1:25 pm
Bitcoin has declined beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 95440.78 after a week-long effort to hold at that level. The sell signal is confirmed with a lot of empty space beneath it.
1:08 pm
SPX has declined beneath the lower trendline of the 4-month Ending Diagonal at 6001.14, confirming its sell signal. Additional confirmation comes at a decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 5943.00. Pension rebalancing may be to blame for the sudden drop-off in stocks. It is estimated that between $20 billion and $30 billion must be sold by year-end.
7:30 am The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Christmas Morning!
NDX futures have declined to 21670.80 thus far, after being repelled by the Cycle Top resistance at 21867.85. It is on an aggressive sell signal, suggesting a reduction in long positions. A decline beneath the upper trendline near 21300.00 adds further confirmation to the aggressive sell. Intermediate support lies ar 21212.11 where the sell signal becomes confirmed.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Big tech companies are aggressively investing billions of dollars in AI data centers to meet the escalating demand for computational power and infrastructure necessary for advanced AI workloads.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the total AI capital expenditures and data center operating costs for Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon from January to August 2024.”
SPX futures have made a low this morning at 6015.40 thus far. It has fallen beneath short-term support at 6034.47, placing it on an aggressive sell signal after making a retracement and Master Cycle high at 6049.75. A confirmed sell signal awaits beneath Intermediate and trendline support at 6002.06. The new Master Cycle suggests a decline through the first week of February.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures declined after Thursday’s muted session on Wall Street, while markets in Europe and Asia advanced in muted holiday trading as the year draws to a close. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were down 0.3%, after ending Thursday flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% in quiet post-holiday session as mixed jobless claims data did little to change bets on the Fed’s policy outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a seven-month high around 4.60%, and the dollar was steady, on track for its best year since 2015. Oil reversed Thursday’s losses and was set to gain. The macro calendar is quiet: we get the advance goods trade balance, as well as wholesale and retail inventories.”
VIX futures consolidated this morning within yesterday’s trading range. While VIX is due to move higher, the Cycles Model suggests relative quiet until the week of January 6. The options chain reveals the path of lest resistance for the VIX is to remain beneath 20 for the next week.
Bitcoin challenged the 50-day Moving Average at 95478.95 this morning before bouncing to 97351.00. It is due to reverse lower in the next week, possibly from a higher level. Thus far overhead resistance is at Intermediate support/resistance at 98203.55. However, it may venture to the Cycle Top at 101348.84 before reversing down. Bitcoin remains on an aggressive sell signal, suggesting the bounces are places to reduce exposure.
TNX is hovering near 46.00 this morning. The Cycles Model suggests two more weeks of strength to end the current Master Cycle. The top of the trading band is at 47.81, a likely target. However, there is the distinct possibility of reaching 50.00 in that time period.
ZeroHedge reports, “The final coupon auction of 2024 is now the history books and on the day yields blew out to 6 months highs and just shy of the highest level of 2024, it is probably not a surprise that demand was stellar.
Stopping at a high yield of 4.532, this was – not surprisingly after the Fed’s hawkish pivot – the highest yield since May. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.532 by 2.1bps, the biggest stop through since January 2023. It was also the 4th consecutive stop for the 7 year tenor, the longest such stretch on record.”
