The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:41 am
BKX is testing its 52-day Moving Average at 187.90 this morning after making a possible Master Cycle high on Friday. A decline beneath the 52-day may produce an aggressive sell signal. Confirmation of that signal may lie beneath the trendline at 186.00. Liquidity may be getting thin with knock-on results showing in the BKX and in Bitcoin. Weakness has made an appearance today and may double down by the weekend. The new master Cycle may show up as a decline to the end of October.
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures went lower this morning, toward Intermediate support and the trendline at 7635.77. The bull market trend remains intact, but it is coming under pressure. While inflation risks are continuing to build, the Cycles Model suggests the SPX may go higher. The indicated target for the current rally may be the Cycle Top resistance at 7910.02 in the next week. however, should the Master Cycle extend, a potential target may be 8000.00 or higher.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures fell as Brent crude approached $100 a barrel, chasing Shanghai crude which is now trading above $102, reinforcing expectations that central banks will have to raise interest rates to contain inflation while a key CPI print looms on Friday.”
The premarket VIX rose above the Triangle trendline at 15.00, topping out at 15.94. Should it remain beneath the 53-day Moving Average at 16.30, it may resume its decline beneath the trading channel near 14.00. The Cycles Model suggests that the VIX may be nearing its Master Cycle terminus, but an extension is not out of the question.
The US 10-year Bond Yield has dropped beneath the Cycle Top support at 48.03 this mornig, taking pressure off Treasuries temporarily. The Cycles Model suggess a possible week of sideways-to-lower yields. The likelihood of a test of the Head & Shoulders neckline at 47.00 may be operative.
ZeroHedge remarks, “The latest global bond sell-off has revived the idea that markets are fretting over unsustainable public finances. As concerned as I am by this issue in the longer term, the recent bond market weakness at the moment should be seen more as a continuation of the long normalisation from the historic anomaly of the 2010s.”
The US Dollar Index may be testing its August 20 low. The Cycles Model does not anticipate a new low. However, the USD may show weakness over the nxt week or possibly longer. While the dollar debasement theme is still commonly held, the US dollar remains the strongest currency internationally. A bounce above the mid-Cycle support/resistance line at 99.18 may introduce a buy signal.
Crude oil broke out above its July high at 93.50 this morning, then pulled back. There may be a retest of the declining trendline near 84.50 before a resumption of the uptrend. What follows may be a resumption of a very strong probe toward the cycle Top resistance at 111.96.
ZeroHedge observes, “Geopolitical risks in the Gulf pushed Brent crude futures toward $100 a barrel overnight as Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launched new attacks on Saudi cities and economic infrastructure.”
Gold was repulsed at the mid-Cycle resistance at 4554.09 ovwer the weekend and may be resuming its downtrend. The current target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 4236.50. However, it may go lower. The Cycles Model suggests gold may be winding up its Master Cycle shortly.
Bitcoin has declined beneath its long-held trendline near 80000.00 and given a possible sell signal. A further decline beneath 76000.00 may confirm the sell. The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic decline should it break through that low. The new Master Cycle may extend to late October.
The Agricultural Index continues to consolidate above its Head & Shoulders neckline at 420.00. The Cycles Model infers a possible retest of the neckline before moving higher. Note that Trending Strength may return this weekend and may extend up to two more weeks.