The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures consolidated in a 22-point range around yesterday’s close. Domestic sentiment is bearish across the board, so who is doing the buying? A look at the drawdowns in various currencies show some possibilities. While the June drawdown in USD was -5.15%, the drawdown in Swiss Francs was only -4.3%. The Swiss are bankers for many Middle Eastern countries. The drawdown in Japanese Yen was -4.8%. That tells us that investors tn those currencies had less to lose and possibly more to gain investing in the US. The fact that the majority of yesterday’s gain was made overnight lends credence to that observation, as their markets precede ours.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7560.00. Long gamma is close by at 7570.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 7535.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are flat, pausing after a three-day rally with investors shifting their focus to this week’s FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first, which begins today.”
The premarket VIX is in consolidation after yesterday’s decline. The Cycles Model infers a further decline beneath the lower Triangle boundary. It may catch many investors wrong-sided when the reversal occurs.
The June 17 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.50. Short gamma resided from 15.00 to 19.00. Long gamma may begin above 20.00 and is well populated to 140.00.
The US 10-year Bond Yield c may be pausing above the 52-day moving Average at 44.20. Thus far, TNX has made a 2.5-year Triangle consolidation that remains unfinished. The final probe lower may target the lower Triangle trendline near 40.00 in early July.
Bitcoin reversed from its corrective bounce at 66907.94 yesterday. Confirmation of the decline may arrive in just a few days. If so, the downtrend may last to early August. Initial analysis suggests a decline to 50000.00 may be forthcoming.
Crude oil may be in its final stage of decline. The fractal appears complete, but may still extend to the mid-Cycle support at 74.30. Triangle tails are often brutal, since they go further and longer than expected. This is a shakeout par excellence. Prepare for an imminent reversal.
OilPrice.com reports, ”
- The Americas are replacing the Middle East as the key source of global oil supply, with crude exports from the Western Hemisphere hitting a record 14.5 million bpd while Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed.
- Trump’s broader energy strategy aims to weaken OPEC’s influence and cement U.S. dominance over global energy markets.
- Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil are emerging as the biggest growth engines, with Venezuela rebuilding output, Argentina rapidly expanding Vaca Muerta shale production, and Brazil reaching record production levels.”
