The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:57 am
SPX may have completed Path 1. The low thus far was 5118.78, accomplishing the target of 5119.25. There may be another test of the low. If the trendline holds, there may be a 2-week rally that may test the 1987 trendline at 5500.00. A buy signal may be offered above the Cycle Bottom resistance at 5330.08.
Should the SPX go lower, here is a likelihood tat SPX may be taking path 2, which allows a much deeper decline.
10:26 am
BKX is crashing. The problem is that the current Master Cycle has at least another week to go. The next support at 101.05 may not hold at this rate. Should BKX go lower, the next support may be near 70.00.
10:11 am
NDX continues its pace of decline to a possible target at 17435.00, potentially entering the bear Market (-20%). It has fallen through the Cycle Bottom support and the August 5 low appears to be the next support level. A Goldman trader quipped, “…the world/market is changing every 15 minutes…”
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures made a morning low of 5174.40 thus far, shoeing the characteristics of a third Wave. However, there are at least two alternate paths being proposed by today’s action thus far. The first (and highest confidence) path is a low today near the August 5th low at 5119.26, ending the current Master Cycle on day 262. This suggests a two-week rally in the new Master Cycle before rolling over into a panic decline.
The Second path suggests the Master Cycle may have completed early on March 25 (day 252). That suggests a two week further decline in the new Master Cycle. This infers a take-down of sorts that may go much lower.
SPX is deep into short gamma with massive put holdings every 50 points down to 5100.00. The largest is 35,469 put contracts at 5100.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “For a few hours it seemed like we could even stabilize, if only a bit, ahead of today’s scheduled main event: the March jobs report at 8:30am ET. And then all hell broke loose at 6:08am when this Bloomberg headline hit:
- *CHINA ANNOUNCES EXTRA 34% TARIFFS ON US GOODS
In other words, far from seeking concessions, Beijing is now looking to escalate the trade war further, and forcing Trump to double down with even harsher retaliatory tariffs on China of his own, which at this point may push the blended tariff rate on Chinese goods above 100%.
What followed instantly was sheer, unadulterated liquidation panic:
- *S&P 500 FUTURES DECLINE 4.1%, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES DOWN 4.6%
- *COPPER PLUNGES MORE THAN 5%, BIGGEST LOSS SINCE JULY 2022
- *US 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.498%, LOWEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2022
- *BRENT OIL DROPS BELOW $65 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 2021
- *US CREDIT RISK GAUGE JUMPS MOST SINCE REGIONAL BANKING CRISIS
- *STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX FALLS 5.2%, MOST SINCE MARCH 2020
Instead of writing, we’ll let the charts do the talking, summarizing the bloodbath so far. The S&P is set to record losses on six of the past seven weeks.”
VIX futures rose to 32.68 this morning, but eased back under 30.00 at this writing. While the SPX is making record lows, the VIX hasn’t panicked, yet. Should the SPX decline to 5100.00, the VIX may very well match the August 5 high at 65.73.
The April 9 options chain shows Max Pain at 22.00. Short gamma resides from 16.00 to 21.00. Long gamma occupies the space from 23.00 to 30.00.
Bitcoin did not reach a new low in the overnight market. Instead, it may have reversed course to go higher. Should that be so, a new buy signal may be made with a rally above Intermediate resistance at 84882.00. Bitcoin has another week to go in its current Master Cycle. The potential target may be the 100-day Moving Average at 93045.41.
TNX futures made a morning low at 38.60 while the cash market made a low of 38.86, very near the rising trendline beneath it. Today is day 260 in the Master Cycle, very near the 258-day average. What may come next is a 2-week reversal that may challenge the Cycle Top.
Gold May have made its Master Cycle top yesterday, at 3163.99 on day 260 of its former Master Cycle. Today is fell to a low of 3089.00 before a minor bounce. The Cycles Model suggests a 1-month decline which may break the uptrend. A sell signal may be obtained beneath the Cycle Top at 3050.00.