The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Note I am going in for further radiation treatments this morning and will not return until after the market open.
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6241.60 thisa morning in a 50% retracement of its decline since last Thursday. The Cycles Model anticipates a further decline to late August. A sell signal may be made beneath 6200.00 with a diagonal trendline crossing.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures inch higher as the market tries to regain some losses a day after President Donald Trump escalated his trade rhetoric and threatened more charges on copper and pharmaceuticals. Trump also foreshadowed an update to the trade status, saying he “will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade” on Wednesday morning and with an additional number of countries to be released in the afternoon as we reach the 90-day deadline to Liberation Day. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are 0.2% higher, with Mag7 names trading higher premarket while semis are mixed; banks and industrials are boosting cyclicals. Europe is also trending higher (+80bps) for a third day, while Asia finished mostly lower (HSI -1%, with HS Tech -1.7%). Goldman writes that heavy focus on recent momentum unwind (the Goldman High Beta Momentum Pair Basket -4.5% yesterday and now down 8.3% mtd). Recent catalysts for the Momo Reversal seem to be: the move in back-end Rates / positioning / ongoing re-shuffling to start the quarter / and the big reversal lower in Banks yesterday. Elsewhere, some minor underperformance in haven assets suggests investors are not too concerned by what Trump may reveal later today. Spot gold loses $10 or so. Treasuries are steady with bond yields flat to up 1bp as the USD is indicated higher. Commodities are also higher in both Ags/Energy as metals are generally weaker post-copper tariff announcement. Trump’s 50% copper tariffs would be “extremely inflationary,” according to UBS O’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha CIO Bernie Ahkong, while Goldman Sachs expects inbound-US flows of the metal to accelerate as the incentive to “front-run” the tariff implementation has increased. Today’s macro data focus is on Fed Minutes, mtge applications, and inventories.”
VIX futures dropped to 16.10 this morning on day 251 if the Master Cycle. The Model shows a spike in volatility today. Should tghis be the bottom, we may see an eruption of volatility starting today.
TNX is pulling back from its high. A normal retracement may go to the mid-Cycle support at 43.34. However, there is an outside chance of a decline to the Cycle Bottom at 40.64 in the next couple of days, extending the Master Cycle to a possible new two-month low.