August 30, 2023

7:45 am

Good Morning!

NDX may have closed out its Master Cycle on day 259 above the 50-day and Intermediate resistance at 15301.76.  It has completed a 60.6% (near Fibonacci) retracement and may be ready to resume its decline.  With the Master Cycle complete, a confirmed sell signal awaits beneath the 50-day at 15214.04.

NDX futures made an overnight high at 15429.50, an approximate 63.4% retracement before easing down.  The futures are still above Intermediate support/resistance at 15301.76.  An aggressive sell signal awaits there, with confirmation beneath the 50-day.

Today’s op-ex shows Maximum investor Pain at 15375.00.  Long gamma starts at 15390.00 while short gamma begins at 15300.00.  Note how the 50-day matches short gamma.

ZeroHedge notes, “Oversold is gone

On August 20 (here) we pointed out just how oversold the market was. Fast forward to today, and the RSI has moved sharply higher. The question is whether or not we see overbought again?

Source: Refinitiv

NASDAQ seasonality

Right on time….although the more interesting part of the chart comes after September.”

 

 

SPX futures rose to an overnight high of 4507.20, overshooting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 4503.40.  It has since eased beneath 4500.00.  An aggressive sell signal awaits at Intermediate support at 4588.95, which upgrades to a confirmed sell signal beneath the 50-day at 4459.79.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 4475.00.  Long gamma starts at 4490.00, while short gamma begins at 4450.00.

 

VIX futures consolidated beneath the 50-day at 14.76 this morning.  It has met its downside target, a 74% retracement.  It is now set up to rise above the Cup with Handle trendline.  A buy signal awaits above the 50-day Moving Average at 14.76.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 16.00.  While there is no shor gamma, long gamma becomes very strong at 18.00.

 

TNX has risen off the Head & Shoulder neckline, possibly activating that formation.  The Cycles Model suggests trending strength returning next week , leading to a Master Cycle high in mid-September.

ZeroHedge reports, “If there was any concern that today’s post-JOLTS yield plunge would lead to reduced demand for today’s closely watched belly-of-the-curve auction, they evaporated moments ago when demand for 7Y paper was almost off the charts.

Pricing at a high yield of 4.212%, today’s sale of $36BN in 7Y notes priced at the highest yield on record, and about 13bps above the July auction which stopped at 4.087%. And despite concerns that a lack of concession could lead to lower demand, the auction stopped through the 4.232% When Issued by 2bps, the widest stop through since January, with just one tail in the past 4 auctions.

The bid to cover was a solid 2.66, the highest since Jan 2023 and another indication of the solid demand for today’s sale.”

 

USD futures have declined to 103.04 thus far after making its Master Cycle high on Friday August 25.  It may find support at the mid-cycle at 102.76 although it may go lower.  Trending strength may return later this week or early next week.

 

 

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