March 31, 2023

3:35 pm

BKX did not exceed yesterday’s Master Cycle high.  Remain bearish.

ZeroHedge remarks,s “Practically on cue, politicians began their public hearings yesterday about the recent banking crisis.

This was so predictable; every time there’s a major crisis, Congressmen book a committee meeting to express their shock and outrage. They pass new laws to prevent a future crisis. Then their new laws fail to work properly, so they hold another public hearing to express more outrage.

This is the cycle of political problem solving, and yesterday was no exception.”

 

3:25 pm

SPX reaches the downtrend line.  Take appropriate action.  Time and targets have been met.  The 50-day Moving Average is at 4016.65, the sell signal is over 2% beneath current levels.

ZeroHedge comments, “While the bearish case for stocks holds sway, there are valid reason to hold the opposite view. And in the spirit of understanding we will offer both below.”

 

7:45 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures surged to an overnight high of 13018.10, but has since subsided beneath that level.  The probability of having reached its maximum gain is high and downside risk is elevated.   The NDX Hi-Lo Index closed at -78.00 yesterday while the NYSE Hi-Lo may have peaked yesterday, closing at 28.00.  Neither index looks healthy.  The Cycles Model call for a decline through the end of April.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Stocks are prone to significant further downside as overly optimistic hopes of a mild recession and an end to inflation fail to materialize.

Stocks are always glass-half-full. Despite rapid rate rises and pockets of acute stress in the banking sector, they appear to be expecting only a modest downturn and an end to the inflationary regime. Even more rose-tintedly, earnings are behaving as if the recession is already behind us.

Equity markets, though, have a habit of remaining jubilant right up until the asteroid strikes (October 2007?). So you don’t have to be a total killjoy to raise some questions to avoid getting sucked into what is likely to be another bear-market rally.”

 

SPX futures rallied to an overnight high of 4064.40 before sliding back near breakeven.  There is room for a probe to the Wave 4 high at 4078.49, but time may be running out.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline may ensue that lasts the entirety of April.  Buckle up!

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 4015.00.  Calls gain the ascendancy at 4025.00 while puts gain ascendancy at 4010.00 with short gamma beginning at 4000.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures extended gains for the 3rd straight day and are on pace to rise 6 of the past 7 days, led by the Nasdaq 100 which is set for its best March in more than a decade as investors bet on a softening in central-bank policy amid worries about a recession while the slowdown in new money market fund injections eased fears about the ongoing bank run.

Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.3% as of 7:45 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures also rose 0.2% hitting the highest level in 6 weeks.”

 

 

VIX futures rose from its overnight low at 19.02 to post a probable gain this morning.  A buy signal awaits investors above the 50-day Moving Average at 20.71.  The Cycles Model sows the VIX matching inversely with the SPX through the month of April.

 

TNX may have found support as it probes the 200-day Moving Average at 35.04.  Should that be so, TNX may resume its rally.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may continue through mid-April.  The ultimate target may be 53.16, its June 2007 high.  A 17.2 year Cycle would target August 2024 as the high.

 

USD futures are consolidating under overhead resistance at 103.20 (the 50-day Moving Average).  USD is in a correction that, when finished, may allow the uptrend to resume through the end of April.

 

 

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2 Responses to March 31, 2023

  1. urotech says:

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    Also, thanks for allowing me to comment!

  2. urotech says:

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