The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
3:17 pm
As SPX loses its trend, so does the BKX. Note that the BKX rose from its April 7 bottom to its top on July 7 in 91 days. It is now testing its trendline at 140.00. A sell signal may be given at the break of this trendline. Bank balance sheets have been stretched significantly. Remember that BKX bottomed at at 17.75 in the last financial crisis on March 9, 2009. It’s time to take profits. Super Cycles last about 26 years.
1:05 pm
SPX has crossed its trendline at 6260.00 – 6265.00. Should the SPX close beneath 6239.00 we would have a key reversal. Technical analysis indicates this may be a sell signal. While the margin seems thin, any additional decline may make the change in trend more evident.
8:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6299.70, then pulled back prion to the CPI report. All else considered until now, the current Master Cycle may have ended on Thursday, July 10 at 6290.22. The alternate view may be a spike higher to round number resistance at 6300.00 prior to a possible key reversal. The CPI will be examined carefully to see if the tariffs are having an impact on inflation. Here is the report.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, led by Tech with the biggest overnight news being that Trump is allowing NVDA to resume its (less advanced) H2O chip sales to China; there had been chatter of a chips-for-rare earths pact to thaw US/China trade relations. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, with NVDA jumping another +5.3% in pre-market trading, while AMD +3.5%, MRVL +2.85, AVGO +1.4% also gained. The balance of Mag7 is mostly higher; semis are poised to be the best sub-group, and cyclicals are higher with banks with a mild bid into earnings this morning. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens into CPI with JPM noting that some FICC client convos are pointing to a dovish CPI print. The USD is weaker and commodities are declining across all 3 complexes though precious, crude, and sugar remain bid. Today’s focus is the unofficial kick off 25Q2 earnings and Banks have a low bar to cross and CPI is not yet expected to reflect the expected inflation from the trade war.”
VIX futures slipped to 16.59 this morning. The CPI report has little discernible effect on the markets thus far. While a possible Master Cycle low may have been established on Thursday, the Cycles Model may allow a final probe lower.
TNX is declining this morning after expanding its Master Cycle low to yesterday at 44.47. It may retest the 200-day Moving Average at 43.47 or possibly a bit lower over the next 2-3 weeks.