7990.00 would be an appropriate target in the next two weeks. While breadth and position are at all-time lows, equities investors are not heading for the exits.
NDX futures declined to 30258.00 over the weekend, but still maintaines its upward bias. The Cycles Model suggests the new high may be near the Cycle Top at 31950.75. Options traders continue to chase the upside, while uuder the hood institutions are reducing exposure and hedge funds are actively shorting the NDX.
The Industrials are consolidating after making a late Master Cycle low on Thursday, September 24. The Cycles Model calls for a steady climb over the next two weeks as investors take notice of positive readings in the blue chips. Overseas investors near the war zones may begin moving money to the US as the economic atmosphere becomes more unstable.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower with Tech underperforming, alongside a drop in treasuries, as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up.”
The premarket VIX bounced off the Triangle trendline near 15.00 to a morning high at 16.43. The fractal formation wawaits completion near the lower trading channel trendline. As overall equity position has declined, investors have refused to push the panic button.
The US 10-year Bond Yield continues its rally above the neckline of a potential Head & Shoulders formation. The Cycles Model indicates a possible pullback to the neckline before rates move higher. An alternate view may be a “running correction” where the pullback may be muted. Trending strength may return this weekend.
USD is also consolidating as it approaches the Cycle Top and neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80. The Cycles Model suggests a continuation of the rally in the USD until mid-October. Trending Strength may appear this week, increasing the probability of propelling the USD above the neckline. Should that occur, a short squeeze of a large magnitude may result.
Crude oil is pulling back from an initial burst of strength originating this weekend. The rally may resume with little fanfare this week, but activity and strength may pile on over the next two weeks. A potential Head & Shoulders formation appears overhead. Should the rally exceed it, the breakout may be forceful. The Trump administration is considering a voluntary export ban on diesel rather than a mandated one.
Gold plummeted beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 4299.59 today. It has lost the 52-day support at 4299.59 and is on a sell signal. The Cycles Model indicates a possible 2-week decline. The Cycle Bottom at 3856.80 is being watched for a possible breakdown.
The Ag Index is hovering just above Friday’s low, which did not break beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 413.93. Should it rise above Intermediate resistance at 425.84, a possible buy signa may be given. Condirmation of the buuy signal may be given above the Cycle Top at 432.12.
Bitcoin is probing lower beneath the Cycle Top at 86158.00. This action may be considered a consolidation, awaiting develop ments that may push BTC either above the Cyc le Top at 86159.00 or beneath the trendline and Intermediate support at 79959.00.