The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
12:00pm
BKX surged above its trendline and Cycle Top at 171.00, making a top at 172.61. This move is suspect, since it occurred at the very last day of an extended Master Cycle. For all intents and purposes, this may be the last day of the rally from the April 7 low. A sell signal may be offered should BKX decline beneath that double support (171.00).
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6881.60 over the weekend, testing resistance at 6900.00. The top view is that SPX may resume its decline through the end of January. A rally above 6900.00 may challenge the outlook. Geopolitical events over the weekend may have pushed the confidence levels back into positive territory. However, that is yet to be seen. A decline beneath support at 6825.00 brings back the bears.
ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks, US futures, gold, the dollar and bitcoin all rose after the purge of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro fanned geopolitical risk, while renewed momentum in the AI trade powered tech heavyweights in Asian hours.”
VIX futures have risen to a weekend high at 15.27, beneath the trendline near 15.40. A buy signal awaits above the trendline. The Cycles Model suggests trending strength may be returning today with subsequent redoubling over the next several weeks.
Crude oil futures rose to a weekend high at 57.97 at the news of Maduro’s arrest, still beneath Intermediate resistance at 58.23. Crude has been bouncing on the Head & Shoulders neckline at 56.30. A further decline beneath it defines its outcome over the next two months.
ZeroHedge comments, “Early Saturday morning, we got news that the US launched air strikes on Venezuelan military sites and captured Nicolas Maduro alive. They then took over control of the massive oil reserves in Venezuela, which makes up a whopping 20% of the world’s reserves, larger than Saudi Arabia or Iran.”
The US 10-year treasury bond yield hit a weekend high at 41.96 before easing back down. The Cycles Model suggests a rising strength in the yield, precipitating in a possible breakout as early as tomorrow. This may be more of a game-changer than the price of oil.
US Dollar futures rose to 98.86 this morning, crossing above the mid-Cycle resistance at 98.67, offering a potential buy signal. However, the Cycles Model infers that a pullback to 98.18-98.25 may be necessary before forging higher.
Bitcoin rose above the 52-day Moving Average at 89192.00 as (communist) money may be fleeing South and Central America after this weekend event. Venezuela may be the repository of some 60 billion in bitcoin. One of bitcoin’s features is that it lends itself to money laundering across borders. A normal (flat) retracement may go as high at 94600.00.