The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
1:30 pm
SPX may have made its Master Cycle low at 5415.66 (cash) late this morning. It may make yet another low before today’s session is closed. However, chances of nailing the exact low are slim. It’s time to find a spot to cover shorts and go long. Good trading!
10:25 am
SPX is headed for the 2-hour Cycle Bottom at 5408.70 today. This may be the area to cover shorts and go long. A lot of people are guessing what comes next. Most are extremely bearish. “Throwing in the towel” may be a good indicator of a change in trend.
ZeroHedge observes, “Apple shares are plunging almost 10% in premarket trading, as the iPhone maker is viewed as especially exposed to the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.”
7:45 am
SPX futures plummeted to an overnight low of 5440.10 as Trump delivered the “Declaration of Economic Independence” after hours, leading to massive selling of Tech names and hedge fund shorting across the board. The decline still has the ability to go near 5400.00 (revised) today. However, be prepared for a strong reversal near mid-day. Today is day 261 of the Master Cycle, suggesting a reversal may be imminent. This is the position from which to cover shorts and go long for an approximate 3-week correction after six weeks of decline.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5650.00. Long gamma may begin above 5675.00 while short gamma rules beneath 5600.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Well, Trump’s “liberation day” is here… and it has liberated countless traders of their net worth and risk assets: the market’s reaction to Trump’s newly-instituted “much worse than expected” reign of tariffs is nothing short of a bloodbath, with a global selloff hitting stock markets everywhere but especially in the US where conventional wisdom, at least early on, is that the recession will be worst. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 3.5%, while Nasdaq futures tumble 4%, but should really be down more: Pre-market, AAPL (-7.5%), AMZN (-5.6%) and TSLA (-4.6%) are among the worst performing stocks within Mag 7, which is red across the board. As Trump unveiled yesterday (after the close), all US imports will have a minimum 10% tariff, with additional duties for big trading partners. China faces a tariff of well above 50% on many goods; the EU is subjected to a 20% levy. Bond yields crash in anticipation of a looming recession, down 4-10bp lower across the board, the Bloomberg US Dollar index is down -1.6%, set for its biggest drop . Commodities are all also sharply lower: WTI -3.9%, silver -3.4%, even gold is back under $3000. On today’s calendar we get initial and con continuing jobless claims as well as the latest ISM Services data.”
VIX futures rose to 24.03 this morning and may challenge the Cycle Top resistance at 25.10. Today is day 258 of the current Master Cycle, suggesting a reversal may also be imminent.
The April 9 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00. Short gamma resided at 16.00-18.00. Long gamma begins at 20.00 and extends to 30.00, where it is quite strong.
Bitcoin rose to its mid-Cycle resistance at 284.56. It has up to two weeks left in its Master Cycle. The Cycles Model suggests the Bitcoin may go higher, with the 100-day Moving Average at 93206.87 as a potential target. There are no alternate views at this time.
TNX futures declined to an overnight low of 40.33, potentially making its Master Cycle low on day 259 of the current Cycle. The Cycles Model suggests an approximate two weeks of rally from the low. What makes it unique is that there are several indicators of strength in the next two weeks.
USD extended its Master Cycle low today to 101.07 futures and 101.37 cash. The decline may be complete, or nearly so. The USD suffered a sharp decline since Trump announced his new tariff policy. However, with that behind us, adjustments may be made that may normalize the USD position. The Cycles Model suggests a rising USD through mid-May.
The Nikkei 225 Index plunged beneath 35000.00 in overnight trading, dropping as low as 33729.50. There is a double Head & Shoulders formation here that indicates serious weakness in the Nikkei.
The EuroStoxx 50 Index fell over 3% in overnight trading toward the ETF mid-Cycle support at 51.17. It has been on a sell signal the past week, so this shoul not be a surprise. The Cycles Model suggests the decline may continue through the month of May.