The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures peaked in the overnight market at 6272.10, remaining beneath the rising trendline near 6275.00.  The trendline continues to rise at 10.9 points per day.  Institutions have pared back their longs through quarterly rebalancing and have no incentive to  increase their exposure early in the second half of the year.  This leaves the mechanical buyers such as the Commercials and the retail crowd to pick up the slack.   Retail activity has picked up to the highest its been since 2018.  Cash levels, on the other hand, have declined beneath 4%, a critical level for market liquidity.  That being said, the Cycles Model doesn’t show heightened volatility until the second week of August.  That suggests the SPX may remain range-bound above the 50-day Moving Average at 5987.86 for the next couple of weeks, implying the retail longs may become even more crowded.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, trading in a narrow range overnight, with SPX unchanged, while Nasdaq futs rise after TSMC beat on sales guidance. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were muted, but earnings reports were solid (TSM, UAL). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, Nasdaq futs are up 0.1% boosted by a positive outlook from TSMC, and Rusell 2000 futs are down 0.4%. European stocks also advance with the Stoxx 600 up 0.7%, led by gains in industrial, construction and auto sectors. In Pre-market trading, megacap tech is higher, with NVDA (+0.8%) leading gains, followed by META (+0.7%) and AAPL (+0.3%) as TSMC’s raised outlook is a good sign that spending on AI is holding up; on sector basis, Health Care and Real Estate are outperforming. Yields are 1-2bp higher and the dollar staged a comeback as dip-buyers stepped in, following Wednesday’s brief bout of panic over the future of Powell. Commodities are mixed, with oil and iron ore higher, while base and precious metals are lower. Today, markets will focus on Retail Sales (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30am), NAHB Housing Mkt Index (10am), Fed speakers Kugler (9:15am), Daly (12:45pm), Cook (1:30pm), Waller (6:30pm). We also get earnings from ABT, CFG, CTAS, ELV, FITB, GE, MAN, MMC, PEP, TRV, USB before the market; while after the close we get: IBKR, NFLX, SFNC, WAL.”

VIX futures remain beneath the 50-day Moving Average in a consolidation pattern.  The fact that it very briefly broke above the 50-day indicates a buy signal, but most technicians may remain short or neutral pending a breakout above the declining wedge formation and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 19.66.  Be aware that the current position affords an ideal condition for accumulating shares.

USD futures have risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.82 this morning, turning up the pain levels for the USD shorts.  The Cycles Model suggests the pain levels may remain heightened for the next three weeks as short covering may rule the USD.  Current positioning may have set off a buy signal for the commercials as the 50-day is a powerful trigger point for the CTAs.

TNX futures made a new high at 44.97 while the cash market topped at 44.93 as it goes into a brief consolidation.  TNX may pull back to the 50-day Moving Average at 44.04. However, the Cycles Model suggests a burst of energy tomorrow may nullify the retracement.

Zerohedge observes, “Many were shocked (again) after the latest CPI and PPI data confirmed that the experts were once again dead wrong, and instead of the widely expected inflation tsunami, Trump’s tariffs have so far sparked only continued disinflation (which will only become more acute as home prices slide). And yet, anyone who read our Beige Book analysis from April (not to mention our accurate prediction from last June that “The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency“) would have known just that: as we laid out, “Beige Book Finds Inflation Mentions Tumble To 3 Year Low” which was the clearest indication that despite the prevailing narrative, rising prices is simply not a thing businesses across the US are worried about. We got further confirmation of this last month, when the latest Beige Book found no runaway inflation (again) but instead that sentiment in the economy splitting along party lines.”

Bitcoin futures have fallen beneath the Cycle Top at 118154.57.  While it is in the early stages of a reversal window, it may not be finished to the upside.  The Cycles Model suggests rising volatility/strength over the weekend which may offer directionality for the next two weeks.  Money flows suggest capital may be fleeing Europe and Japan.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:53 am

VIX has broken out of its declining wedge formation, giving a buy signal.  It has also risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 18.64, adding confirmation to that signal.

11:41 am

BKX slipped beneath its three-month trendline, giving a sell signal.  The Cycles Model infers the decline may last to mid-August.  Ending Diagonal formations often completely retrace themselves suggesting the target of this decline may be the April low.  Should it venture beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, the decline may be much deeper.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures completed its Key Reversal during the after hours by declining to 6217.50.  It has since bounced back to retest the bottom parameter of the Key Reversal at 6239.00.  Key reversals have been known to be reliable buy/sell signals.  Further confirmation was made with the trendline crossing at 6250.00 – 6255.00.  The trendline is rising at a pace of 10.9  points per day, leaving it closer to 6265.00 today.  The next lower support lies at 6079.08 which may add further confirmation of a sell signal.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures and global stocks dropped, but were well off session lows, as a stream of negative tariff headlines and dialed-back expectations for interest-rate cuts prompted doubts about the market’s ability to sustain recent highs and sent 30Y yields above 5%, a level seen as a redline for further stock appreciation. As of 7:00am, the S&P 500 was on track for a second straight decline, with futures down 0.1% after , while Nasdaq futures were 0.3% lower after closing at a record; the small-caps Russell 2000 is seeing an early outperformance bid. Pre-mkt, Mag7/semis are mixed as are Cyclicals with Banks seeing an offer into the next batch of earnings. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2%, weighed down by technology shares as ASML Holding NV trimmed its growth outlook for next year, citing trade tensions; French car giant Renault slumped 16% after slashing its profit guidance. Treasury yields are flat as is the USD. Commodities are mostly higher with Ags leading, precious metals following while energy is modestly weaker. Today’s macro data focus is the PPI data which will give more clues about how tariffs are affecting companies after mixed CPI numbers. We have another batch of Fedspeakers who will say nothing of importance.”

VIX futures consolidated in the overnight market.  The SPX reversal may have caught hedgers by surprise yesterday.  There appears to be a wait-and-see approach to yesterday’s reversal.  The declining wedge offers a breakout point above 17.85 where a buy signal may be offered.  In the meantime, the 50-day Moving Average is at 18.73, where recognition of the change in trend may be realized.  Don’t ignore it, as it may offer a unique profit opportunity for those aware of the potential for profit.  The Cycles Model suggests that the downtrend may be broken today.

ZeroHedge observes, “2025 is playing out much like we anticipated.  The US economy keeps slowly weakening even as the equity markets remain elevated.  Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is rapidly deteriorating, less so Europe and non-China Asia.

Equity markets don’t reflect the degree of economic malaise that exists across the globe because global central banks have learned that equity markets are key indicators for inspiring economic confidence.  It’s why China and Europe are experiencing strong equity performance.  It won’t last.”

USD futures made a buy signal yesterday by crossing above Intermediate support/resistance at 98.14.  Today is may test the 50-day Moving Average at  98.83, potentially setting off a firestorm of short covering.  The past six months have been good to the USD shorts…until it’s not.  The ensuing rally may take the USD above the mid-cycle resistance at 103.59, where shorts may abandons all hope.  The Cycles Model suggests another three weeks of high velocity rally, starting today.

TNX futures rose to an overnight high at 44.95 before easing back down.  This may mark the end of the current Master Cycle, suggesting a pullback to relieve the overbought condition.  The mid-Cycle support at 43.84 may provide a cushion for the retracement.  However, the Cycles Model warns of a rise in velocity by the end of the week.  This indicates a possible phase-shift, sending yields considerably higher.

The Japanese Yen may have reached its Master Cycle low this morning’s futures at 67.03.  A reversal may be underway in the futures but not yet shown in the charts.  The Cycles Model warns of an acceleration of the new trend as early as tomorrow.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:17 pm

As SPX loses its trend, so does the BKX.  Note that the BKX rose from its April 7 bottom to its top on July 7 in 91 days.  It is now testing its trendline at 140.00.  A sell signal may be given at the break of this trendline.  Bank balance sheets have been stretched significantly.  Remember that BKX bottomed at at 17.75 in the last financial crisis on March 9, 2009.  It’s time to take profits.  Super Cycles last about 26 years.

1:05 pm

SPX has crossed its trendline at 6260.00 – 6265.00.  Should the SPX close beneath 6239.00 we would have a key reversal.  Technical analysis indicates this may be a sell signal.   While the margin seems thin, any additional decline may make the change in trend more evident.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6299.70, then pulled back prion to the CPI report.  All else considered until now, the current Master Cycle may have ended on Thursday, July 10 at 6290.22.  The alternate view may be a spike higher to round number resistance at 6300.00 prior to a possible key reversal.  The CPI will be examined carefully to see if the tariffs are having an impact on inflation.  Here is the report.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, led by Tech with the biggest overnight news being that Trump is allowing NVDA to resume its (less advanced) H2O chip sales to China; there had been chatter of a chips-for-rare earths pact to thaw US/China trade relations.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, with NVDA jumping another +5.3% in pre-market trading, while AMD +3.5%, MRVL +2.85, AVGO +1.4% also gained. The balance of Mag7 is mostly higher; semis are poised to be the best sub-group, and cyclicals are higher with banks with a mild bid into earnings this morning. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens into CPI with JPM noting that some FICC client convos are pointing to a dovish CPI print. The USD is weaker and commodities are declining across all 3 complexes though precious, crude, and sugar remain bid. Today’s focus is the unofficial kick off 25Q2 earnings and Banks have a low bar to cross and CPI is not yet expected to reflect the expected inflation from the trade war.”

VIX futures slipped to 16.59 this morning.  The CPI report has little discernible effect on the markets thus far.  While a possible Master Cycle low may have been established on Thursday, the Cycles Model may allow a final probe lower.

TNX is declining this morning after expanding its Master Cycle low to yesterday at 44.47.  It may retest the 200-day Moving Average at 43.47 or possibly a bit lower over the next 2-3 weeks.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am  

Good Morning!

SPX futures dove to 6218.30, challenging the Ending Diagonal trendline near 6225.00 this weekend.  Last Thursday’s Master Cycle high was extended a full 30 days beyond its average length, an unusual event.    The Cycles Model now anticipates approximately 40 days of decline.  A sell signal may be obtained at the crossing beneath the trendline.  There aare few, if any, anomalies in the Cycles Model until mid-August, when volatility breaks loose in a big way.  That doesn’t mean the excitement cannot begin sooner.  There is about $7 trillion on the sidelines, leading analysts to anticipate a further melt-up in equities and bitcoin.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower, although well off session lows, and European stocks slumped after Trump’s weekend threat to slap 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, providing a test for markets that were recently at record highs. With global yields blowing out, as German and Japanese long-dated bonds slumped as traditional safe havens were ignored, amid the risk-off tone the only flight to safety today are cryptocurrencies and precious metals, with Bitcoin surging to a new record high of $122,000 while silver rose above $39 for the first time since 2011. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3% after Trump said the tariff rates will kick in on Aug. 1 if the EU and Mexico can’t negotiate better terms, and investors will need to make the call on whether he’s going to follow through this time, with Mag 7 names mostly lower premarket with NVDA/TSLA in the green. Semis are also under pressure and cyclicals and defensives are mixed, pointing to a choppy session. The Treasury yield curve is seeing a slight bear steepening while the USD is flat. Commodities are stronger across all 3 complexes with crude, nat gas and silver the standouts. A flurry of economic data is in focus this week, with CPI due on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday plus the unofficial start to earnings season with all the big banks reporting.”

VIX futures rose to 17.85 over the weekend, leasing the Thursday low as the potential Master Cycle low.  The VIX Cycle allowed compression which, it turn, gave the green light to stocks last week.  Tha;t may now be over, or nearly so.

TNX broke above its July 9 high at 44.35 this morning.  This may end up as a false move, as the retracement appears incomplete.  Should that be the case, we may see TNX decline to the Cycle Bottom near 40.77.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Note:  I am going to my last radiation treatment this morning.  Considering how the prior treatments went, I may not have the energy for any lengthy analysis.

Good Morning!

SPX futures decline to the trendline near 6233.00 this morning, then bounced.  The 50% retracement level for the bounce is near 6260.00.  It appears that, once the retracement is finished, the decline may be underway until late August.  A sell signal may be had at a decline beneath 6225.00-6230.00.  The attempts to encourage “buying the dips” may have drained what little liquidity is left in the market.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures traded overnight in a narrow range, approaching the open near the flat line.  Yesterday’s attempt to break out prior to the FOMC release failed.   The steep diagonal trendline lies near 6200.00.  Beneath it a sell signal awaits.  Ending Diagonals often retrace themselves, once complete.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6260.00.  Long gamma may arise above 6275.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6210.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, reversing an earlier loss but lagging the Asia-Pac and EMEA sessions, following the latest batch of tariff letters with the most impactful being a 50% tariff on Brazil. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are flat after closing just shy of an all-time high on Wednesday. Pre-market, Mag7 names are mixed with NVDA leading the Semis bid post positive TSM revenue update. Treasuries resumed their decline after Wednesday’s rebound, with the 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.35%. The dollar was steady. Cmdtys are rebounding with bids across all 3 complexes with gold, steel, and natgas the standout performers. Today’s macro data focus is on initial jobless claims and continuing claims.”

VIX futures also remain in a narrow range, with a slight uplift as the market nears its open. Yesterday’s downdraft may have marked the end of seasonality favoring stocks.

Next Wednesday’s options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00, suggesting a reversion to the mean may be in order.  Short gamma lies between 15.00 and 19.00, while long gamma lies above 21.00 and stretches to 50.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00  am

Note I am going in for further radiation treatments this morning and will not return until after the market open.

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6241.60 thisa morning in a 50% retracement of its decline since last Thursday.  The Cycles Model anticipates a further decline to late August.  A sell signal may be made beneath 6200.00 with a diagonal trendline crossing.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures inch higher as the market tries to regain some losses a day after President Donald Trump escalated his trade rhetoric and threatened more charges on copper and pharmaceuticals. Trump also foreshadowed an update to the trade status, saying he “will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade” on Wednesday morning and with an additional number of countries to be released in the afternoon as we reach the 90-day deadline to Liberation Day. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are 0.2% higher, with Mag7 names trading higher premarket while semis are mixed; banks and industrials are boosting cyclicals. Europe is also trending higher (+80bps) for a third day, while Asia finished mostly lower (HSI -1%, with HS Tech -1.7%).  Goldman writes that heavy focus on recent momentum unwind (the Goldman High Beta Momentum Pair Basket -4.5% yesterday and now down 8.3% mtd). Recent catalysts for the Momo Reversal seem to be: the move in back-end Rates / positioning / ongoing re-shuffling to start the quarter / and the big reversal lower in Banks yesterday.  Elsewhere, some minor underperformance in haven assets suggests investors are not too concerned by what Trump may reveal later today. Spot gold loses $10 or so. Treasuries are steady with bond yields flat to up 1bp as the USD is indicated higher. Commodities are also higher in both Ags/Energy as metals are generally weaker post-copper tariff announcement. Trump’s 50% copper tariffs would be “extremely inflationary,” according to UBS O’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha CIO Bernie Ahkong, while Goldman Sachs expects inbound-US flows of the metal to accelerate as the incentive to “front-run” the tariff implementation has increased. Today’s macro data focus is on Fed Minutes, mtge applications, and inventories.”

VIX futures dropped to 16.10 this morning on day 251 if the Master Cycle.  The Model shows a spike in volatility today.  Should tghis be the bottom, we may see an eruption of volatility starting today.

TNX is pulling back from its high.  A normal retracement may go to the mid-Cycle support at 43.34.  However, there is an outside chance of a decline to the Cycle Bottom at 40.64 in the next couple of days, extending the Master Cycle to a possible new two-month low.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am  

Note:  I am going through radiation treatments for Prostate cancer.  This is affecting my schedule for reporting on this website.

Good Morning!

SPX futures made an overnight low at 6209.60 before a bounce back near the flat line.  The July 3 high at 6284.65 remains intact as a late Master Cycle high.  AS I watch the Japanese and European markets, it is clear that the sources of this surge in stocks were not solely domestic.  August is when most wars have begun.  This extended Cycle surge may be an advance warning for smart money moving out of the danger zones as threats turn into action.  The Cycles Model calls for a downturn until late August, allowing a significant decline.  The Model shows a significant burst of energy tomorrow as the FOMC releases its decision.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6230.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6250.00, while short gamma resides beneath 6210.00.  This market may have a short fuse.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures rise as Trump leaves the door open for more discussions despite the 14 tariff letters sent yesterday and the extension of the deadline to Aug 1 which is “not 100% firm.” As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures rise 0.1% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% after US markets retreated on Monday from ATH on the back of increased tariffs on countries if deals are not reached (Japan/South Korea’s 25% were standouts). Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher, while industrials are leading cyclicals with financials mixed. 10Y TSY yields are higher by 3bps to 4.41% as the curve bear steepens and the USD is higher after erasing an earlier loss. Commodities are generally weaker although Brent crude has once again rebounded from session lows to trade just shy of $70/bbl.  The macro data focus today is on Small Biz Optimism (prints in line with expectations), 1-year Inflation Expectations, and an update on Consumer Credit. ”

VIX futures rose to 118.96 in the overnight market, then declined to 16.95 this morning.  This behavior may be indicative of attempts to control the VIX in advance of the FOMC as certain large institutions often make their play in the pre-market in an attempt ot set the tone for the market open.

TNX continues its rise above the 50-day Moving Average at 43.73.  Today is day 258 in the Master Cycle.  However, it appears that there may be some intense activity in the bond market in the next 24 hours with yields going higher.

ZeroHedge observes, ” Remember Japanese bonds?

Latest 2 day rise in the Japan 30 year is actually bigger than the mid May move everybody got so excited about. 50 day stays very much intact. Let’s see how this plays out, but this is a must watch.”

USD had extended its Master Cycle low to July 1 due to tariff concerns.  The rebound from beneath the Cycle Bottom support/resistance gives an aggressive buy signal.  That buy signal becomes confirmed above Intermediate resistance at 98.39.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible rally yo early-to-mid August.  The most hated and most shorted USD may be about to mount a terrific short squeeze.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good morning!

SPX futures rose to 6285.10, then dropped to 6243.90 over  the holiday weekend session.  The anticipated volatility has kicked in, leading to a possible reversal over the weekend.  This may be confirmed on Wednesday, expected to be a highly volatile day.  Should that be so, the Cycles Model projects a decline lasting to late August.  Stock market liquidity is becoming less friendly while recession risks are growing.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are weaker with investors on edge about the potential for more tariffs from the Trump administration as we head into the July 9 deadline which appears to have been rolled to Aug 1. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 contracts declined 0.2% although well off session lows after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that some countries may get a three-week extension to trade negotiations. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.4% with small caps underperforming but tech is being dragged by TSLA sliding 6% after Elon Musk announced he will form a new political party. Apple (-1.0%) after phone shipments from China in May were down 9.7% Y/Y for the tranche that includes iPhones. Semis/Cyclicals under pressure. Trump said either a deal will be done, or a country will get a letter on Monday with 12 letters set to be sent today. Additionally, the president said late on Sunday that Anyone aligning with BRICS “Anti-American” stance is subject to an additional 10% tariff. Oil was flat, rebounding from session lows after OPEC+ did another supply hike, this time for 548k bpd. Yield curve is twisting steeper, USD stronger, and cmdtys declining (Ags, metals). This is a light macro data week into next week’s CPI and kick off to earnings season.”

VIX futures rose off their Thursday low, making a minor breakout above Thursday’s high at 17.48.  Confirmation and a buy signal may come above resistance at 19.95.

1:00 pm  

TNX continues to rally from its July 1 low, leaving a Master Cycle bottom.  It is on a buy signal and may be confirming it today asi it rises above the 50-day Moving Average.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

9:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose as high as 6220.00, but settled down to a projected flat open.  However, the Cycles Model suggests the decline may begin with strength today.  Should that be the case, the 2.5-month trendline lies near 6100.00, giving a clear sell signal beneath it.  The reversal has happened roughly two weeks later than the average length of a Master Cycle.  That, plus the completion of the fractal beneath 6239.00 gives fair warning that the decline may have begun.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6190.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6200.00 while short gamma gains traction beneath 6175.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, after trading in a narrow overnight range, with small caps outperforming as we see more signs of a Value rotation as H2 kicks off and after yesterday’s dramatic momentum plunge. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the red, reversing an earlier 0.3% gain as President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline gets ever closer — Trump said on Tuesday he won’t delay the date for imposing higher levies on trading partners; Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading. Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.9% to outperform as Tuesday’s rotation out of high-momentum stocks extended, which helped Cyclicals led by Financials continue to outperform.  European equities advanced 0.4%. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and USD catches a bid which accelerates as US traders walk in. Commodities are rallying across all 3 complexes, with Brent trading back over $68. Yesterday, stocks fell into the bell on Trump comments about not extending the July 9 deadline and possibly not reaching a deal with Japan but recovered their initial losses. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP though it has not been a reliable predictor of NFP.”

VIX opened higher this morning as it consolidates its gain from the Master Cycle low made last Thursday.  Today may be a day of strength, suggesting the VIX may rise toward its mid-Cycle and 50-Day Moving Average at 20.00.

Today we move to the July 9 options chain.  Max Pain is at 18.00.  Short gamma has virtually disappeared while long gamma may start at 20.00 but fizzles out above 30.00 as investors don’t feel the need to hedge.

TNX has risen in a probable corrective bounce from its low thus far.  Both the Cycles Model and Fractal Model suggest another probe lower, probably on Friday or over the weekend.  The Cycles Model actually projects the bottom to occur next Wednesday, just in time for the FOMC to lower rates again. I have made a study of rates and the FOMC reactions.  The FOMC reactions have always been after-the-fact since 1949.  The Cycles Model anticipates rates to start rising next week.

Bitcoin has risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 105100.00 after testing it twice in the past two days.  Should it rise above 108750.00, a potential breakout may occur, giving the green light for a new rally to a possible range of 115000.00.  Bitcoin is traded internationally 24/7.  It has been used as a vehicle for money laundering and moving assets.  For example, the Chinese have been using “Bitcoin in 2024 to move assets from the mainland to the US or another safe haven.  This year the potential for war in the Ukraine and the Middle East may give rise to persons in Europe and the Middle East using Bitcoin as a means of transferring assets out of their countries before international money transfers are outlawed.

ZeroHedge asks, “Will it?

BTC back to big resistance area again, gaining some momentum lately. Let’s see how this develops from here, but BTC has basically been consolidating for a long time. A close above recent highs, and we risk seeing vacuum to the upside again.”

The USD index continues its decline.  While there is a chanced of a reversal here, both the Cycles Model and Fractal analysis indicate a further decline.  In fact, the Cycles Model anticipates a decline to early August.  The next level of support appears to be 93.50.