The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
10:26 am
The Ag Index is moving higher toward the Head & Shoulders neckline and the terminus of the current master cycle, which may occur in a matter of days. A clean break above the proposed neckline may set the next rally in motion. However, market liquidity may bring a correction should the move be marginal.
ZeroHedge reports, “Hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat (SRW) in more than two years as severe drought intensified across key breadbasket regions in the Great Plains and Midwest.”
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7121.70 this morning as it challenges its Cycle Top resistance at 7109.42. While the SPX has met its upside target, it may have another week to burn off some additional time to complete the Cycle as it probes resistance. The sideways consolidation may be broken on Friday as a surge of volatility may hit the tape. Expectations for earnings are ratcheting higher, predicting 15-20% growth. However, predictions may fall sho6t of reality. The squeeze is over. Now managing expectations will be more difficult.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7075.00-7080.00. Long gamma begins above 7100.00 while hsort gamma rules beneath 7050.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher with earnings in full swing and AI winners soaring. Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before its Taco Tuesday expiration, while maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after plans for peace talks fell apart.”
Premarket VIX is consolidating after yesterday’s sharp move higher. It may test the mid-Cycle support at 18.36, the 61.8% retracement value before moving higher. Compression in the VIX may be ending today.
Today is options expiration for the VIX. The April 29 op-ex is now in play. Short gamma is non-existent. Long gamma begins above 18.00 and is showing institutional participation to 35.00.
The US 10-year Bond Yield is consolidating this morning after a sharp reversal from Friday’s retracement low. Intermediate resistance at 42.84 seems to have a hold on the TNX. Should it prove resistance, TNX may revisit the trendline near 41.90 before the weekend. Volatility may emerge by early next week. A move above resistance gives a buy signal for TNX.
USD is pressing against the 200-day Moving Average at 98.54 as it moves away from Friday’s master Cycle low. A breakout reinforces the buy signal in the dollar and may be confirmed above the 52-day Moving Average at 98.73.
Bitcoin rose t6o 78534.00 this morning, making a new retracement high. Bitcoin may be running out the time element in its current Master Cycle and may be finished within a week. There is a fractal resistance as it approaches 80000.00. While the mid-Cycle resistance may “pull” BTC toward it, the rally may not reach it.
Crude oil is consolidating after a sharp move out of its Master Cycle low. The rising tension in the Middle East may be spilling over into the price of oil, as trending strength comes back this weekend and a possible panic rally next week.
ZeroHedge observes, “We knew there was a reason why China had accumulated a cool 1.5 billion barrels in its strategic petroleum reserve: the reason, to become the world’s strategist petroleum reserve when the time arises… for a price of course.”
Gold had tested its Intermediate resistance at 4783.00 this morning, then eased back down. The Cycles Model suggests more selling may take place over the next two weeks. It is possible that gold may break down to 3800.00-4000.00. Gold had been selling in March while the price of oil was rising, suggesting that central banks may have been selling gold to buy oil. Another panic in the price of oil may bring gold down again.