The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
11:20 am
BKX has bounced from its trading channel trendline and is currently challenging Intermediate resistance at 188.64. It may go nominally higher, suggsting a possible target at 191.00. However, the current Master Cycle may be running on fumes. A trendline break at 185.00 may offer a sell signal.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to a morning high at 7686.30, continuing its uptrend after a bounce from the trendline and Intermediate support at2619.14. This may be considered an aggressive buy while the crowd may be waiting for a breakout above its previous high at 7771.48 to commit a long position. Many are using calls to get leverage on this move.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are flats with Tech in line and small caps lagging even as bond yields dip 1bp across the curve, ignoring the continued rise in oil.”
NDX futures are testing yesterday’s low, but haven’t broken it. Tech earnings continue to rise, but investors are unwilling to commit thus far. That may change, should the current Cycle extend. The Cycles Model suggests the rally may resume for another 2-3 weeks. The Cycle Top resistance and upper trendline are in conjunction, currently at 31490.27 as a probable target for a likely probe higher.
The Premarket VIX is rising from the Triangle trendline as it may complete the current Master Cycle in the next week or so. The VIX fractal is very compressed and in need of some relief. This week’s surge in volatility, although somewhat reduced, may be a foretaste of action in the coming week or so.
The US 10-year Bond Yield has pulled back from its Master Cycle high, dropping beneath the Cycle Top support at 47.91. The Cycles Model places TNX between the Head & Shoulders neckline and the Cycle Top over the next two weeks. Should the neckline hold, the Head & Shoulders Target may be considered. The US Treasury’s preference for refinancing long-term debt with T-bills may leave the bond market subject to the overnight rate sooner than expected.
ZeroHedge notes, “A top Federal Reserve official said he would be “inclined” to keep interest rates on hold, highlighting divisions among the US central bank’s governors as they prepare for a crucial vote this month.”
Crude oil rose to 93.14 this morningas it continues it uptrend. It may test its July 23 high at 93.50 this week. Should it remain beneath it, Crude oil may trend sideways for another week. The longer view is that crude may continue higher, testing its Cycle Top at 110.93 by mid-October.
Gold has made a 50% retracement of last week’s decline, suggsting the bounce may be over. The Ccyles Model suggests a possible reversal may occur. Should gold decline beneath Intermediate support at 4308.46, it may taget the Cycle Bottom in the next week.
The Agriculture Indes may be pulling back to its neckline near 424.00. It has proven to be a highly volatile index that may have a few surprises left. Should the pullback stop at the necklne by this weekend, it may resume its uptrend toward the Head & Shoulders target. However, it may decline further, changing to a more powerful dynamic. We may know very soon which it may be.
Bitcoin may be attempting a final rise to or above the trendline at 81000.00, which represents major resistance. Should it break through, the trend may remain higher. However, the Cycles Model shows waning strength at this point. A break beneath 76000.00 tells us Bitcoin may be going lower. Bitcoin may have been the beneficiary of excess liquidity, which has now turned negative.