The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
3:10 pm
BKX made a 67% retracement of its initial decline from its ATH. It may be ready to begin its decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 155.54 this afternoon. BKX is on an aggressive sell signal. There are a lot of mistakes hiding under the rug. The minimum action may be to sell shares.
8:00 am
Good Morning and Happy New Year!
SPX futures spent the holiday session bouncing back toward resistance at 6900.00, making it to 6892.00 before easing back down, a 47% retracement of its week-long decline. There may be yet another challenge of resistance this morning prior to resuming its decline. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement may reach 6907.00. Today’s action may lead into the first panic Cycle of 2026. A breakdown of the double support at 6800.00 may set off a cascading decline through the month of January. Wall Street and the MSM have kept bad news at bay to the year-end. Fourth quarter earnings may only be the tip of the iceberg.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6875.00. Long gamma may begin above 6890.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6850.00.
VIX futures eased back from its New Year’s Eve high at 15.17 to to a morning low at 14.76. Trendline resistance may be at 15.50, above which the buy signal is confirmed. Many speculators are waiting for a cross above the 52-day Moving Average at 17.56 to trigger their buy signal, while most may wait for at breakout above 18.90, where the trade may become crowded. The initial surge in strength for 2026 may arrive over the weekend. The January VIX Cycle is punctuated with weekend surges.
The January 7 options chain shows short gamma from 14.00 to 15.00. Long gamma resides above 16.00 and stretches to 30.00.
TNX futures surged to 41.96 over the holiday before easing to a low of 41.59 thus far. TNX may be poised for an imminent breakout, possibly over the next 24 hours. This will be a game changer, as it will add stress to the financial markets, especially the banks. A major bank had liquidated its entire deposit with the Federal Reserve in September to “lock in” the yields in treasury bonds. It may have made the bottom tick in the TNX. That trade may need to be bailed out in the near future.
Bitcoin probed to its 52-day Moving Average at 89796.00 this morning before pulling away from that resistance. Today may be a high volatility day, having been repelled from overhead resistance. A reversal may be sudden and strong, picking up strength by mid-week. The Cycles Model infers a probable decline to the first week of February.
Silver futures appear to be resisted beneath the trendline near 75.00 after its weekend rout from the peak at 83.62. It is on an aggressive sell signal with a very short correction until mid-January. The Cycles Model anticipates a correction down toward the trendline near 55.00. It has been found that an unnamed major player was caught short on December 28 in a margin call that liquidated its entire portfolio. It will probably be blamed on a rogue trader with the institution declaring innocence. The next phase is likely to be even more dangerous as shortages may develop and governments may attempt to shut down trading in silver.