8:45 am The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Morning and Merry Christmas!
SPX futures rose to a morning high at 5981.80, testing the 4-month trendline at 5982.00. The December 20 high was 5982.06. Should it stop at/near 5982.00, it would create a flat correction, finishing the bounce from 5832.30 and possibly the Master Cycle, as well. Holiday trading may be unpredictable, so an alternate possibility may be a punch through the trendline to 6000.00 in very light trading.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures traded flat in muted pre-holiday trading, signaling another subdued open on Wall Street after Monday’s tech-led rally. As of 8:00am, contracts on the S&P 500 gained about 0.1% and those on the Nasdaq 100 were 0.2% higher. American Airlines shares fell as much as 5.5% in premarket trading after the company grounded all flights nationwide, however the stock then rebounded after the grounding was promptly lifted. European bourses, at least those that are open, and Asian markets both gained. 10Y yields rose 2 basis points to trade above 4.60% for the first time since May, while the US dollar also gained. Oil was flat and bitcoin reversed some of yesterday’s losses. It’s a quiet calendar with just the Richmond Fed mfg index and the Philadelphia Fed non-mfg activity update.”
VIX futures made a morning low at 16.58, possibly creating a Master Cycle low. There may be a lower pivot at the mid-Cycle support at 16.24, an approximate 75% retracement. The advice, “Buy the dip.” applies here. The Cycles Model offers a day of strength on Thursday. Should we have a Cycle pivot today, the outcome on Thursday may be surprising. What is more, the new Master Cycle is due to rally to the end of March.
Bitcoin is on a bounce from its 50-day Moving Average at 94034.34 this morning. There are two possible targets. The first (and most likely) is Intermediate resistance at 98339.82. The alternate resistance is the Cycle Top at 101108.16. The bounce may be finished within the next week. Once accomplished, a decline may impose itself until mid-February. A decline to the Cycle bottom is possible. Contrary to popular opinion, Bitcoin will never take the place of the USD. It is merely a popular trading platform that may lose all of the profits listed below.
ZeroHedge remarks, “According to Whale Alert, the average profit per BTC is at an all-time high of $67,088, at the time of writing.
“The Potential Profit per Token graph shows the potential profit that holders could make per token if they sold at a specific time,” Whale Alert’s website explains.
Whale Alert has further calculations on this metric that can be found here.
To put this in perspective, this is more than the average American salary in 2024, which is $62,027.”
BKX may be completing its retracement to the 50-day Moving Average at 129.51 sometime this week. Once complete, it may perform a slingshot move to the Cycle Bottom at 90.91 in the next month.
TNX is advancing to new highs this morning. The Cycles Model suggests that TNX may continue to rally in strength through the first full week of January. The closest target may be the Cycle Top at 47.74. However, a Wave 3 cannot be the smallest Wave. Therefore, it is likely to have a minimum range of 50.00 (equal to Wave 1).
ZeroHedge remarks, “#4 Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer just lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks…
Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.
A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.”