The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7407.30 this morning after making a higher low on Friday. Two weeks ago it made a lesser high at 7577.92 in what may be an early Master Cycle high, unless a new high is made in the next week. Thus far, there is no agreement with the DJIA (See below).
The Industrials made a weekend high at 52130.07 thus far, beneath Thursday’s all-time high at 52655.66. So there is disagreement between the DJIA and the SPX last week, which is causing some confusion. It also suggests that, while the Industrials made a new all-time high last week it may not be the last. Equities may make a comeback, led by the NDX, while blue chips lag. The Cycles Model calls for a 2-3 week correction, not a bear market, prior to a possible recovery to new all-time highs.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher led by Tech as Mag7 leads the group higher and points to a reversal of last week’s profit-taking, as traders position for the end of the first half.”
The premarket VIX continues to consolidate, with a potential week of decline ahead. The target may be the trendline near 15.00. However, it may extend to a deeper level, as we have seen in gold. The Triangle formation is not complete,, as it tends to be drawn out.
The US Dollar may be testing its Cycle Top/neckline at 100.92 this morning. The Cycles Model suggests that, the Head & Shoulders formation may follow through to its target by early August.
The US 10-year Bond Yield may be consolidating, but still has a week or more to complete the current Master Cycle. A brief retest of the 52-day Moving Average t 44.39 may be in order, but the Model also allows for a retest of the Cycle Top at 45.62, due to the oversold condition.
Bitcoin is consolidating, on its way to test the Cycle Bottom at 55734.00. That may not be the end of the decline, however, as the Cycles Model projects the current downward shift to continue to early August. I had earlier suggested that a minimum decline may target 50000.00. However, a downward revision to 45000.00 may be in order.
Crude oil has risen from its proposed Master Cycle low on Friday. The ultra-long Triangle tail may be complete, leaving the longs bruised and shaken. Confirmation lies above the mid-Cycle support/resistance level at 74.69. The Model projects the rally may last to mid-August.
Gold may be consolidating this morning, with an oversold inclination to bounce. Should that be the case, its may test Intermediate resistance at 43.78.49 before resuming its decline. The Cycles Model infers that the decline may terminate by mid-July. The decline may target either the Cycle Bottom at 3768.08 ot the Ending Diagonal trendline approaching 3600.00.