3:00 pm
SPX has stalled just beneath a possible target at 6052.00, but remains above short term support at 6034.42. The Cycles indicate a reversal may be made by/near the closing today. A decline beneath the Short term gives an aggressive sell signal while a decline beneath the Intermediate support/trendline at 6002.11 may be a confirmed sell signal.
8:00 am The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Morning and Christmas blessings to all of you!!
NDX futures declined to 21648.80 this morning after having reversed from the Cycle Top at 21834.46, leaving the anticipated Master Cycle high. The Reversal may be considered an aggressive sell, reducing long positions. The sell signal is confirmed beneath Intermediate support at 21193.08.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 21775.00 Long gamma may begin above 21800.00 while short gamma resides beneath 21750.00.
ZeroHedge comments, “When most analysts discuss Tesla, they focus on new vehicles or the electric vehicle company’s advancements in autonomy. Yet, according to Launch i/o CEO Jeff Lutz, one of the most significant—and under-discussed—developments at Tesla is happening not in its design studios or on the road, but in its factories.”
SPX futures have declined to 6006.40 this morning after reversing from a probable Master Cycle high at 6043.40. Today is day 251 which is within the range most commonly achieved for a complete Master Cycle. While the reversal does not yet offer a sell signal, this is a secondary high from which longs may be sold. A confirmed sell signal comes beneath Intermediate support at 5994.30. The 50-day Moving Average lies at 5930.10, beneath which offers the most common recognition of a sell signal. The Cycles Model makes these signals clearer as we witness a Cyclical reversal prior to the decline beneath the supports mentioned above.
Today’s options chain shows the much-contested 6000.00 offering Max Pain. Long gamma pulls ahead above 6050.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 5950.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures and Treasuries dropped as muted trading resumed after the Christmas holiday, with investors looking to initial jobless claims data and a government bond auction later on Thursday. At 8:00am, S&P futures fell 0.3%; the index closed 1.1% higher on Tuesday, extending this year’s advance to 27%, and on pace for the best full-year return this century. Nasdaq futures slipped 0.4% after adding 1.4% on Tuesday, as a bout of selling started after the Europe open. Most major markets in Europe are still shut for holidays. Treasuries extended their selloff, pushing 10Y yields to a fresh 6 month high of 4.63%, a level which will start denting the Christmas rally meltup. The dollar also gained as the Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a new two year high. The only even on today’s calendar is jobless claims at 8:30am.”
VIX futures made a morning high of 15.53 after completing its Master Cycle low on Tuesday at 14.27. A buy signal may be made at mid-Cycle resistance at 16.24. A confirmed buy may be made above the 50-day Moving Average at 16.91. Today is already showing itself to be e day of strength. More will come after the New Year. The new Master Cycle may last until the end of March.
The December 31 options chain shows Mas Pain at 20.00. Short gamma is found between 14.00 and 19.00 with high conviction Long gamma may begin above 22.00 and is strong to 35.00.
The holiday Bitcoin bounce was turned back at Intermediate resistance at 98317.93 and is testing the 50-day Moving Average at 95067.969. A breakdown beneath the 50-day may produce a sharp 1-week decline with the nearest support at the mid-Cycle level at 71299.50.
TNX futures rose to 46.43 this morning. The Cycles Model supports the rally through the week of January 6 with a burst of trending strength this weekend. The minimum target appears to be 50.00. Higher targets may be sought.
ZeroHedge tells us, “Powell is admitting that inflation is still too high, but the Fed still plans to cut interest rates by .25%. So why are mortgage rates going up?
The Fed has turned hawkish relative to its recent rhetoric, resisting to slash interest rates as low as it had envisioned. Although it’s continuing to cut, the Fed’s actions primarily influence short-term interest rates, such as the federal funds rate. This is the rate at which banks lend to one another overnight. These short-term rates affect a wide range of borrowing costs including those on credit cards, car loans, and adjustable-rate mortgages.
However, most mortgage rates, particularly those for fixed-rate loans, are more closely tied to long-term bond yields such as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. And right now, 10-year Treasury yields are soaring.”
Gold futures may have made an early master Cycle low on December 19. However, the next few days may tell us whether it may attempt a probe to the 50-day Moving Average at 2682.17 to actually complete the Cycle. The positioning of a Cycle high this week may offer a very bearish setup for gold in the month of January.