The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
2:51 pm
A mini-meltdown may be forming with two weeks left to make a possible new low. SPX has crossed beneath Intermediate support at 7460.00, with even more weakness beneath the 52-day Moving Average currently at 7394.71. A target near 7100.00 is possible, shaking out those who re-entered the long side using leveraged ETFs.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are hovering beneath the upper trendline of the proposed Triangle formation near 7522.00. That may also be the terminus of theformer Master Cycle, allowing a reversal to take place. As noted earlier, the June 15 high, although higher than yesterday’s, may have been too early, as bother the DJIA and NDX made their highs more than a week later. The June 25 DJIA high marked the primary high. The dispersion of the highs suggests that this may not be the all-time high. The Cycles Model allows a 2-3 week decline that may shake out the weaker hands that expect a continuous rise in stocks.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures have reversed all overnight losses which were driven by the latest crash in South Korean stocks, which plunged 8% and closed at LOD, driven by a plunge in memory stocks.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating above yesterday’s low. Although it may go nominally lower, the Master Cycle may be completed nearer the Cycle Top, delaying the termination of the 2.5 year Triangle. This Triangle is on a Primary time scale (2-3 years) that is not recognized by most analysts, whose timeframe may be on a minor scale of 2-3 months, such as the SPX Triangle.
The US Dollar is testing the Head & Shoulders neckline just beneath 101.00, giving temporary relief to the dollar shorts. Should it remain above the neckline, however, the USD may resume its upward trend. In doing so, it may reach the Head & Shoulders target as early as August, creating a possible panic among the dollar shorts.
The US 10-year Bond Yield made a nominal new high this morning at 45.05 and immediately reversed. Should it decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 44.49 it may announce the end of the current Master Cycle. Should that be so, it may be evidence of a strong desire for a safe haven, both domestically (SPX) and internationally )USD).
Bitcoin surged higher this morning as it may be completing the correction to Intermediate resistance at 63503.00. The trend is still down and may resume, with strength, over the weekend.
Crude oil declined to 67.04 this morning, stretching the Master Cycle still further. Technically, crude may have met its downside limit in this decline. What follows may be panic rally into mid-August. The minimum target may be 130.00. Further analysis may come after the reversal.