The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:05 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures have declined to a morning low of 5581.50 thus far. While the risk remains that the SPX may decline to the Cycle Bottom at 5343.93, today is the day to begin shedding the shorts. Trump’s “Liberation Day” looms big at 4:00 pm. No matter how this is spun, the effect of the tariffs may do much for the US economic image and attract even more capital to the DJIA while lesser amounts may funnel into the SPX and NDX. The majority of the money will go into the 30 Industrials because these stocks are the most stable.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5645.00. Long gamma begins at 5660.00 while short gamma resides beneath 5600.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks resumed their slide and Treasury yields held near one-month lows with just hours to go before President Trump’s tariffs tariff announcement, amid swirling speculation over the details of the proposed trade action. As of 8:00am, S&P futures traded 0.5% lower; tech underperformed sending Nasdaq futs down 0.7% with Mag 7 all lower with TSLA (-1.0%) and NVDA (-0.6%) being the biggest laggards; Newsmax dropped 25%, pausing a blinding IPO rally that briefly pushed the company above Fox Corp. European and Asian stocks both slumped. The Dollar sank and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady after falling on Tuesday to the lowest since early-March. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower, while precious metals are mostly higher (silver +1.0%) and gold just shy of its record high. All eyes on the Rose Garden event “Make American Wealthy Again” at 4PM with Trump delivering his announcement on tariffs. On today’s data calendar, we get ADP (exp. 120k) and Factory Orders (0.5%, ex trans 0.4%).”
VIX futures reached a morning high at 21.98, remaining beneath the Cycle Top at 25.08. Equity drawdown risk remains high for the next few days, suggesting the VIX may go higher. However, today is day 257 in the Master Cycle, suggesting a turn lower by the end of the week.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00. Short gamma resides between 16.00 and 18.00. Long Gamma begins at 20.00 and has large footprints all the way to 30.00.
The 10-year Treasury Note futures sank to 41.22 this morning. Today is day 258 in the Master Cycle, suggesting a strong reversal may be imminent. While there are no immediate indicators of a low, the Cycles Model suggests a Master Cycle low may be in place by the end of the week. A cross above the mid-Cycle resistance at 42..16 offers a potential buy signal for higher yields.
Bitcoin may be consolidating beneath Intermediate resistance at 85070.00 this morning. The probable pathway for the next week may be to rise as high at the 100-day Moving Average at 93387.29 prior to a strong reversal.
Gold futures may have reached a lesser high this morning at 3166.69, short of yesterday’s high at 3177.00. The numbers are not yet final, due to the tariff announcement after the close. So we wait for the CME close and the announcement. Futures may reach the trendline at 3200.00 tonight while the cash market remains lower.