2:52 pm
Bitcoin has fallen beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 93417.92. Its a confirmed sell.
8:00 am The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Morning and Merry Christmas!
SPX futures rose to 5967.00 over the weekend session and may have begun its decline. Friday’s short-covering action was defended at the lower trendline of the 4-month Ending Diagonal formation at/near 5980.00. The SPX did not cross beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 6921.00 at the close on Friday. While it is possible that another attempt may be made at the Diagonal structure, the place to watch today is the 50-day Moving Average, beneath which the decline resumes. Today is day 248 of the Master Cycle, leaving approximately 10 more calendar days in this Cycle. There will be shortened holiday weeks and light trading that may encourage the powers-that-be to close the year on a positive note (above the 50-day). Should the Master Cycle remain above the 50-day and end near the Ending Diagonal, there is no doubt that January may be a very bearish month.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5950.00. Long gamma may begin above 5975.00 while short gamma may begin beneath 5925.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures entered the last week of 2024 gingerly and steady in subdued trading as traders, already on the ski slopes or in various warm, non-extradition countries, assessed the outlook for economic growth and interest rates. The dollar gained after a US government shutdown was averted in the last minute. As of 8:10am, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 added 0.4% and those on the S&P 500 were little changed, erasing an earlier gain, following a sharp rebound on Friday after the core PCE index increased at the slowest pace since May. Europe’s stock benchmark edged higher. Market gains will likely be capped by the continued rise in rates which has seen 10Y yields rise 2bps to 4.55%. Oil, gold and bitcoin all dropped while a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rose after sliding 0.5% on Friday. Today’s macro data include the Chicago Fed, Durable Goods, New Home Sales and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence.”
VIX futures traded in a range between 18.06 and 18.99 over the weekend after closing near the 50% retracement value of last week’s rally at 18.44. The Retracement may be complete, leaving the VIX with its next target at the Cycle Top (23.58) and beyond.
The December 24 options chain shows Max Pain at 18.00. Short gamma resides from 14.00 to 18.00 while long gamma begins at 20.00.
TNX futures traded between 45.19 and 45.54 over the weekend. Should TNX go higher, it may reach the Cycle Top at 47.69 before correcting to the trendline at 44.20. There are three more weeks left in the current Master Cycle in bonds. A possible target may be 5.00 by mid-January.
Bitcoin declined to 93633.39 over the weekend, probing the 50-day Moving Average at 93462.00. There is likely to be a bounce to retest the Intermediate resistance at 98288.62 or the Cycle Top at 100720.70 this week. Today is day 259 of the current Master Cycle, so that move may happen within the week.
USD futures have pulled back modestly at it tests the Cycle Top at 107.95. It is due to reach its peak on New Years eve, the end of tis Master Cycle, where it may end in strength.
9:37 am
BKX is bouncing higher, as it retests the 50-day Moving Average at 129.05 and possibly the upper trendline at 132.00. The bounce may be finished by year’s end with a new Master Cycle to follow.
I may not be available to coment until afteer the Christmas holiday, so I hope that you enjoy yours!